From twitter about 11:30
CAL FIRE BEU
1 hour ago
CAL FIRE is planning a prescribed burn in the southern Diablo Range southeast of Pinnacles National Park (San Benito County) for Thursday, October 10, 2013.
Category: 2013 Fire Season
Fire Weather
.FIRE WEATHER…AS OF 1:32 PM WEDNESDAY…WATCHES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
HILLS GOES INTO EFFECT AT 11 PM AND RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WARNING FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS…MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO HILLS
STARTS THURSDAY AT 1 PM AND ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WARNING IS TIMED TO START WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE NAPA HILLS AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY HILLS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RH VALUES WILL
START OUT MOIST/HIGH INITIALLY BUT SOME CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD
BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN FAVORABLE SINKING REGION OF COLD
ADVECTION. FREQUENT WINDS GUSTS 30-45 MPH WITH A NORTHEAST AND DRY
DIRECTION. RH VALUES WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS WILL WINDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WONT BE AS STRONG WHILE RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR. WARM TO HOT AND
DRY FRIDAY WITH EASING OFFSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON.
CA-SLU-Creek Wildfire
Cal Fire says this is 100% contained as of 11:30 this am. Good job, ladies and gentlemen!
7:30 am – About 6 am this morning, a wildfire broke out at Highway One and El Toro Crrek. (Near Cayucos) It was 50 acres and spreading in rough terrain. Currently, it is 100 acres, and 30% contained. The IC (incident commander) called for more air attack, as access is difficult. Power lines are down. SLU (San Luis Cal Fire) SLO City have all been called in. BEU (Monterey/San Benito Co) Cal Fire are on the way to provide backup on the fire and by covering the SLU stations. I will be monitoring this until it is contained.
Vegetation Fire near HML
Photo by Meredith Gafill from Nepenthe.
2:20 pm – fire contained. Woohoo! Thanks for that, Kimball.
I have very few details, but USFS fire department on scene and others on way. USFS reports power lines down. from scanner listener…just heard forest service dispatch units to a fire on hwy 1 at marker 44….B 12, Engs. 15, 16, 31,38, WT 4, crews 3 & 7, PT 7 & 12, C 527 an 528
Wildfire at Highway 101 & 129
A collision between a big rig and a vehicle started a wildfire between Aromas and San Juan Bautista. Both drivers received major injuries. The Highway is expected to stay close until about 3:30 pm.
Mission Fire – FHL
1:22 pm – “@CalFireNews: #MissionFire made many rapid runs in north on east facing aspect with multiple spotting. Threat to private residences #CaFire”
12:45 – Monterey County Type 3 Strike Team en route to Mission Fire.
11:45 – just checked WildCAD, LPF, and they are reporting 4500 acres.
11:00 am – It is quite smoky over here. In fact, i can barely see Cone Peak. I have been trying to get updates on this fire, but having trouble. FHL doesn’t report publicly, like other agencies, so it is difficult. Do have a call out I’m waiting on, and will update when I hear.
Wildfire on FHL
From South Ops and New and Notes this evening:
2,500 acres, 25% contained.
Fire is spreading and continues to shift with weather patterns.
Fire made many rapid runs in north at an east facing aspect with multiple spotting.
Threat to private residence north at Pulman Canyon approx. 1 mile away on Avala Rd.
Evacuated radar site and military training areas off of Del Venturi Rd.
Update from a ff: “UPDATE as of 4:30 p.m.: the burned area has grown to 2,500 acres with no containment. About 200 firefighters are on the scene, from CalFire, the U.S. Forest Service, and others from across the region. No roads are closed or threatened at this time. Nacimiento-Fergusson Road to Highway 1 and the coast is open and should be clear of smoke as it is upwind.”
smoke drifting to north, visible in Chachagua. Beginning to see smoke from here, but I have a friend spotting for me from east of the fire, and he will notify me if the wind changes direction.
4 pm update – It is up to 1100 acres. SLO cty sending strike team 9341G that has B 3414, engs. 3461, 3472, 3465, 3466, an 3480 to the Ligg
Don’t have too many details. Fire on FHL in the Milpitas Shower Point area, and/or Mission CreekArea. It was reported to me about 11:45 am. Around 2:30, a LPF unit was dispatched to the Mission Fire on Mission Creek Rd. these two areas are very close together, so chances are they are the same incident. I’ll keep eye and ear out over this one, as FHL, as well as many other stations have engines up on the Rim fire near Yosemite, which grew 37k+ acres overnight last night. It is a nightmare.
BTW, can’t see any smoke from here, so can’t be too big.
This is what WildCAD says:
08/22/2013 11:24 FHL-2679
PFHW41 (1502) MISSION Wildfire Milpiltas Rd. and Mission Creek Rd. . BC11LPF CRW7LPF E15LPF 4X4 E16LPF 4X4 E18LPF E2565AZ E37AZ E43LPF E563AZ . . 100 acres.
Red Flag Warning # 2
Red Flag Warning extended:
@NWSBayArea: #redflagwarning just updated for #monterey and #sanbenio counties to continue through 5 am Tues. http://t.co/2ZdDI37CQv
Thanks to my son for finding this for me. Nice graphic. Midnight to 3am is the specific time.
Weather, clouds, lightning, and Missy
I did not have any thunder up here. Believe me, Dakota would have let me know. No clouds this morning, so maybe we dodged that bullet.
Off to the vet for stitches and tranquilizers. This is the second time in two months. Missy, of course.
In the meantime, enjoy this recent shot from Dan Danbom.
Red Flag Warning
2:45 update – over 6,000 lightning strikes across the west in the last hour per Bay Area NWS.
…RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN EFFECT BEGINNING
THIS EVENING…
.DISCUSSION…AS OF 8:40 AM PDT SUNDAY…AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE BIG SUR COAST…AND THIS WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CENTRAL
SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH POINT CONCEPTION…AND INTO THE SAN
FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS…PLUS THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS STILL AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP…AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STARTING TO TREND MORE NORTHERLY OR
OFFSHORE (ACV-SFO: 4.2 MB…WMC-SFO: 2.9 MB…AND SFO-SAC: 1.2
MB.) VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A SWATH OF MID CLOUDS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW…EXTENDING FROM SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO CALIFORNIA
FROM AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR DISTRICT WILL BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INITIAL
DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE…A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL INLAND AND
HILLY AREAS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND CHANCES WILL END IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
.FIRE WEATHER…AS OF 8:40 AM PDT SUNDAY…AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR DISTRICT BY LATE THIS
EVENING WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY…BRINGING IN
GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. INITIALLY…THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER
WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MEAN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES ONLY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY…BUT CONTINUE THE WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SF BAY AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BY LATE MONDAY…BUT EVEN THEN
NEW FIRE STARTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HOW DRY THE FUELS
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MODIFIED TOTAL
TOTALS UP TO 34C AND MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG) HOWEVER, BY MONDAY,
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND LIKELY BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE CWA.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS FAR FROM A SLAM-DUNK (CUT-OFF LOWS ALWAYS PRESENT
CHALLENGING FORECASTS) THERE REMAINS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF
OF REPEATED MODELS RUNS PLUS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND 48 HOUR
FORECAST OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND BY LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALSO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH (IN FACT, SOME
GUIDANCE QUICKLY REMOVES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES).