Added a new link to the blogroll — the BSVFB. This is a place to make donations and buy things which will support our local fire brigade! I know that economic times are difficult right now, but if everyone of my blog readers donates only $5 or $10, it will make a HUGE difference for the next fire season. And for those of us who have benefited from their services, here is an easy way to donate and/or support their efforts!

Speaking of the Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade, did you know about the fire on Saturday that they responded to? Nor did I until Firefox informed me. When I wrote about it, I was contacted with these photos.

Daniel Danbom sent me these photographs of the fire at the Little Sur on Saturday that he thought my readers might enjoy. Thanks so much Daniel. If you want to see more of his photographs, check out his website: www.quicksilverfastphoto.com

Clear weather predicted for tomorrow, Tuesday, 12/23, so unless someone sends me something, I doubt I will be posting — UNLESS I finally get around to posting the BSMAAC meeting notes, and Cal-Trans projects. No promises, I finally don’t have an emergency with my work!

10:00 am update – quite chilly, but there is sun. Cal-Trans still reporting no problems, and CHP still reporting a lane closure at MM 50. I don’t know what to tell you.

8:00 am update  – 2.25 inches last night, bringing the season total to 8.75 inches. WOW! That was some rainfall. And this storm was the light one? Big Sur River flow peaked at 85 cubic feet per second. Quite a spike from the 15 cubic feet per second which is the usual.

Per the CHP website, there is a slide (it doesn’t actually SAY slide, but what else could it be?) at MM 50, blocking one lane, just reported at 8 am. It is not on the Cal-Trans website, yet. MM 50 is between River Inn and Andrew Molera SP. And remember, my friends, the slides do not stop just because the rain has!

BTW, while showers have not been taken out of the forecast for Christmas Day, snow has. Rather have snow than rain. Oh, well.

Happy Holidays to all. May they treat Big Sur gently!

11:15 pm update – continuous rain, increase in amount. Nepenthe is reporting 1.03 inches thus far. The Big Sur River water flow is steadily increasing. Check the chart. It is closely approaching the “pay attention” stage, particularly for the Grange and Debbie. Neither the CHP nor Cal-Trans are reporting any road problems at this hour, but frankly, I’d be surprised if there weren’t any rocks in the road, and if a slide doesn’t occur sometime before morning, based on the level of rain I can currently hear outside. Remember, what I get up here, eventually makes its way downhill!

BE SAFE!!

9:15 pm update – Nice, gentle rain. No big storm, no downpours, no lightning, hail or other phenomena, just a steady, gentle rain. Let you know the rain total in the am. Wow, Nepenthe automatic weather station is already reporting .67? Amazing. 

3:50 pm update – Boy, did I call that one. It is now raining.

3:30 pm update – The wind picked up a bit about half an hour ago, but has died back down. Temps have dropped slightly. It is currently 46.6. No rain, but it “feels” imminent.

Rain expected today and tomorrow. Half an inch expected in Big Sur today and tonight, and then just a smidgeon tomorrow. (Like that technical term?) Will update as the rain hits the Top ‘o the World.

Also, there may be a white Christmas above 3500 ft., maybe down as low as 2500. The models seem to be uncertain about whether this storm coming in on Christmas from Alaska will be out to sea or on the coast.

I’ve been asleep at the computer, I guess, because I totally missed this one this afternoon, until firefox brought it to my attention. Power outage due to fire caused by down lines. Power outage to continue to sometime tomorrow, at the earliest, maybe longer.

I am so over fires and fire seasons, this one snuck up on me. Here is what firefox reported:

“Kate,

Here is some info about the Little Sur Fire today, 12/20/08 and the resulting power outage.
The fire at Little Sur was caused by downed powerline in brush on the south slope of Serra Hill. The fire burned about 8-10 acres and was under control from a combined effort of Big Sur Volunteer Fire and CalFire engines from Cypress and Carmel Highlands stations. One CalFire helicopter made water drops to prevent further spread on the very steep slope. CDF Gabillan Crews did mop up. Big Sur Vol. Fire responded with one engine, one patrol, and one water tender. Two firefighters cut line to gain access through thick riparian brush and prevent spread on the east flank.
PG and E workers relayed to El Sur Ranch that the outage resulting from the fire would last AT LEAST until 2pm Sunday if not further.
The damage to the line running down hill is extensive.”

firefox

James Taylor: “I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain …”

Thanks, firefox for keeping me on my toes, again!

