11 am – this is what was left over from last night’s storm, still around at 11, but only on the north side.

9:15 am – part of the forecast discussion:

SPOTTER REPORTS...CHP...AS WELL AS THE BODEGA BAY AND
 PT SUR PROFILERS ARE INDC A LOWERING SNOW LEVEL...DOWN TO 
2000 FEET. BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO 
AND MONTEREY BAY AREA MOUNTAINS. THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 
10 PM THIS EVENING.

9 am – a total of 2.0 inches of rain received yesterday and last night, bring the seasonal total to 6 inches. Check out the Big Sur River discharge rates. Quite a surge yesterday!

5 am – no snow. I checked. Lots of rain and around 3 am significant hail. Scared the dogs!

      Morning Moonset, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

Sunday, 12/14 – NOTE: as per my usual, the most recent entries are here at the top, morning entries start at the bottom, if interested.

11 pm – Total rain today thus far, is 1 and 1/2 inches, bringing the season total to 5.5 inches. No snow, but steady heavy rain all night. I’ll check in in the morning.

7:30 pm. Dave Allen from Carmel is reporting that all hell is breaking loose. Rain, hail, thunder, lightning. I’m often up to an hour behind town reports, but I’ll let you know if “hell” comes to my mountain side! I just went out and checked my gauge, and I have received another 1/2 inch since it got dark. That brings the year’s total to 4.75 inches.

Dark, thirty. By dark, I received 1/4 inch of precipitation for the day, which was snowing, on and off. dark, it turned to rain and slush, which seems to have continued for the last hour. I will report again as necessary.

WOW!! 9:35 am BIG snowflakes!! WOW BIG snowflakes!! It rarely sticks during the day up here, unless there is a “base” from the night before, but we’ll see. 

The precipitation forecast map predicts we will get 3/4 of an inch in the next 24 hours. Temps at 9:30 am are: Chew’s Ridge, 29; Highland’s Peak, 38; Nepenthe, 46. Nepenthe is clearly the place to be this morning! And here is a portion of today’s  (12/14) forecast discussion:

INDICATIONS ARE
 THAT THE INCOMING MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE STEERED MAINLY 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOWER 
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOST 
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. PRIMARY 
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SNOW LEVELS AND QPF. 
MODEL FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE SNOW LEVELS OF BETWEEN 
2500 AND 3500 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THAT 
HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE TWO FACTORS THAT COULD RESULT
IN SNOW LEVELS BEING MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED...PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET TODAY IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO 
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY BELOW 2000 FEET. IF SO...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WOULD BE NEEDED. CURRENT 
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR 
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WOULD IMPACT HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS 
IN THE SF BAY AREA...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. 
LATEST GFS...AND ESPECIALLY NAM...DIRECT MOST MOISTURE 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY
(Ed. note: That's us, boys and girls!)

I will be adding and updating this post throughout the day as I track the weather and gather my notes from the car below in two separate sections.

8 pm – nothing here but severe cold. If you go to the Chew’s Ridge weather station, at 5K ft. you will see that it is 25 degrees right now!! Brrr. bundle up, everyone! The weather station at Highland Peak (Big Creek), at 1900 ft., I believe, is showing 34 degrees and Nepenthe is recording 44 degrees.

4 pm – No snow or precipitation here, but I have a complete calm, falling temperatures, and increasing clouds with the approaching darkness. Here’s part of the latest forecast discussion. Scroll down for the earlier discussion from this morning. (I admit I had to look graupel up. From wikpedia: Graupel (also called snow pellets) refers to precipitation that forms when supercooled droplets of water condense on a snowflake, forming a 2–5 mm ball of rime; the snowflake acts as a nucleus of condensation in this process.  Graupel does not include other frozen precipitation such as snow, hail, ice pellets or diamond dust. See what an educational site this is? LOL

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
 COLD AIR CUMULUS FILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO MOVE
 ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED ACTIVITY OF THESE
 CELLS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE SPOTTERS REPORTED GRAUPEL IN
 CORTE MADERA ASSOCIATED WITH A ISOLATED CELL THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
 EASTERN PORTION OF MARIN COUNTY. A SHORT TIME LATER LIGHT SNOW WAS
 REPORTED OVER MOUNT HAMILTON. SINCE THEN A FEW CALLS HAVE COME IN
 WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 3000 FEET. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
 THROUGH TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP.

