Mike Gilson graciously provided me this photo of his truck, after the storm. Thank goodness no one was hurt, and even the truck sur-vived, although he does mention that it needs a new lumber rack! Oh, my, what a sight!
Now, I have a question, Mike. How in the heck did you get that puppy off? And who did the chainsaw work??
There were so many great cars in Cambria. Thank goodness I have learned never to leave home without my camera — forget American Express (although I didn’t)
What is this car?
The full view.
And then, the joy of getting home …
Mostly, town runs are necessary. They can be drudgery. They can go smoothly. They are rarely “fun” when done alone. Today’s was fun. In every sense.
Yesterday, all day, my one and only neighbor went out to clear Plaskett Ridge Rd. This guy is an master with a chainsaw. I cannot and will not operator one. I am totally at his mercy. If he doesn’t clear it, I don’t go out. He has to work at Lucia tomorrow, so … he went out. What a guy.
This was the big stuff he cleared. There was a bunch of little stuff, too.
Then, when I am almost down to the coast, I see this.
Does it get any better than this? Well, actually, it does.
Do I live in a beautiful place, or what?
I continue my way down the coast, and stop at a beach I like. Two great photo ops present themselves…one human, and one not.
Critters of all sorts come out to play on a beautiful fall day, after the storm no one will forget.
I make my way to Cambria, for lunch at the most wonderful restaurant – Robin’s. It is like our Big Sur Bakery, in that it is full of fresh, organic, locally grown food, but it has an international flair. And what is happening there? A classic car club has shown up for lunch.
That’s the grille close-up. Here’s the car:
Here is another:
And the longer view:
To Be Continued …
A beautiful day to be out and about. My neighbor cleared the road yesterday, but says we have about 5-6 trees ready to come down, so to be careful if windy. Completely calm and beautiful, so I guess it is okay. I think it is a photo op day!
During the lulls between the storms, I will be posting even more photographs from the Jade Festival!
5:30 pm – Power is back on in Big Sur Valley. YAY!
1:00 pm – here are some storm damage shots.
“After the Storm” by Debbie Reed. Thank you, kind lady.
Big Sur River. A private bridge just down stream from the Grange.
Look closely. That’s a tree that was toppled on top of that house, just up the road from Glen Oaks! Took me a while to realize what I was seeing.
Tangled web of fallen trees. Look closely all the way on the left, toward the middle. A roof line. One crazy storm, huh?
9:30 am – from the Soggy South Coast, this beautiful sight:
7:30 am – I got another 3.5 inches, bringing the total for the storm here on my perch at 3272′ to 15.5. It is peaceful and quiet — very quiet — at the moment. No wind, no rain. Blessed be.
Power outages reported in Pebble Beach this morning, and PG&E estimating 4 pm to get it back up. Power is still out in Big Sur Valley, and estimates are that it may not be restored until tomorrow. I read that they lost a big tower at Moss Landing, which brings power from SoCal to NorCal, and that it reduced the flow by 1/3. Whether that incident is affecting our local outages or not, I do not know.
CHP reporting only one problem, a limb down blocking lanes at Highway 1 and 68. Amazingly, we all survived the storm of the century in pretty good shape.
4 am – it was still raining at 11 pm when I went to bed, and was raining when I woke up just now. I will check the rain gauge at first light to see how much was added to the 12 inches I had by 7:30 pm last night. This from NOAA discussion:
AS OF 3:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY…OCT 13TH WILL GO DOWN AS
A HISTORIC STORM. THERE WERE INCREDIBLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
DISTRICT…WITH MINING RIDGE IN MONTEREY COUNTY THE RAINFALL WINNER
WITH 21.34 INCHES! THERE WERE SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES THAT EXCEEDED 10 INCHES OF RAIN.
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO RECORDED 2.49 INCHES OF RAIN…WHICH IS THE
GREATEST 24 HR RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER (RECORDS HAVE BEEN
KEPT SINCE 1849). MONTEREY CLIMATE STATION REPORTED 2.66 INCHES OF
RAIN…WHICH WAS NOT ONLY A RECORD FOR THE DATE BUT IT IS ALSO THE
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WINDS WERE VERY STRONG AS WELL…
WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR MORE. LOS GATOS RAWS
IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS REPORTED A GUST TO 87 MPH.
Reports are for continued rain through today, tapering off by this evening.
10:00 pm – last update for the evening. The storm is pretty much over, but we can still expect up to another inch of rain. I will update my rain totals in the morning. This was posted to NOAA discussion:
AS OF 9:20 PM PDT TUESDAY…RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE RAIN GOING FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH. THESE RAINS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE JET MAX MOVES INLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MANY PLACES EXCEEDED THE ONE-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SET BY THE COLUMBUS
DAY STORM OF 1962. THE RAINFALL TODAY IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO…
2.49 INCHES…BEAT THE PREVIOUS RECORD HELD BY THE STORM IN 1962
WHICH WAS 1.80 INCHES. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN VERY
IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS AND 6-10 INCHES IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE GREATEST
RAIN AMOUNTS WERE IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS WITH MINING RIDGE
RECEIVING 18.74 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RAIN CAUSED SOME
SMALL RIVERS IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS TO
BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD STAGE CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AND SLIDES.
A WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN MORGAN HILL.
RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE DISTRICT AND THE THREAT OF
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE OVER. HOWEVER WE CAN STILL EXPECT UP TO
ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS WITH UP
TO ONE-QUARTER INCH ELSEWHERE.
9:00 pm update – I am one, but I am only one. The news, blogs, and emails have turned me into a whirling dervish today, but you can still get updates and help each other out by checking the comment section to this post. Firefox just posted a recon and warning for example. If you’ve never posted before, it has to go through moderation, first, but anyone who has posted, and has not changed their email, can post directly. Let’s use this community bulletin board to keep each other informed and safe. And with that, I bid my beloved Coast good night. Warm and Dry Hugs to all.
8:30 pm – PG & E is informing the SP that power MAY not be restored until 9 pm tomorrow night in the Big Sur Valley.
7:30 pm – I went out one last time to dump the rain gauge (which was at 3 inches since the last dump) to find another inch in an hour, for a total of 12 inches. Mark Readdie of Big Creek sent me the link for the Big Sur River real-time levels, which I added to the El Niño links, and he also send me this message re: Big Creek: “Yes, it’s at half of it’s maximum height since 1951.
A good historical data set is here for the Big Sur River: historical data
You can see the big floods in 1975, 95 and 98. We’re getting up there!”
From Rain at the SP: “The Big Sur has reached flood stage. 10.6 ft and counting as of 7:30. It is over the banks at Andrew Molera and into the picnic area and parking lot. . At Pfeiffer it is flowing okay now. Most of our problems there are as a result of the Redwood Creek not holding all the water and mud. We have been moving dump trucks full out of the culvert all day with Cal Trans. I’ll have a better idea of where we are in the morning when we have more light. We have had rocks coming down on the day use road most of the day.”
Another reliable source has the Big Sur River level at 11.5. Regardless, it is at flood level.
6:30 pm – another 1/2 inch. Total, 11 inches.
6:00 pm. I have recorded ANOTHER 1 and 1/2 inches since I dumped the gauge at 4:30, taking me up to 10.5 for the storm. That means we are continuing at the 1/2 inch per 1/2 hour rate we have been at since 1:30 this afternoon. Oh, my! Mining Ridge got almost 13 inches by 5 pm. Still blowing and still raining HARD!
Okay, it is official. Road closed, at least temporarily. CHP is indicating, not “closed” just subject to long delays. The Chamber of Commerce describes these incidents as “road hazards.” Political speak, both lanes are blocked, but the road is not “closed?” Give me a break. I understand the businesses not wanting it stated that the road is closed, but a friend who works in the tourist industry wrote me about the tourists cars that have had flats or have been totaled by boulders. People from out of the area don’t have a clue as to what is going on, and I think it is irresponsible of us to try to bring tourists here when it is so damn dangerous right now.
MM 37 is Tin House Rd. or about a mile south of Partington Cove.
