At 4:55 pm, the rain rate was 2.95″/ hour … At 5:15 it was 3.13″ an hour. Hopefully, just a short-lived cell.whew!
From Dave Allen of Pacific Valley School
Here is another graphic
I know I haven’t seen the sun up here in a week! More this afternoon and evening, then a break (although I have to point out that every so called “break” predicted thus far, it has rained, at least up here), another storm on Monday/Tuesday and then another on Thursday.
Per the CHP website, the highway is closed in both directions due to three slides between MM 38 and 42. (South of Nepenthe, between Partington and Grimes Canyon) Barricades are in place.
This is the link to the reports. There are three parts.
pfeiffer fire report on cause
Here is the general link to the LPNF. Will add the specific link when I get a moment.
LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST HOME PAGE
Forest Service Releases Cause of Pfeiffer Fire
GOLETA, CA, December 3, 2014….U.S. Forest Service officials today announced the release of the Pfeiffer Fire investigation report which determined the cause of the fire to be a local water company’s electrical control wires creating a competent ignition source.
All other fire causes were investigated and excluded.
The Pfeiffer Fire began just before midnight December 15, 2013, on the Pfeiffer Ridge in Big Sur and eventually burned 917 acres.
The investigation report is accessible to the public on the Los Padres National Forest Internet website.
6:45 pm
Taken today by Brendon Shave
Noon – wind gusts up to 45 mph. Steady, usually above 20.
7:15am – the joyous sound of the filling of our creeks, streams, rivers and waterfall. Up here, I have received .50″ but it is raining at the rate of .74″/hour, just a few minutes ago, currently only .24″ so if this keeps up, that total is going to rapidly climb! The maximum wind gusts were 24 mph at 4 am.
To get an idea of how fast it is coming down, in the 15 mins since I wrote this, and while trying to upload it, it is up to .65″ holy, moley! And a new high rate of 1.84″/hour at 7:30! Yowsa!
The title says it all. Thank you so much, jeff, for being so generous with your art.
So beautiful. What a gift!
7:00 am – What happened to the break in the weather expected for today, before the BIG one rolls in tomorrow? It was raining at the rate of 1/2″ an hour just moments ago. Maybe an isolated shower? Was going to try to slip out … But …
And now. 20 minutes later, I have received .12″
Most years, I have gone to my friend Jo-Anne’s for Thanksgiving. Today is her last, due to new adventures on her horizon. I am honored to share her friendship. This is how she decorates her table.
May your day be filled with love, laughter, friends and family. Mine is. Blessings to one and all.
On the storm front – Watch the weather reports, while timing and amounts change, all reports indicate this could be fun. Enjoy, but be safe!
Looks like it could be a serious. Start preparing now. (I know I said I was taking the rest of the week off … I am, I really am, but thought we should all be aware of this ASAP.)
From my SLO meteorologist:
“A low pressure system will approach the Central Coast on Saturday
with increasing southerly winds and clouds. Periods of rain will
start Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning.
A much stronger storm system will move over San Luis Obispo County
Sunday evening into Monday with moderate gale-force to fresh gale
-force (32- to 46-mph) southerly winds late Sunday into Monday.
Periods of heavy rain is expected to start Sunday evening and
continue through Monday. Rain showers are expected to continue
into Tuesday/Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts could range between
4 and 6 inches in the Santa Lucia mountains above San Simeon,
Cambria and Cayucos. Other San Luis Obispo locations are expected
to range between 1 and 3 inches.”
Here is John’s graphic:
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Here is NOAA Monterey’s current report:
“RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA (Ed. Note – that’s us) COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.
ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT…UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.”
Could be a fun 4-5 days.