 

(Salmon Creek on Monday)

Sorry I haven’t gotten around to posting the notes from the BSMAAC meeting nor updated the Cal-Trans project. I’m a busy lady. Will try to get to that tomorrow.

Two storms headed our way. The first, Sunday afternoon through Monday is not expected to bring as much rain as the Tuesday through Wednesday system.

The predictions for the Tuesday through Friday system coming through have changed, somewhat, and the Tuesday system is expected to come through relatively fast. It is still possible that it will cause some locally heavy rain, but not for the extended period previously predicted. Caution is still advised for those near the burn areas, and it is advisable to keep an eye on the forecasts, as the system gets closer, and predictions.

 

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS 
ARE IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 
20S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATL IMAGERY INDC THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A 
GREAT DEAL OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN. THE 06Z GFS 
IS NOW MUCH DRIER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE SHORTWAVES 
MORE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER WITH THE 
SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINING OFF THE COAST...
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OCEAN. WITH SUCH A LARGE 
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AS WELL AS LITTLE RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
 FORECAST. PER THE HPC DISCUSSION HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF.

Sometimes, I feel like the NWS — only with photos!

Today, Friday, 12/19/08: A Hazardous Weather statement has been issued for next week. It reads pretty much the same as yesterday’s statement, which is reproduced below. 

Thursday, 12/18/08 – This out this afternoon about a system shaping up for next week. Pay close attention. Floods, mud, and debris flow could be in the making.

AND BIG SUR COAST-
 123 PM PST THU DEC 18 2008

 ...STORMY WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE 
FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN 
APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 
THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH...TAPPING 
INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO OVER 
6000 FEET AS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SLAMS 
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY CONTINUE AT 
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.

AS THE START OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY
...THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH 
AND TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS INCREASING 
CONFIDENCE THAT A PERIOD OF WARMER...VERY WET AND WINDY 
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS THERE WOULD BE A 
THREAT OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AS WELL AS 
MUD SLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS OVER BURN SCARRED AREAS FROM 
THIS PAST SUMMER`S FIRES. PERSONS IN MONTEREY AND SANTA 
CRUZ COUNTIES WHO ARE NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD PAY VERY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SINCE IT 
APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS. 
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...VERY WINDY 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY 
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONLOCATIONS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...STATEMENTS AND 
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WE APPROACH 
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.

As promised, here is today’s view. A white Christmas all over California. You realize that the only way to get to SoCal is the 101, right? Everything is snowed in and freezing temperatures are expected in much of California. Naturally, the 101 freeway is packed!

Only two months ago, I was photographing fire on this mountain. Thus, the title of this post – Fire and Ice.

Hey, did anyone notice the Big Sur River webcam is offline due to a power outage? Is this the same outage that started yesterday afternoon around 1? Or is this a new one? Nepenthe’s webcam seems to be working. Hmmm…too late (11:30 pm) to get any additional. Hopefully, everything will be up by morning.

Remember, be safe, extremely cold temperatures are expected tonight and it is only 24 degrees on Chew’s Ridge, right now.

3:00 pm – Revision. I do have a good shot of the snow-covered slopes of Cone Peak taken today that I will upload sometime this afternoon or evening.

NOON – Crisp, clear, and clean describes this morning. Even though the sun is out, the snow is slow to melt in some areas. My dog ate the internal antenna for my cellular booster, making internet very slow. A replacement should be here tomorrow or Friday. In the meantime, I am a little behind on work. Enjoy the beautiful (but short-term) sun, with the snow on the mtns. and I will be back tomorrow.

6 am – Cold, it is really cold this morning. Quick report before I snuggle back under the down comforter. I still have considerable snow on the ground. Chew’s Ridge is reporting 24 degrees while Nepenthe is 44. What a difference altitude makes, huh? No more snow expected today, per forecast discussion. Have a great day, everyone.

4:30 pm – the sun came out around 3 pm, and has been busy turning everything to mud and slush. Still quite a bit of snow in the shadier portions of the property, and amazingly, the garden is still covered, but the road is completely devoid of snow, and very muddy. Before I sign off for the evening, just to remind people, it is expected to be EXTREMELY cold tonight, and there could be black ice on the roads. All forecasts models are consistent on that. What is not consistent is the amount of moisture, or exactly how low the snow levels were go. So be careful tonight, and tomorrow morning.

1:30 pm – Snowed for 45 minutes, but now the sun is trying to come out. Power out in entire “town” of Big Sur as of 15 minutes ago. PG&E has been notified.

12:30 – OMG the snow is REALLY coming down, again! NWS, I guess you were right to want to check this every 1/2 hour. Busy day up here, but not 1/2 as busy as you guys are! Last time it snowed like this, I got about an inch in less than an hour! What a winter sleigh ride!! Big flakes. BIG flakes!!

Noon – here is a shot of Cal-Trans plowing the hail in Big Sur taken around 11 am. WOOHOO!! Is this fun, or what?

And here is one of Mt. Manuel (I think – let me know if I am wrong, Debbie). Both these pic were taken by Debbie Reed of Blaze Engineering. Ain’t technology grand?

BTW, Debbie, this is an absolutely GORGEOUS shot!! You are giving some some serious competition here, girlfriend!

11 am – Cal-Trans reportedly plowing hail in Big Sur proper, per Blaze Engineering.

As of 9:30 am, the NWS extended the winter weather warning throug this afternoon. From the NWS forecast discussion:

“HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH

 THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO."

As promised, here is Cone Peak. If I get a better opportunity later, I will replace this, as you can see the clouds are settling down on top of it.

9:00 am and here is a photo of my road and the back of my Jeep. You see it?? Huh, huh? Trust me, it is there. I just called the Court of Appeal and let them know I was snowed in!

8:00 am – thunder, lightning, hail, and snow! What an exciting morning it is! Bear-dog has to bark at the thunder to let it know who is on guard duty. He’s going to be very busy today!

7:45 am – nice snow flurries comin’ down! I mean considerable snow. Will really add to that which is already on the ground! WOW! It is really coming down!

2-3 inches of snow being reported by CHP in the Santa Cruz Mtns. – specifically Highway 17 at county line, and Highway 35 at Bear Creek. CT plowing snow!

More snow expected tonight. White Christmas this year!

These shots were taken at 7 pm last night, while the snow was 
falling. I got additional snow during the night, but at least 
the road appears clear. If I can get a good shot of Cone Peak, 
I will post that later.
And now, this is a part of what was posted on the NWS forecast
discussion. Snow levels reported down to 1600 ft. in some areas.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:50 AM PST TUESDAY...VERY BUSY...SORRY TO
BE RUNNING LATE. SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL THE 
ZONES ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION. (Ed note: this was added
for the morning commute, as snow reported at 1600 ft on Highway
17, and icy on San Rafael bridge in Sonoma)

OMG, it is HEAVILY snowing!! My deck is already covered with 1/2 an inch or more!! Photos by morning!! 

The snow is still on the ground, but the snow did not continue, and  my footprints still show. Tonight, KCOY out of Santa Maria is reporting snow levels down to 3K ft. tonight. (Duh) but down to 1K feet tomorrow night. I did check our local forecast discussion, and they have not changed earlier reports by much.

So, it is definitely an interesting storm. Keep it in perspective, though. When I think I am cold, I hear reports of minus 27 on the East Coast. THAT is cold!!