Month: January 2019

Highway Tentatively Scheduled to Close Mid-Day Mon. Jan. 14, 2019

                         **48-HOUR TRAFFIC ADVISORY UPDATE**

OF TEMPORARY CLOSURE HIGHWAY 1 AT MUD CREEK/PAUL’S SLIDE

MONTEREY COUNTY — Caltrans has received confirmation from National Weather Service (NOAA) data that a significant storm is in the forecast to begin in approximately the next 24-hours for the areas of Mud Creek (PM 8.9) and Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6) on State Route 1 in the Big Sur area.

This advisory is to inform the public to be prepared for closure of the roadway tentatively scheduled for mid-day Monday, Jan. 14 due to a significant storm. Stand-by for additional information within the next 24 hours and a final notice will be sent when the roadway closes. Caltrans will have our Geotech, Maintenance and Construction units on call and prepared to inspect/clean up during daylight hours when the storm ends and it is safe to be onsite again.

The gates on either side of Mud Creek and Paul’s Slide will be key locked. These gates will not be manned when the highway is closed. No one, including Emergency Services or Caltrans employees will be allowed access until a proper assessment can be made and any necessary cleanup has been completed.

 

NOTE: These advisories apply only to the Mud Creek and Paul’s Slide areas with each closure being treated separately–both locations will close tentatively on mid-day Monday, Jan. 14. Please stand-by for additional information within the next 24 hours.

 

Storm and Road Conditions, 1/12/19

11:00 am – from the NOAA forecast: “However, the next system will take aim at late in the day on Sunday. At this time, it looks like the southern portion of the Central Coast will see the rain first during the late afternoon noon hours, with the rain spreading north and east through the evening and overnight hours. This system will be similar to the last one in the fact that the bulk of the rainfall will be centered on the Big Sur coast line and areas south, with this area potentially seeing another inch or two of rain.”

9:45 am – Regardless of which model you believe, we are going to get a helluva lot of rain this coming week. Look at these two models:

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As of 8:30 am – Highway One is still closed between Ragged Point and Deetjen’s. But just received notice the closure will be opened at 11 am.

Per NWS: “Precipitation forecast from the GFS through next Thursday. After a brief dry break from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, next week looks very wet with rain expected in every six-hour time step from Sunday afternoon through Thursday.”

Note: my two regular features (Photo Sunday & Tourist Tuesday) MAY be suspended until the storm door closes.

Highway One Closed

I received notice this morning after midnight (I was asleep and just got up for a few moments at 3 am) that CHP requested Cal Trans close the highway at Fuller’s (MM 42) and Ragged Point at 10:11 pm. Cal Trans closure were to be set up 20 minutes later at Fuller’s and 1-2 hours at Ragged Point due to small slides in numerous locations.

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48 hour notice on Mud Creek & Paul’s Slide

48-HOUR TRAFFIC ADVISORY**

POTENTIAL TEMPORARY CLOSURE OF HIGHWAY 1 AT MUD CREEK/PAUL’S SLIDE

MONTEREY COUNTY — Caltrans has received notification from National Weather Service (NOAA) data that there is a significant storm arriving in approximately 48-hours for the areas of Mud Creek (PM 8.9) and Paul’s Slide (PM 21.6) on State Route 1 in the Big Sur area.

This advisory is for travelers to be ready in the event the roadway needs to be closed due to a predicted significant storm and allow time for them to prepare for the closure including stocking up on necessary supplies and making plans.

NOTE: At the 24-hour mark, an updated traffic advisory will be sent, either confirming the full closure or providing additional information. These advisories apply only to the Mud Creek and Paul’s Slide areas with each closure being treated separately.

 

Storm Watch #2, 1/11/19

10:30 pm – and it just won’t quit. Day one of ten…Mining Ridge, Chalk Peak, and Three Peaks are the ones you want to keep an eye on relative to Paul’s Slide and Mud Creek.

