Tag: El Niño

Weather Update, 2/17/16

IMPACTS

*Impact 1 (Rain) :

· Widespread rainfall can be expected with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially along the coastal ranges. The most notable impact will be potential for a wet afternoon/evening commute on Wednesday.

*Impact 2 (Winds):

· South to southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph can be expected in elevations near and above 1000 feet by Wednesday afternoon.

· These wind speeds may result in tree damage that could lead to isolated power outages.

· Difficult driving conditions are also likely in the higher elevations, especially for high profile vehicles and those pulling trailers/campers.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:

Wind Advisory for the Following Areas:

North Bay Mountains
East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range
Santa Cruz Mountains
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest
Mountains of San Benito County and Interior Monterey County, including Pinnacles National Park

· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

· Moderate to High for the timing and location of the greatest impact.

TIMING

· Wind speeds will increase over the region Wednesday morning and peak in the afternoon and early evening.

· Widespread rainfall will mainly impact the region Wednesday afternoon and evening with lingering showers continuing into Thursday.

LOCATIONS

· Widespread rainfall will impact the entire region on Wednesday.

· The heaviest rainfall will likely occur over the coastal ranges were isolated locations may pick up as much as 1.25” through Thursday night.

· The strongest wind speeds will impact locations near and above 1000 feet in elevations while locally breezy conditions are expected in lower elevations, especially near the coast.

Weather Summary

A Pacific storm system will approach the region on Wednesday and spread rainfall across the entire region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wind speeds will also increase Wednesday morning, peaking during the afternoon and early evening, ahead of a cold frontal passage. A few thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening with lingering showers likely through Thursday morning. A secondary, weak weather system passing to the north on Friday will bring another chance of light rain to the North Bay. However, no major impacts are expected at this time from this system.

BTW,this blog is in the finals for MC Weekley’s “best of …” Contest and voting is going on now.

 

“El Nino slow to start, fast to finish…”

… So says a respected climatologist from the JPL in Pasadena.

In January, well above normal amounts of rain fell in most Central Coast locations. My records indicate 1/31/98 rain totals were 41.7″ and 1/31/16 rain totals were 25.75″.

John Lindsey, SLO forecaster writes: “By the end of January, most of the local weather forecasters, including myself, felt confident that the wet El Niño gravy train pattern would continue.

However — in the heart of our rainfall season, no less — the weather pattern reverted to one we’ve seen over the last four years of drought, when a strong ridge of high pressure settled over the West Coast, forcing the storm track northward. Consequently, this condition created persistent Santa Lucia (offshore) winds, near or record-breaking warmth, and dry and clear skies despite this year’s record-breaking El Niño event….

Heavy rains may be on the way, and here’s why.

“It’s looking likely that we will whiplash from a weather pattern that resembles July to one that looks like March,” William Patzert, a respected climatologist with Caltech’s NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, told me over the phone Friday.

Dr. Patzert suggests the current El Niño might still be too big for Southern California, and the inland areas to receive heavy rain. The 1997-98 very strong El Niño event peaked in November and by February 1998 had shrunk to a much smaller size along the Eastern Pacific. This year’s El Niño event peaked much later — in fact, just last month.

His hypothesis states that the southern branch of the jet stream will shift southward later this month and take a position over Southern California. That will allow the storm door to swing open for the later part of February, March and into April for the central and southern parts of the state. Historically, the 1997-98 El Niño, along with the 1982-83 winter, produced its heaviest rainfall in the February-through-March timeframe, as well. Both of these El Niños were late bloomers.”

Critical  words in these statements are “may” and “hypothetical.” Weather forecasting, while substantially improved, is still as much of an art as it is a science. John Lindsey predicts the next bout of rain to begin Wednesday night. Another forecaster I hear predicts Thursday and Friday. Whenever it starts, while the summer-like weather has been great, it’s time for February to deliver.

 

Warm, clear weather … Then another round

I have been out of town for a while, but keeping an eye on the storms and road conditions. I, like many of you, will be preparing for the upcoming storm, restocking, getting laundry done and dried with the sun to make it easier, and catching up on making up for my absence to my dogs. Blogging is likely to be sporadic this week as a result.

