This is the current (as of 1/15/10 at 10 pm) hazardous outlook concerns regarding hydrology from NOAA:

AS THE FIRST AND WEAKEST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH…ONLY LIGHTER RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WITHRAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY…INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHWARD. BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH 3 INCHES A POSSIBILITY OVER THE COASTAL RANGES. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD THERE ARE NO CRITICAL HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS OTHER THAN NUISANCE AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MANY SMALLER
STREAMS SHOULD START TO SHOW AN AMPLE RESPONSE TO THE RAINS BUT NO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST. OF NOTE BY MONDAY NIGHT…FOR THE MOST PART SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR SATURATION AND ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD RESULT IN RAPID AND SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON
LOCAL STREAMS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY NIGHT THE RAIN PICKS UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING…THIS TIME A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MOST IMPORTANTLY…TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS WHEN HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS BECOME THE MOST SERIOUS AND FLASH FLOODING ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS COULD BECOME A REALITY. BY THIS POINT THOUGH…THE MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD ALL STILL BE WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN PICKS UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL STORM OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNTIL WELL INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING INLAND. THIS COULD MEAN SEVERAL WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THAT TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD EASILY REACH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES. THE WORST OF IT WOULD CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AROUND THE COASTAL RANGES.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO UNDERSCORE A HAZARDOUS FLOOD SCENARIO THAT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHAT LEVEL OF SEVERITY THIS WEEKS EVENTS WILL REACH…AT A MINIMUM CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.

EVERYONE NEEDS TO SERIOUSLY PLAN FOR THEIR WEEK AHEAD. THIS IS THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE WINTER SO FAR AND IF YOU COMBINE THE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS THAT MAY DEVELOP…CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. PEOPLE LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS OR
OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING…PARTICULARLY OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD. REMEMBER…IT TAKES AS LITTLE AS ONLY 1 FOOT OF MOVING WATER TO SWEEP AWAY A VEHICLE.

5:00 pm update. Extra Dog Food? Check. Extra Gas? Check. Extra People Food? Check. Books, movies, work. All hunkered in and ready to ride it out. It is 50 degrees outside, but feels much colder due to the wind chill factor. I have moved my digital thermometer to make it more accessible at night, at least for the coming events. Otherwise, the only real changes to what has already been forecast, is the possibility of a few showers tonight, in some areas. Let me know if you get any. Keep your eye on the sky, NOAA weather alerts, and on the road and streams for possible mudslides. If you haven’t stocked up, anticipated power outages, and stream blockages, please do so tomorrow. And don’t forget your pets!

I am busy preparing for the next series of storms, the first, mild one to hit tomorrow. Here is a IR satellite map of the US.

And here is one of the Pacific:

And this link shows a fascinating animated look at the storms up to 180 hours out: storm surfing

Here is the weather watch from NWS for the Santa Lucia Mountains and the Los Padres National Forest:

THE FIRST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA STARTING LATE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE SERIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD MORE RAIN INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.

A SECOND BREAK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT AND MOST POWERFUL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK APPROACHES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER WEILL INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 3-5 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 FOR THE VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHOWERS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE.. A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD…TOTAL RAINFALL COULD REACH 10-15 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE WETTEST LOCATIONS. IN THE VALLEYS…4-8 INCHES.