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Drops started here 12:21 pm, and it was pouring by 12:39 pm. John Lindsey of SLO just sent out his new predictions, and it is looking pretty grim. Rather than the storms ending by next Friday, they are now extended into the MLK weekend. So, rain pretty much for the next 10 days, with a couple short breaks, like tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning.

Another cold front brings strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain this evening into Saturday morning. Total rainfall amounts with this system are expected to range between 0.75 and 1.75 inches. Snow levels remain generally above 6,000 feet as this system is not expected to bring a cold air mass.

A break in the rain is forecast on Saturday afternoon  into Sunday morning. A 538 dm upper-level trough of low-pressure along the California coastline will direct a series of surface lows and frontal systems into the Central Coast  starting Sunday evening into Thursday. These vigorous surface lows, fronts and troughs will produce a prolonged period of moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (34 to 46 mph with gust 55 mph) southerly winds along our coastline and heavy rain throughout the Central Coast,  especially along the southerly facing slopes.

Both the ECMWF & GFS model runs have increased cumulative rainfall totals. If these models verify, between 4 and 8 inches of rain is forecast this evening through next Thursday with Big Sur receiving as much as 1 foot of rain over this period. The heaviest rain is expected  on Wednesday. Please see https://twitter.com/pge_john for rainfall graphics.

Unsettled and wet weather is now forecast for much of the Martin Luther King holiday weekend with generally above average daily temperatures. (Here is the graphic he mentions.)

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Storm Watch, 1/11/19

12:21 – the drops began, and now, at 12:39, it is pouring here in Slide Country.

10:00 am – From Daniel Swain of Weather West:

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Mud Creek Photos

Before I get to the Mud Creek photos, I ran across these photos of Paul’s Slide taken by Rock Knocker on 11/25/18 and I thought the comparison to the ones Brendon took earlier this week were enlightening.

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It has been a couple weeks since I showed you what is going on at Mud Creek, so I thought I would bring you up-to-date with photos before we are hit with a week of rain. These were taken by Rock Knocker on Wednesday.

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Storm Report 1/10/19

Oh, boy…Big Sur to receive up to a FOOT of rain in the next week? So says John Lindsey, SLO Meterologist.

The ECMWF & GFS models increased cumulative rainfall totals.  If these verify, between 3 and 8 inches is forecast Friday through next Thursday with Big Sur receiving as much as 1 foot of rain. The heaviest rain is expected Monday into Wednesday.

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And from Dave Hovde of KSBY:

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Paul’s Slide, 1/9/19

These photos were taken by Brendon Shave last night around dusk of Paul’s Slide on the west side of the highway. He drives the school bus through here 4 times a day M-Th. He believes this happened the day he took these or the day before. On the other side of the k-rail, there is 3 feet of mud or so…or there was last night at dusk. With more rain on the way, I sent these photos to Cal Trans and suggested an engineer take a look at this. I had originally scheduled this for first thing this am, but Cal Trans asked to be able to respond, so I postponed the post until I received their response.

A Cal Trans Geoengineer responded and sent me the first two photos, with the dates noted on them.  The last 6 photos are by Brendon taken at dusk last night.

“I received the photographs taken by a concerned citizen of the scarp adjacent to the road at Paul’s Slide yesterday. Our Maintenance Engineering and Geotechnical personnel have been observing that location for years and documenting it through photographs during the ongoing construction project. See the attached photograph from January 6th showing very similar geometry to the photographs sent yesterday, and a photograph from October 1st showing the same scarp feature before the fill reached the roadway elevation. The scarp and down-dropped material at that location are features of the landslide that constantly move and become more visible when the contractor is not actively working to place fill over them. We do not anticipate an imminent failure there and plan to fill in the dropping area when the site dries out and the contractor can access it. Please keep in mind that Paul’s Slide Complex is an active landslide and continued movement above and below the road are expected. The Department continues to monitor and maintain the area with our Maintenance Personnel and the contractor, including active patrols during the storms this week.”

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