Incident: 0937 Type: Mud, Dirt or Rock Slide Location: SR1 MM 37 ThomasBrothers: 1303 5J info as of: 10/13/2009 5:04:09 PM
ADDITIONAL DETAILS
4:15PM 1039 CAL TRANS
4:14PM BOTH LANES BLKD
RESPONDING OFFICERS STATUS
4:15PM CHP Unit On Scene
4:30 pm – a little less than 1/2 inch the past 1/2 hour, bringing the total for the storm up to 9 inches, up here on Top o’ the World. I need to empty the rain gauge for the evening, and then start over, again.
From one of my trusted sources: “This is a mad crazy storm… all of downtown Monterey is out of power and the manhole covers have become water fountains!” Gotta laugh at that image, huh?
4:00 pm – a little over 1/2 inch the past 1/2 hour. Now at 8.6 inches for the storm. While there are reports the road is a mess, all undoubtedly true, and that the rockfall drapery is not holding in places (unconfirmed, but a reliable source), there has been no “official” word of a closure, as of yet. However, those of you familiar with this road know that Cal-Trans stops working at dark, and that any travel after dark is extremely dangerous. That is even more so tonight than during most storms, due to the intensity of this one. Remember, that 10.2 inches on Mining Ridge will be flowing down hill, and with little vegetation, it could take down the hillside, covering the road and any traveling vehicles.
3:30 pm – another 1/2 inch in a 1/2 hour, bringing the total up to 8 inches. Big Creek reports 10.2 on Mining Ridge. Extreme differences depending on one’s position relative to the storm. I have heard of as little as 1/2 inch in one location.
3:00 pm – if you are following my blog at all today, you know my rain started increasing from 1/2 inch an hour to an inch every hour. That started between 1:30 and 2:00 pm, and has continued ever since. I got an inch this past hour, bringing my storm total up to 7 and 1/2 inches. NOAA just reissued the FLASH FLOOD WARNING ALERT!!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS FOR… MONTEREY COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA… THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…TASSAJARA HOT SPRINGS…LUCIA… JAMESBURG…GORDA…BIG SUR VILLAGE…ARROYO SECO… * UNTIL 645 PM PDT * AT 239 PM PDT… NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL ECHOES OVER THE PACIFIC APPROACHING THE AREA. AUTOMATED GAUGES HAVE ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… MUD SLIDES AND ROCK SLIDES CAN POTENTIALLY TRAP AND KILL PEOPLE CAUGHT IN THEIR PATH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.
2:19 pm – This just in from the Monterey Office of Emergency Services:
“The County is reacting well to the current storm. We are not currently working any major events, have experienced only one closed road (now reopened), and sporadic, limited power outages affecting around 5000 residents. We just passed through a period of less rainfall in the early afternoon but will see increasingly heavy rain peaking around 5pm.”
And this from NOAA:
AS OF 2:10 PM PDT TUESDAY…LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE HEAVY RAINS HAD DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVERALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON…HOWEVER LATEST SCANS NOW SHOW RENEWED ACTIVITY OCCURRING AND SETTING OFF OFFSHORE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA IS SET FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING NOW AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE DISTRICT. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAIN RANGE. RAINFALL TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL IN THE COASTAL RANGES WITH 5-6 INCHES STORM TOTAL…WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNT MINING RIDGE IN MONTEREY COUNTY MEASURING OVER 9
INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE LATEST QPF FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER GIVES AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO 4 INCHES TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR WITHIN AND
DOWN STREAM OF FIRE SCARED AREAS IN MONTEREY…SANTA CRUZ AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.
2:00 pm – 6 and 1/2 inches for the storm. I see I am now getting 1/2 inch in 1/2 hour, as opposed to 1/2 inch an hour. That’s not good.
1:30 pm – I am up to 6 inches for the storm. Winds still quite active. Incident JSO Big Sur was a van full of people that was getting hit by falling rocks. Tourons without a clue, is my guess.
1:00 pm – Friend in town reports Highway 68 is closed. Unknown where. Trees down everywhere in town. She was supposed to travel between Salinas and Pacific Grove. Unknown if she got stuck as she sent me the email via a friend in France. Ain’t technology great?
