The Smell of Smoke

2:30 am – I finally got my answer from a SLO county FF: “Started approx 1600 and was contained at about 1900 acres. FHL had assistance from Cal Fire and LPF.” I clarified this and it was 1900 acres with containment at 2100 hours.

It is 10 pm. I have been sitting here, thinking I smelled smoke, but not strong. Still, the smell of smoke is always a concern. So, a few minutes ago, I received an email from a member of the BSVFB indicating they came back from Lake San Antonio late today. There is a fire a ways south and east of me, but the drift was noted on Nasty-Fergy on their way home. I haven’t found any information available about this fire.

Nice to know my smeller is working, and I haven’t lost my mind or at least one of my senses!

Is this the one?
09/24/2010 16:47 LPF-3008 (New) Wildfire Gabilan Road

Wildfire Salmon Creek

2:00 pm – have heard nothing further on Salmon Creek at this point. Temperature is 95 up here. What a change from the last few days!

09/24/2010 12:55 LPF-3007 (New) Wildfire HWY 1 MM2 @ Salmon Creek

Page out indicated an abandoned campfire, so hopefully, this will be picked up early. I will continue to keep an eye and ear out on this today, as needed.

Heat Wave

Despite the heat wave that is arriving over the next few days, it was quite chilly at dawn today up here. I treasured it, seeing where the temperatures are headed.

From NOAA at 9 am this morning: “A SMALL UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS…PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WATER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AT THE COAST WITH 80S TO MID 90S INLAND.

AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR MULTIPLE DAYS…EVEN HOTTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE [AREA]. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT INLAND SPOTS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 90S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 100S…WHAT THERE IS STILL LESS AGREEMENT ON IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST.

Oh, and I believe this is the last weekend of hunting season. Oh, joy!

Harvest Moon and Autumn

Harvest Moon by Debbie Reed

From NASA: For the first time in almost 20 years, northern autumn began on the night of a full Moon. The coincidence sets the stage for a “Super Harvest Moon” and a must-see sky show to mark the change of seasons.

The action began at sunset on Sept 22nd, the last day of northern summer. As the sun sank in the west, bringing the season to a close, the full Harvest Moon rose in the east, heralding the start of fall. The two sources of light mixed together to create a kind of 360-degree, summer-autumn twilight glow that is only seen on rare occasions.

The Harvest Moon gets its name from agriculture. In the days before electric lights, farmers depended on bright moonlight to extend the workday beyond sunset. It was the only way they could gather their ripening crops in time for market. The full Moon closest to the autumnal equinox became “the Harvest Moon,” and it was always a welcome sight.

This one would be extra welcome because it is extra “Harvesty.”
Usually, the Harvest Moon arrives a few days to weeks before or after the beginning of fall. It’s close, but not a perfect match. The Harvest Moon of 2010, however, reaches maximum illumination a mere six hours after the equinox. This has led some astronomers to call it the “Harvestest Moon” or a “Super Harvest Moon.” There hasn’t been a comparable coincidence since Sept 23, 1991, when the difference was about 10 hours, and it won’t happen again until the year 2029.

A Super Harvest Moon, a rare twilight glow, a midnight conjunction—rarely does autumn begin with such celestial fanfare.

And by the way, I am interested in publishing a few fall photos from my readers. They must be taken in Big Sur. Send them to me as an attachment to an email only, please, to: kwnovoa@mac.com

Weather Concerns

From NOAA:
Today –
AS OF 8:45 AM PDT THURSDAY.TODAY WILL ALSO MARK THE TRANSITION TO A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP FOR THE SF/MONTEREY BAY REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH…. LOOK FOR A 5 TO 10 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW…. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHIFT WILL BE JUST HOW WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT BC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ECMWF RUNNING WELL ABOVE EVERY MODEL (RECORD HIGHS ARE INDICATED BY MONDAY). IN ADDITION…THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST HEAT TO THE COAST AND INDICATES 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S TO THE WATER ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OTHER GUIDANCE THAT COMES IN DURING THE SHIFT BEFORE DECIDING IF ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED OR NOT AND JUST HOW MUCH WEIGHT TO GIVE THE MUCH WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS. FOR NOW THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME…MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

This was yesterday-
“HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK… ESPECIALLY INLAND AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT…THERE COULD BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FUELS ARE AT CRITICALLY DRY LEVELS.”

MCCWPP Meeting report

Per today’s Herald:
“Tuesday’s board meeting went into early evening largely because of a contentious hearing on the proposed Monterey County Community Wildfire Protection Plan.

That 2½-hour session included impassioned testimony from Big Sur residents who lived through the Basin Complex Fire in 2008, as well as highly critical comments about the plan from a series of environmental organizations, including the Sierra Club.

The board directed staff to work with the various groups to provide a road map for making wilderness neighborhoods fire-safe.

Staff will ask the groups to work out major areas of disagreement. The board plans to revisit the proposed plan Nov. 9.”

I heard from 2 individuals who either were there or watched/listened online, and both gave reports from completely different perspectives that were similar to that related by the Herald. Both expressed frustration, but for very different reasons. So, next up – the November 9th meeting.

Tomorrow, I have some weather reports to post.

Big Creek Photos

Reader Seth Melchert sent me a few photos he took in Big Creek a few years back, and said I could share them with you. I chose these two because of my love of foggy photographs. Thank you Seth for sharing these with me and readers of bigsurkate.