BSMAAC Notes:

Yesterday’s meeting was interesting because much of the discussed information came up during the “non-agenda” portion of the meeting. For example, the new Monterey County Building Code Enforcement Ordinance will be coming up for a vote either Tuesday or next month. I have gone through a draft of that ordinance, and it has some serious legal flaws, which I have pointed out to a few parties to the drafting process. Second, Sam Farr is pushing for the “mapping” of all properties on the coast from just south of the Carmel Highlands to the SLO/MoCo line. The purpose of this is for firefighting protection. I expressed concern over proposed “mapping” and the code enforcement ramifications, although Kathleen Lee assured me that that was not the intent of the mapping. Intent or not, it could be an unintended consequence. I suggested “use immunity” but I’m relatively certain no one understood my point.

There will be some reports on Cal-Trans projects that I will post to that page as an update, particularly those that affect the South Coast.

WEATHER:

I have added a new link in the 2008-2008 Weather Conditions websites. Nepenthe now has an automated weather station installed as of yesterday. With the one at Chew’s Ridge and at Big Creek, both also linked to the right, we have most of the coast covered, now.

NOAA is predicting 50% rain possibilities for today and tomorrow, and rain likely for Monday and Tuesday. I will post when rains and/or snows start up here. Here is part of this morning’s forecast from 9:53 AM:

MODELS FORECAST COLD AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PARKS 
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST CUTTING OFF AND DROPPING SOUTH 
INTO OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING 
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 1500 
FT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A HALF OF INCH OR LESS WITH THE HILLS 
BEING THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE HIGHER ACCUMULATION DUE TO OROGRAPHICS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTH AND
THEN ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DRAMATICALLY AS THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO 522 
DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -6 DEGREES C. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER 
ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 1500-2000 FT. LOWER SNOW LEVEL ARE 
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE COLD POOL MOVES INTO OUR 
AREA. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS 
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY PICKING UP WHERE THE OTHER ONE LEFT 
OFF AND MAINTAINING SHOWERY AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE END 
OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED 
THEY MAINTAIN A WET FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Our own local USFS fire captain, Michael Boone is retiring at the end of the year!! Wow. He’s been here forever, supporting locals and our values, and providing insight and cooperation between the USFS and local inholders. Michael you have been invaluable, and will be sorely missed. Please stop by the PV Station and wish Michael well as he leaves us. Goodbye Michael. I wish you the best in your retirement!!

I’v e only missed a handful of BSMAAC meetings in the 23 years I’ve lived here, but today’s meeting was truly fascinating! It was not very well attended. I will report the “facts” tomorrow. So … until tomorrow, bigsurkate, taking the night off.

Oh, and keep an eye on weather reports. At the moment, 1/2 inch expected on Sunday.

 

Sunset Pine, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

Tonight’s sunset.

For this afternoon’s forecast discussion, see prior post. This COULD get very interesting this weekend and early next week.

BTW, tomorrow I have the BSMAAC meeting to attend, AND it is our annual ladies holiday luncheon at the Post Ranch Inn. So, guess who will not be watching the weather until evening?

Okay, here is this afternoon’s forecast discussion:

THE UPSHOT IS THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 
TIMEHEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDC THAT THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...
SO HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FCST. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO AS LOW
AS 1000 FEET AT TIMES SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE CONVECTION. 
TEMPS WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE DISTRICT 
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL VARY ANYWHERE 
FROM 1500 TO 2500 FEET...AND DOWN TO 1000 FEET AT TIMES. WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND 
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SNOW ON THE BAY AREA HILLS...
POSSIBLY AFFECTING ROADS IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND THE 
NORTH BAY HILLS. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES THE DETAILS SHOULD 
BECOME CLEARER CONCERNING SNOW LEVELS AND HOW MUCH SNOW IN THE 
HILLS.