12:30 pm – Rain Greenleaf writes: “I am tracking the rain gauge at Andrew Molera and I am up to 3.46. It is coming down pretty steady….The flood management team with OES sent down over 5K sand bags to me yesterday to assist and I want to try and get them out to the local community. If any one is in need I have them at the Pfeiffer shop right now but I would like to get some staged between possible isolation zones.”
I am suggesting to Rain Coast Gallery/Deetjen’s and/or Henry Miller for a south location. Stan Russell is trying to keep up with the sand bag issue, so see his blog to the right under blogroll.
Also: “Representatives from the Flood operation Center will be in Big Sur to offer assistance to any one who needs it. You can contact them at 1-800-952-5530 or 1-916-574-2619.”
Noon update: Another 1/2 inch this past hour, for a total of 5 inches. There have been a few short lulls in the wind, but they are short lived. Reported from the Valley: “Juan Higuera is running. Black and high but still in it’s banks. State Parks have kicked all the campers out of Molera and Pfeiffer….UPS driver says Highlands is a mess.”
11:00 am my rain gauge blew over at approximately 4 and 1/2 inches, dumping itself. I have resecured it, I hope. Winds up here are gusting to right around 100 mph. Pfeiffer Ridge (Anne Ashley) is reporting 1/2 inch an hour since 4 am and gusts of 60 mph.
Nexrad SFO radar link
Here’s a quick capture from the above link:
10:00 am – rain gauge righted and secured, shows 3 and 1/2 inches from storm. And, from the most recent NOAA discussion:
AS OF 9:20 AM PDT TUESDAY…RAIN AND WIND ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM BEARS DOWN ON THE COAST. RAINFALL RATES HAVE INCREASED WITH 3-HOURLY RATES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES COMMON OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS…PORTIONS OF MARIN COUNTY AS WELL AS GAUGES IN THE SANTA LUCIAS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE AREA NEAR THE LOCKHEED BURN AREA AND WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON AS RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE TO RISE IN THAT AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE BIG
SUR COAST NEAR THE BURN SCAR AREAS. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 11:45 AM.
9:30 am – I have power and am back up. Flash flood warning up over the airwaves about 9 am, power out in Big Sur Valley, and will go on to check out the rest of the conditions. It is HOWLING here, raining like crazy. Nasty, nasty storm!
CHP is reporting so many problems, I can’t count that high. Santa Cruz, Monterey, everywhere but Big Sur — so far.
8:30 am – I am conserving battery power, so if you have a story to tell, a warning to give, please post it in the comments section below. Send any photos to me directly, and I will post when back online. I will check back in a couple hours or so and at some point, get the power up and running so I can continue updates throughout the day. Oh, and I am up to 2 inches of rain for the storm, so that’s a gain of 1/2 inch the last hour.
8:00 am – I received this message from Dave Allen, a teacher at Pacific Valley School, about his attempted commute from Carmel to the South Coast:
“Kate,
I attempted to drive to school this morning and the conditions are absolutely life-threatening. Even by my standards as a crazy commercial fisherman and 20-year veteran of the 55 mile commutes along the entire Big Sur coast during all those storms, rockslides, boulders and stuff…the conditions today are “over the top”. At Carmel Highlands, there are already large fallen branches blocking sections of the road. I got as far as Garrapata Creek, and the wind hit hurricane strength (no exxageration). My truck very nearly got capsized by the wind force, and I had to do a vary scary u-turn between gusts. Also, my truck’s wheels were hydroplaning even at 30 mph from about 5-6″ of water across the road, being blown to a white froth. This wind froth completely obscured the highway and shoulder, almost like snow. It looked just like hurricane photos. Sorry I could not get photos, because it was still dark, and I am not going back out in such dangerous conditions.
Raeanna closed school fot today, I reached Joyce Duffy, and she said that it is so frightening that she is taking cover in her classroom as large tree branches are falling and debris is blowing across the school grounds with deadly projectile force.
So, I advise to everybody in Big Sur…STAY OFF THE ROAD!”
Sorry these sat pics are so small, but you get the idea we have a monster on our hands:
7:30 am – the winds have blown my rain gauge off-kilter, so difficult to read, but it appears to indicate I’ve received 1.5 inches. I will set all right when I go out to fill and start the gennie, hopefully during a lull … if such a thing ever comes today!!