It looks to be a warmer, clear week, with another storm building. Meterologist John Lindsey has this to say:  “Current longer-range forecast models suggest a stormy weather pattern starting Saturday afternoon and continuing through the following week. The models are indicating a particularly strong low-pressure system developing off the California Coast on Sunday with moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph) southeasterly winds, heavy rain and high seas. These are long-range models; consequently, the timing and intensity of this predicted storm will probably change as the week progresses.”

 

Highway One Road Conditions, 1/19/16

9:30 pm – Hard Closure to last until midnight – 2 am, according to a local who drove there and asked.

HIGHWAY ONE TO CLOSE AT 6:00 PM – Hard Closure at Fernwood to clear tree and fix power lines. Stay tuned to CHP site.

4:30 pm – PGE, Our Great ever-present BSVFD, and CT dealing with wires down across both lanes near Fernwood. Power to be turned back on when resolved.

there is also a slide at MM 44.30, per CHP, which is approximately 1/2.mile south of Ventana. There are other unreported slides, according to my son who just got back from town.

REMEMBER, CAL-TRANSCDOES NOT PATROL AFTER DARK, and with so much rain from this storm (5″ in many places on the South Coast) these slides are only just beginning! Even tomorrow, when there will be a break in the rain, slides will be occurring. BE SAFE OUT THERE!

Weather Report, 12/11/15

image8:30 am – I currently have a mixture of sun, clouds, and thunder – only one, but loud! I got almost 3/4″ yesterday, and another .16″ this morning. We are at 1.30″ for the month, and 6.30″ for the year.

If Mike Morales is able to get any sun this am up his way in Carmel, he will be out grabbing some big waves shots for your viewing this afternoon. 33′ at Point Sur at 11 pm last night! I’ll also be updating this weather report as necessary, throughout the day.

 

 

El Niño gearing up

Daniel Swain, of Weather West, whose great blog is found here, has confirmed that this week El Niño is making its way into Northern California. He has this to say:

“First, I want to reassure everyone that reports of El Niño’s demise have been -greatly exaggerated-demonstrably false. Very much to the contrary, El Niño is presently maintaining its record-breaking peak intensity, and temperature anomalies in the key Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean are higher on both a weekly and monthly basis than they have been at any time since at least the 1950s (surpassing even the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 events). Clearly, an extremely strong El Niño remains deeply entrenched in the Pacific–and, as I’ll discuss shortly, California weather impacts are starting to emerge.”

Our local forecast is for rain to begin Thursday afternoon/evening and continue into Friday, with another storm possible on Sunday. Most of us have been getting ready for months. Now we will find out how ready we really are. I bought myself a radio/flashlight that has the Monterey Weather station on it that runs via solar power or hand crank. It can even charge my cell phone, if necessary! Extra wool socks and heavy leggings were tucked in my Amazon box, too (as well as some things for others).

Big Sur prepares for El Niño

There is a nice little video about 4 minutes long on KION featuring our Cal Trans worker Ray Ortega as well as Kirk Gafill of Nepenthe. I don’t post videos on my blog due to costs, and in this case, possible copyright infringement, but here is a link:

Big Sur Preps for El Nino

Often times these links only work for a few days, so look at it as soon as you can. Enjoy this very crisp, clear day. Frost advisories thru tomorrow morning. I woke to 38 degrees outside, and 52 in. Immediately built a fire, and now just trying to get warm!

NOAA Experimental Predictions, end of Oct/beginning of Nov

imageFirst, above, this week. And below, later. I think the key word is “experimental.” So don’t get too excited, yet.

image

El Niño Journal – Jan. 10, 1998

(Saturday)

Yesterday’s meeting was long – it lasted until almost 2 pm. The last two hours of the meeting, the rain was quite heavy. I canceled the town run – went to River Inn for gas, bread, and muffins. Then went to Fernwood for a quick hamburger. Got home by 4:30.

It was a slow  drive home, between the rain, the rocks, and the non-working window defroster….

The rain is supposed to continue throughout the day today and then another storm developing Sunday afternoon. Predictions are for the rain to continue through Wednesday.

Even though some scientists are claiming that El Niño is weakening, others are stating that this is the beginning of its effects on the California Coast. The storms are stacking up out in the Pacific. In the last 24 hours we have recorded 2.7″, a significant amount…

Looking back at the rain totals for the last few years at the end of January we had:

1995 – 36″

1996 – 21″

1997 – 65″

Of course, in 1997 the rain pretty much ended at the end of January, and in 1995, March was the month of floods and the collapse of the Carmel River Bridge and 1996 was a relatively dry year.