Tag: El Niño

El Niño Journal – Jan 9, 1998

“Friday, January 9th – Obviously, I haven’t written much this week. This morning I have an hour before I have to lave for the Big Sur multi-Agency Advisory Council meeting at 10 am. There is a storm here today and [Rock Knocker] has told me I CANT drive Highway One in the rain, in the dark.

The meeting is expected to go until 1:30, but the agenda is PACKED with some very controversial issues, so I can’t imagine it will finish on time. I will have to leave by 2pm or I won’t be able to get to [town and then back to] the dirt by dark. [during meeting] Currently, the Pt. Sur naval facility is involving more time than I thought it would involve. Most of this large audience – the largest I’ve ever seen – is here for the Short Term Rental Ordinance. [ed. Note – somethings never change.]”

El Niño Journal – Jan 4,1998

“Sunday, Jan 4th – 1.7″ last night and it’s still raining today. Lots of wind at the moment.”

Didnt have any weather watching/recording equipment back then, except a couple plastic rain gauges. I did keep track on my calendar of how much rain I got each day and night, as well as the total to-date for the season. I kept them all, too…I just have to find them!

El Niño, 2015-2016

From David Swain, of Weather West:

“[T]he  flagship American and European models (the CFS and ECMWF, respectively) continue to hint at the possibility that this event could eventually become the strongest on record. That’s a pretty tall order–given the enormous magnitude of the events which occurred in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. On the other hand, model projections have become increasingly eyebrow-raising at the same time of year when our confidence in their reliability increases dramatically, so it would be unwise to discount them outright. Generally speaking, healthy skepticism is warranted when complex dynamical models make predictions that involve totally unprecedented extreme events. But 2015 has already been a year of record-breaking meteorological extremes across vast swaths of the Northern Hemisphere, and considerable evidence suggests that there will be more to come. At this point, it seems quite likely that very strong El Niño conditions will be in place by late autumn 2015, and there is some risk that the present event could eclipse even the extreme events of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998….

Overall summary: a very strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is now highly likely, and although the likelihood of a wetter-than-average winter in California is increasing, considerable uncertainty remains due to a highly unusual temperature configuration elsewhere in the Pacific.”

2015-2016 NOAA’s El Niño Diagnostic Discussion

“Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter. (Ed. Note, still unsure about strength.)
During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.
Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins.”

2015-2016 El Niño?

just a week or so ago, weather forecasters were saying the chances of an El Niño – in fact a strong one – for this winter were increasing substantially. Then today, NOAA, Monterey Bay said no, the models were all over the map.

The most succinct statement was issued today in the last paragraph of Daniel Swain’s blog, Weather West. He says: “And just to reiterate a key point from above: we still don’t know for sure whether strong or very strong El Niño conditions will ultimately develop (nor whether they will persist until winter, when they are most relevant for California). Confidence is starting to increase in current projections, since we’re now emerging from the Spring Predictability Barrier and most dynamical models are still suggesting the potential for a powerful event. But when we concatenate all the various uncertainties discussed above, there’s still something of an open question regarding what happens in California next winter. At this point, it’s fair to state that the likelihood of experiencing a wetter-than-average winter (and, perhaps, flooding) is increasing, but simultaneously that the risk of the California drought continuing into 2016 is nearly 100%. Needless to say: it will probably be a very interesting year to come for weather and climate-watchers in the Golden State. Stay tuned!”

It’s a fascinating read with some interesting animated graphics. I suggest you go take a look, then bookmark this guy, and/or sign up for email notifications. He only blogs about once a month, but that may increase as we approach the end of summer.

2015-2016 winter El Niño predictions

Okay, I am reading predictions of a super El Niño, rivaling 1998. So how accurate are these predictions? Per NOAA, it depends on when the prediction is made. In Spring, NO reliability, but as we move away from Spring, the predictions become more accurate.there is a great chart that demonstrates this.  

In the meantime, this is what forecasters are saying:

“NOAA’s CFSv2 model is forecasting a strong El Nino event will develop this summer and continue through 2015. Warm water along the west coast, combined with weaker than normal winds caused by El Nino will prevent nutrient rich cold water from welling up along the coast. Species that depend on nutrient upwelling will face starvation. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has an excellent El Nino forecasting model which is also predicting a strong El Nino. Because the jet stream has already gone into an El Nino pattern by moving south over the eastern Pacific ocean and Mexico and further north than normal over the eastern Atlantic ocean, the likelihood of El Nino failing to strengthen is small. Last year’s Kelvin wave failed to bring on a strong El Nino because trade winds in the south Pacific didn’t weaken but this year they have and waters along the west coast of south America have already warmed. The south Pacific has moved out of the cool mode it was in a year ago.”  

I will continue to explore and discuss this possibility as it developers, and IF it developers as predicted, I will explore what that means in terms of road closures for Big Sur by looking at what happened in 1998, the last Super El Niño.

Atmospheric River takes aim at the South Coast of Big Sur

For the first time in recent history (probably ever) The Weather Channel specifically mentions Lucia, Gorda, and Cambria, the biggest town – of a whopping 6,000 – being Cambria. It is because this is where this next big storm is expected to come ashore. This will find us late tonight or early tomorrow. The last one took aim at Santa Cruz and Big Sur Valley. Now it is our turn. I am as ready as I can be. Take advantage of this break, as the next one is not due until Thursday.

Take a look at the info I added to the last post, The Calm Before the Storm, for some good info and links about this Atmospheric River.

El Niño Pedictions

From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:

The model predictions of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6), most likely transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

And on another note:

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Coming El Niño?

There are a lot of articles beginning to circulate about a possible very strong El Niño winter. Comparisons are being made to the El Niño of 1997-1998.

From a listing of historical floods in Monterey County going back to 1911 compiled by the MCWRA:

February 1998
In February 1998, a series of “El Niño” winter storms hit various parts of California, and particularly Monterey County. Close timing of the rainfall events contributed to intense flooding, in that heavy rain would continually hit ground that was still saturated from the previous rain. An estimated 50 roads and highways were closed or restricted, in most cases due to washouts, landslides, and mudslides. Several communities were evacuated, particularly the entire town of Pajaro near Watsonville, all residents of the Sherwood Lake Mobile Home Park near Carr Lake in Salinas, and portions of Bolsa Knolls and Toro Estates. Drinking water quality warnings remained in effect for certain areas for some time afterward. By the end of the first week of February, at least 6,600 homes and businesses had been without power for varying periods of time. The State Governor declared Monterey County, amongst others, a disaster area.

The most significant type of damage involved land and mudslides. In particular, the Las Lomas area experienced severe damage of eight residential parcels which Monterey County acquired, through the Federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, removing all property improvements. Each parcel was subsequently rezoned to “open space” in perpetuity.

County-wide, losses resulting from the February 1998 events are estimated at over $38 million, with specifically agriculture-related losses totaling over $7 million and involving approximately 29,000 damaged acres.
historical Floods in Monterey County

And here are the most recent ENSCO reports from NWA/NOAA

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Historically, Spring predictions are often inaccurate on these, but the May 8th report promises to be more enlightening.

Weather Report

Looks like light rain on Sunday, per NOAA discussion. I will be back by then, too.

“AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND BRING CLOUDS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS. PRECIP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT — IN FACT THE 5 DAY QPF NUMBERS FROM HPC SHOW LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN FOR HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.”

The search for the missing kayaker has been called off.