7:00 am – per CHP website, traffic hazards — trees, wires, electrical, down in many areas, but nothing reported yet for Highway One here in Big Sur. This is only going to get worse throughout the day today, boys and girls, so be safe! Stay in, if you can.
6:30 am – The storm has really picked up in the last hour here, in town, and in Big Sur proper, according to my early morning reporters. NOAA discussion has this to say:
AS OF 3:15 AM PDT TUESDAY…RAIN AND WIND ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM BEARS DOWN
ON THE COAST. SATL IMAGERY IS INDC THAT CLOUD TOPS ARE RAPIDLY
ENHANCING AND COOLING OFF THE CA COAST AS A 150 KT JET STREAK HAS NOW
REACHED 37/130. THIS HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE…WHICH IS THE REASON FOR THE RAPID STRENGTHENING AS SEEN
ON SATL IMAGERY. AMSU IMAGERY IS INDC TPW VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5
INCHES JUST OFF THE COAST…NEAR 34/127. AMSU IMAGERY IS INDC
RAINFALL RATES AS OF 06Z OF 0.3 INCHES/HR NEAR 38/128. SINCE THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING AND ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES HAVE
PROBABLY INCREASED.
RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING…WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HEAVY RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LOCAL DEBRIS
FLOWS FROM THE FIRE SCAR AREAS IN SANTA CRUZ…MONTEREY…AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS (PLEASE SEE SFOFFAMTR OR WGUS66 KMTR FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION). EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS…3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS…AND UP TO 8 INCHES IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAINS IN
SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY…
WHICH COULD PROLONG THE HEAVY RAIN FROM SANTA CRUZ SOUTH.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCATA-SANTA BARBARA IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP TO OVER 20 MB THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH A 55-
65 KT LLJ AT 925 MB WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE DISTRICT.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS/WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL 11 PM TONIGHT
(PLEASE SEE SFONPWMTR OR WWUS76 KMTR FOR DETAILED INFORMATION).
AS OF 9:30
PM PDT MONDAY…STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA AS
FORECAST. KMUX AND MT VACA RADARS CURRENTLY SHOWING INITIAL BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS ABOUT 60 MI OFF THE COAST. EXPECT RAIN TO REACH THE CA
COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS (BY 06-07Z). SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND
00Z OAKLAND SOUNDING VERIFYING THE HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PW AMOUNTS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL
EVIDENT ON LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT AND
WINDS. COASTAL BUOYS HAVE SHOWN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH GUSTS 23 TO 35 MPH.
7:45 pm – while coming in fits and spurts, the rain is definitely here for the evening. Enjoy. And may our thirsty hills absorb all that they are offered!
7:36 pm – a cloud burst. It did not last long, but was significant in its short strength.
Got this from a friend in town this evening: “Kate, you might be relieved to know that Cal Trans is on the way south….as I was coming home this afternoon there were two brand new HUGE trucks equipped with plows in front, each pulling a large bulldozer and they were zooming south on Hwy I…….I guess that is in anticipation of potential mud slides etc on Hwy 1 in your area.”
I am about to take an Advil PM (thanks, Avis) as I overdid the Jade Festival these past few days. If I am lucky, I will sleep through the beginnings of the heavy winds and rain, but that remains to be seen. IF I am lucky, I’ll be blogging again in the morning, if not, then later, as the storm hits.
5:00 pm – Here is the latest rain prediction map from NOAA. You will note the amount of rain expected for tomorrow has gone UP, not down. Also note the grey area on the Big Sur Coast has gotten bigger. This is the area where 6 inches or more is predicted. Compare the two maps, the first one earlier in this post from this morning, and this recent one. Sigh … Stay warm, dry, and above all, SAFE tomorrow everyone!
This will help you understand the rain prediction maps a little better:
AS OF 2:30 PM
PDT MONDAY…THE STORM OFFSHORE IS DEVELOPING AS FORECAST. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER…PW…AMOUNTS AND STRONG WINDS ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST SATELLITE PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES BULLETIN INDICATES A 140+ KNOT JET POINTED AT CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH A LEADING EDGE PW PLUME OF 1.8 INCHES. THE FIRST
WAVE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAY AREAS BETWEEN 5 PM PDT AND 11 PM PDT ACCORDING TO SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION.
2:00 pm – the “drizzle” has continued since noon, now wetting everything. Still not really a “rain” but it is still wet.
1:10 pm – the predicted wind event has begun, but just gustings at this point, and no where near the 70 mph predicted for ridge tops like mine. This is NOAA’s latest:
LATER TONIGHT LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO 70 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREFORE…A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
Noon — slight sprinkles have chased the dogs inside (they don’t like getting wet) where they will probably remain for most of the next few days. Nothing significant, not really rain, yet, just enough to see drops on the deck.
My fire links have disappeared for the winter, and my weather links from last year have magically reappeared.
From the predicted rain map link — click on Day 2 (Tuesday). The predictions are off the charts, which only go up to 6 inches. This first storm of the season is a real doozie. The grey area in the center of Big Sur is 6 inches or over.
Here are 2 radar shots provided to me by Dave Allen. The top one is from yesterday at 1 pm, the bottom one is from this morning at 8:00 am.
In the mean time, here is the early morning weather report for our area:
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN COULD START IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER WIND AND RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO IS INDC
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT…WITH NEARLY 60 KT OF UPGLIDE ALONG THE
295 K SURFACE. TIMEHEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDC THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SATURATED UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE…NEARLY 40K FEET. OMEGA
VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 15 UBAR/SEC TUE AND TUE EVENING. WITH TPW
VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES…OR EVEN HIGHER THERE COULD BE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. WITH THE WINDS RAMPING UP OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A
ROLE…WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
8INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS RAINFALL
WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED…THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
PROBLEMS FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE FIRE SCARS. FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AND BELOW THE FIRE SCARRED AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY.
Now, you understood all that, right? But I’ll bet you “got” the important stuff!
5:00 pm Closing down a wonderful 3 days, awarding our final raffle drawings, while we take apart the booth, put things away, and cleaning up. We could not have done it without all the help of our wonderful, dedicated group of volunteers. Thank you, thank you, thank you ladies, gentlemen, and children of all ages!
Next reports will be storm watch. Good night, everyone!
3:00 pm – The Mighty Croondogs
2:00 pm – Lenny Blue & The Otter Guys:
1:00 pm The Demos:
And the co-founder of the South Coast Land Trust 20 years ago, sponsor of 18 years of Jade Festivals since 1990, here on the South Coast. Mollie Field.
12:00 noon – Snap Jackson & The Knock on Wood Players:
11:00 am – Valerie Johnson & The New Sound Boogie
Valerie Johnson
Gus Thompsson
This year’s incredible sound crew:
And our new Music Direction, Eric, under the direction of our former music director, Syd Carr.
10:00 am – Drumming circle has started.
I interrupt the Jade Festival reporting to bring you a special weather alert for early next week. It came in yesterday afternoon at 4:00 pm, but as most of you know, I’ve been a little busy. Here is the announcement:
The National Weather Service is predicting that extremely high levels of rainfall will occur early next week (see official forecast). This includes high winds and as much as 8-10 inches of rain. If this weather occurs as predicted there is a high probability that flooding, debris flows, and power outages will also occur throughout the county.
Please be alert to National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories. Be prepared to take actions necessary to protect yourself and your property.
This information should be disseminated to all levels of community and response organizations.
I will post more information as it becomes available in this post, but reporting will continue on the Jade Festival below for Day 2 of the Festival.
5:00 pm Zongo All-Stars!! WOOHOO!! Man can these guys play, The whole place is dancing!!
Today, we celebrated the 80th birthday of a special friend of the south coast. Happy Birthday, Barbara! Here’s the special Bunny Cake.
2:30 pm — and the music, dancing and fun continues:
The Band, Rough House
Great band and lead singer, Queen Coronation. I wish I could record them for you!
11:30 am – And next was the yearly belly dancing by Benat Serat
10:00 am — drumming circle will begin in only moments. Posts throughout the day!
Dick Horan leading the circle.