Big Creek 2006 by Seth Melchert

Big Creek 2007 by Seth Melchert

Politics

Local Level – this afternoon at 1:30 pm in the BOS chambers in Salinas, discussion will address the Monterey County Community Wildfire Protection Plan.
More information here: The Herald

State Level – this is day 83 without a budget, and no one cares, except those of us who haven’t gotten paid.
“California is now two days away from breaking its late budget signing record, which stands at Sept. 23, 2008.”

Read more: Sacramento Bee

National Level – I am always hopeful, but don’t have the stomach to even think about it this gorgeous day.

Protecting Big Sur from Wildfire, Part 5

The VWA recently published a post on their forum on the position of the Sierra Club, Ventana Chapter. The position paper can be read here:

However, much of this particular position statement is designed to inflame emotions, not deal with the facts of the plan and its creation itself. If you can read it objectively, not from any particular point of view, one can see that it is not objective, and is written in inflammatory prose. I provide just two examples below, but there are many.

For example, I would note that there are statements which are inaccurate, based on information provided to me, specifically that this process was not inclusive. My understanding, obtained from those who attended the meetings, is that the Sierra Club, Ventana Chapter WAS invited to attend any and all meetings, and had one person attend two meetings. The Plan was also open to anyone requesting access via a collaborative web site. The Sierra Club, Ventana Chapter had access to this site and made no comments to the Plan.

The fire council meetings, the basis for the creation of the MCCWPP, have always been open to any member of the public that wished to attend. So to say this plan “was completed out of public view by a handful of rural residents” is misleading, at best, and designed to create an emotional response in the reader.

Another statement is: “This degradation could result in their conversion to non-native, flammable weedlands.” The operative word is “could.” Just fighting a fire, even without firebreaks, “could” bring in non-native plant communities. (Note the difference in the language between “non-native, flammable weedlands” and “non-native plant communities.” One creates an inflammatory emotional tone, the other does not.) Of course, the destruction of native species by wildfires opens up the introduction of non-native plant communities just from the blowing of the wind. And there are many miles of open, bare earth hiking trails, some 4 feet wide, thoughout the forest and wilderness that are just as exposed to non-natives, as well.

These are just two simple examples of the concerns I have over this position paper, and offered so that you might look at the paper in a more objective fashion, without being mislead.

Below is my personal opinion, representing only 2 years of studying wildland fire behavior, reading about 2 dozen books on the subject, and living through the Wild Fire of 1996; the Kirk-Hare Complex Fire of 1999; the Plaskett II Fire of 2000; The Basin Complex Fire of 2008; The Indians Fire of 2008; and lastly (for now) the Chalk Fire of 2008. This is only my own personal opinion, after my own investigation, reading of the plan, reading the letters in favor and in opposition, and everything I could find on the subject. It does NOT represent the opinion of any other individual or group.

I posted this on the VWA forum today (with some minor editorial changes for clarity):

Re: Monterey County Deserves a professional fire prevention
by bigsurkate on Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:36 am

I love the title “Monterey County Deserves a professional fire prevention plan.” The current version of the MCCWPP was prepared by professionals – many professionals from many fields of fire prevention and forest management. It has been studied and contributed to by many others.

Reasonable people and minds can disagree. Fire science experts and legal land use experts often disagree with each other, and do over this issue, as well. There are experts on both sides in both fields. Lawyers are trained to disagree. It is how we make our living.

Most fire science experts now agree that the policies of the last 100 years of fire suppression have gotten us into a pickle. We now have more large and catastrophic fires than ever before, which burn hotter and destroy more flora and fauna. Many fires, including the Basin Fire of 2008, have burned so hot in areas that the soil has been destroyed for generations. With a CWPP in place, we can obtain federal grants to start restoring the health of our forests through careful management. It will never go back to what it was before man started meddling with Mother Nature, no matter what steps we take, but we must try to learn from our mistakes and make better choices.

As long as there is Wildland-Urban Interface, firefighters will be fighting fires in an effort to save lives, property, and the environment. Their lives are important. Let’s give them the tools they need to be safe when they are protecting us, our property, and our environment. All the local firefighting agencies are behind this plan througout Monterey County, CA State Parks, USFS among others and have indicated their support by signing the Plan. Are they not professional? Do the voices of the people who risk their lives to protect our wilderness mean nothing?

How much of the wilderness did the Basin Fire destroy? 161, 800 acres, not counting the Indians and the Chalk Fires. Some of it will come back, but some of it will not. Will the MCCWPP lessen the impact of these catastrophic fires? No one can know for sure until we try it. We know what we’ve been doing hasn’t worked. Isn’t it time to try something else?

I would add to the above VWA post this question to the Ventana Chapter of the Sierra Club: while you say you have “been actively involved in this process” I would like to know how many meetings did you attend? How many recommendations did you submit on the plan during its development stages?

It would appear from your own statement that your “involvement” with the plan was conducted outside the meeting process itself, by contacting legal representatives and a fire expert from Santa Cruz. “For the past year, we have retained and consulted with attorneys, fire ecologists, other scientists, and fire consultants to review and assess several fire plans.”

Approaches to forest health and fire management vary in significant ways even among those who have studied it for decades. We do not understand all the factors and influences and may never understand them. There is no “one solution” fits all. Each forest is different, each topography is different, winds react differently, and weather changes moment to moment. What we “know” now to be true, will be proven false tomorrow, when we have more information. For the vast majority of human endeavors throughout history, particularly those dealing with our planet, Mother Nature, and her environment, this has been true. It is no different for forest and fire management. Any one or group who thinks they have “the” answer is deluding themselves and misleading others.