Category: Weather Conditions

Fall is here and brings the rain…

1:45 update – it started here a bit early. Yay!

The NWS in Monterey tweeted a few minutes ago: @NWSBayArea: Solid band of showers moving into northern Monterey Bay and should reach Monterey/Salinas areas around 2 to 2:30 pm.

After waking to wetness and the sound of rain in various places up the coast, this is welcome news. Perhaps this will put an end to this year’s fire season.

I have been missing from blogging due to health issues for me and one of my dogs. Also lost my cellular booster, but replacement should be here Monday. It is hard enough dealing with that when I’m healthy, and impossible when I’m not.

Wild & Scenic Film Festival

Wild & Scenic Film Festival – a benefit for the Ventana Wilderness Alliance
Henry Miller Memorial Library
Saturday, September 14
6:30 – 10:30 PM

In case you need another reason to join us at this year’s Wild and Scenic Film Festival, remember that not only will you get to see epic films that inspire the conservation of our last wild places;
your ticket automatically enters you in a raffle for great prizes from generous local and national sponsors, including:

– Big Sur River Inn dinner for two
– Big Sur Roadhouse dinner for two
– Julie Himes California Quail
– Juniper Ridge Big Sur gift basket
– Lucia Lodge dinner for two
– Marie Gabrielle numbered print of “Ventana”, artistically matted and framed by Frame Circus
– Monterey Pine Forest Watch The Monterey Pine Forest (book)
– Nepenthe Restaurant / Café Kevah $100 gift certificate
– Patagonia men’s micro-puff hoody
– Patagonia men’s merino wool speedway beanie
– Patagonia men’s organic cotton t-shirt
– Patagonia women’s micro-puff hoody
– Patagonia women’s merino wool speedway beanie
– Patagonia women’s organic cotton t-shirt
– Point Sur Lighthouse Tours four guest passes
– REI Half-Dome 2 three-season backpacking tent
– REI Traverse-30 day pack
– REI 20-oz flip-top vacuum coffee cup / bottle combo
– The Restaurant at Ventana Inn dinner for two
– Wilderness Press Hiking and Backpacking in Big Sur, 2nd edition

https://vwawsff.brownpapertickets.com/

More raffle prizes to arrive, so stay tuned. In the meantime, please support our sponsors and get your tickets soon-last year sold out well in advance and tickets are going even faster this year.

This year’s films:
Protecting the Big Sur Backcountry
A Desert Life
Yosemite Nature Notes- Sky Islands
The Summit
Wild Things
Ernest
Brower Youth Awards: Jacob Glass
The Water Tower
Eyes in the Forest: The Portraiture of Jim Lawrence
Song of the Spindle

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Happy Labor Day sprinkles

I am happy to report that we had sprinkles from the Big Sur Valley to the South Coast last night/this morning. We also have a lot of clouds down here, and I see rain out over the ocean I also have sunshine sparkling in places.

I have been informed that the highway is a nightmare, and if it is also wet, it is slippery with 8 months of oily build-up, so be safe this Labor Day.

Wet? As In Rain?

5:00 pm – I am sitting here watching rain out over the ocean, directly out from me – don’t know if it is making it all the way down, but trying to will it to come onshore!

I went to let the dogs out at first light today, and huh?? My deck was all wet! Some of the dust was washed off my Jeep – not all just some. I didn’t hear a thing, so hopefully no dry lightning, because this little bit of moisture couldn’t keep a fire at bay.

Did you have rain last night/this morning?

From NOAA:

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 09:43 AM PDT SUNDAY…MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO REFLECT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT TRENDS
THIS MORNING. NOTHING TO REPORT ON RADAR AS OF YET…BUT STILL
BELIEVE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE…NO CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

Red Flag Warning # 2

Red Flag Warning extended:
@NWSBayArea: #redflagwarning just updated for #monterey and #sanbenio counties to continue through 5 am Tues. http://t.co/2ZdDI37CQv

Thanks to my son for finding this for me. Nice graphic. Midnight to 3am is the specific time.

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Weather, clouds, lightning, and Missy

I did not have any thunder up here. Believe me, Dakota would have let me know. No clouds this morning, so maybe we dodged that bullet.

Off to the vet for stitches and tranquilizers. This is the second time in two months. Missy, of course.

In the meantime, enjoy this recent shot from Dan Danbom.

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Red Flag Warning

2:45 update – over 6,000 lightning strikes across the west in the last hour per Bay Area NWS.

…RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN EFFECT BEGINNING
THIS EVENING…

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 8:40 AM PDT SUNDAY…AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE BIG SUR COAST…AND THIS WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CENTRAL
SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH POINT CONCEPTION…AND INTO THE SAN
FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS…PLUS THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS STILL AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP…AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STARTING TO TREND MORE NORTHERLY OR
OFFSHORE (ACV-SFO: 4.2 MB…WMC-SFO: 2.9 MB…AND SFO-SAC: 1.2
MB.) VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A SWATH OF MID CLOUDS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW…EXTENDING FROM SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO CALIFORNIA
FROM AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR DISTRICT WILL BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INITIAL
DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE…A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL INLAND AND
HILLY AREAS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND CHANCES WILL END IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

.FIRE WEATHER…AS OF 8:40 AM PDT SUNDAY…AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR DISTRICT BY LATE THIS
EVENING WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY…BRINGING IN
GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. INITIALLY…THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER
WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MEAN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES ONLY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY…BUT CONTINUE THE WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SF BAY AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BY LATE MONDAY…BUT EVEN THEN
NEW FIRE STARTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HOW DRY THE FUELS

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MODIFIED TOTAL
TOTALS UP TO 34C AND MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG) HOWEVER, BY MONDAY,
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND LIKELY BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALTHOUGH THIS IS FAR FROM A SLAM-DUNK (CUT-OFF LOWS ALWAYS PRESENT
CHALLENGING FORECASTS) THERE REMAINS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF
OF REPEATED MODELS RUNS PLUS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND 48 HOUR
FORECAST OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS, GUSTY WINDS, AND BY LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALSO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH (IN FACT, SOME
GUIDANCE QUICKLY REMOVES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES).

Rocky Creek Closures

SPECIAL NOTIFICATION:  There will be three overnight full closures:  Monday, Aug. 19, Tuesday, Aug. 20 and Wednesday, Aug. 21 – from 9 pm to 7 am each closure, to set girders.  Wednesday night’s closure may not be necessary, we will send an update as soon as confirmation is received either way.

Amazing Fire Photo

This was shot today, at the Falls Fire near Lake Elsinore. I don’t know who the photographer was, it was posted on twitter by one of the fire agencies.

While I am struggling to re-figure out how to post again via a computer – forget an iPhone – and I have to remember how to type, again, I give you this amazing shot.

My admin backup, bigsurdeb, is dealing with a family emergency. Her mother is in ICU. We are all sending positive strengthening thoughts to her.

DC-10 on Falls Fire, 8/5/13
DC-10 on Falls Fire, 8/5/13

Is there life after iPad?

Mine died a quick death last week, so I can answer that … I think not. No idea I was so dependent on that little critter. I hadn’t backed up to iCloud since mid-June (hard at home). I think I will probably have lost some contacts, some appointments, some notes, and lord knows what else.

My new one will be here later this week. I am lost in the blogging world until then. Sorry =-(