I am waiting for the afternoon models to be analyzed, but until then, this was posted for the 9 am discussion:

"TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DRY AND WARM DAY FOR QUITE A WHILE."
So, whatever you do, ENJOY!

And here’s the most recent discussion (3 am) from NWS:

LATEST MODELS BRING THE FIRST CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES 
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES 
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD JUST SKIRTING THE WEST COAST. THE ENTIRE 
DISTRICT WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON 
SATURDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
THE NORTH. THE COOL AND SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED 
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS 700 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER 
TO MINUS 16 DEGREES AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP 
AS LOW AS 526 MB...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
 2000-3000 FEET OR LOWER BY TUESDAY.

 COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST BEYOND MIDWEEK AS THE
 DISTRICT REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

Well, snow probable for this weekend down to 2000 ft. with a mixture of snow and rain expected at even lower elevations. Possibility of thundershowers. Rain showers in the forecast from Saturday through Wednesday of next week. Here are parts of the report from NWS:

AS OF 3:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MAJOR CHANGE IN THE
 WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 2000
 FEET WITH MIXING POSSIBLE AT EVEN LOWER LEVELS.
ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS AGREE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
 WILL MAKE ITS WAY HERE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ON
 FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH
 AND BY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY THE CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD
 CHANCE OF PICKING UP SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE MODELS
 CURRENTLY SHOWING BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED
 IN URBAN LOCATIONS AND UP TO HALF AN INCH OVER FAVORED TERRAIN. THE
 STORMY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
 HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
 DROP DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED AT EVEN
 LOWER LEVELS. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 700 MB TEMPERATURES
 DOWN TO MINUS 16 THAT WOULD BRING A DEFINITE MIX TO AS LOW AS 1000
 FEET IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. WHO KNOWS...MAYBE THE TWIN PEAKS WILL
 EVEN SEE A BRIEF MIX. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS LIFTED VALUES NEAR ZERO SO
 WE MAY EVEN GET A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER OUT OF THIS. INTERESTINGLY...
 LOOKING FURTHER OUT SHOWS A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH THE
 ECMWF/GDAPS/CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
 THE GFS KEEPS US DRY. INCLINATION IS TO FAVOR THE WETTER MODELS AS
 CPC SHOWS US WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6 THROUGH 14
 WITH A GOOD CONFIDENCE LEVEL. WINTER IS FINALLY ARRIVING.
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Looks like this weekend will bring snow to the Santa Lucia Mountains. Predictions are to as low as 2000 feet. Since I am at 3272 ft., chances are looking pretty good that I will wake up to snow one day this weekend. I always love that first snow, as long as I do not have to drive in it!

Anyone remember (last year?) the snow along Highway One near Deetjen’s? I think it was last year, but maybe the year before. Not long ago, in any event! Or the time, many years ago when it snowed on Carmel Beach? I’ll be sure and post a photograph or two!!

Keep an eye out for rainfall predictions, too!

From the NWS:

...MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER
WEATHER STARTING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SHOWERS...

AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA...SEVERAL WARMER DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THESE MILDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
VERY STRONG SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FIRST SHOT OF COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE AT LEAST TWO ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
DROP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
OUR ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST
HOW COLD AND SHOWERY IT WILL GET...AT THIS TIME IT DOES LOOK LIKELY
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2000 FEET
AND PROVIDE PRECIPITATION TO OUR ENTIRE AREA.

Only 3 things on Friday’s agenda:

V.            OLD BUSINESS                                                         

1.  Update on Monterey County Ambulance RFP                        Tom Lynch, County EMS

VI.            NEW BUSINESS

1.  Review of Highway Closure Communication Protocol            Caltrans staff

2.  Update on post fire water quality monitoring program            National Marine Sanctuary

Also a reminder from a BSVFB member (see comment on Weather Watch post for full information): In case of an emergency, call 911, not your neighbor fire brigade member, or EMT, or CHP. Calling 911 directly, speeds response time, considerably, as the neighbor YOU call, still has to call it in to 911.