Tag: rain

Real-time links & Monday’s Storm

Weather reports are indicating that the Monday night storm will be much weaker than Saturday night’s storm, bringing us only between 1/10 and 1/4 of an inch of rain, probably after about 10 PM and the rest of the week is predicted to be dry. Good news, both.

Thanks to Tom Hopkins, President of the VWA, I added two new links under “2008 Winter Conditions.” One is from the automatic weather reports at the MIRA Observatory on Chews Ridge, and the next one is the NOAA river discharge rates for the Big Sur River. These are “real-time” computerized reports, and should be very valuable as we keep an eye on things this winter. Thanks, Tom!

Also, I added a “real time” link to the automatic rain gauge on the Big Creek Reserve, up by Highlands Peak, thanks to Dr. Mark Readdie!

We are getting a good collection of sources of information so we can be aware and prepare this winter!

Storm Watch, 11/2/08

DEBBIE’S STORY:

Got a call from Debbie this morning. She lives at Juan Higuera Creek and the Big Sur River, for those who do not know her. She ran out of her house last night with nothing but the clothes on her back. One car was up on higher ground, but if she opened the door to the Explorer, the water would have rushed in. So she set out on foot, through mud up almost to her thighs, with Molly, her younger yellow lab walking with her up to the highway, by flashlight. Billy, the older yellow lab, had to be left behind, as he cannot walk well, and is WAY to big to carry.

“It all happened so fast,” she said.

BUT Blaze Engineering came to the rescue — Tevye Morgenrath and Dave Martin — with their BIG equipment. Tevye got Billy into the bucket of the loader, and drove him up to Glen Oaks, where Debbie was!! Her house is covered in mud, the porch is pretty much gone, but she and the dogs are okay, thanks to Blaze, who also redirected the water away from her house and back to the Big Sur River. What a story! She will send me photos tomorrow. She wishes she got one of Billy in the loader’s bucket!

And all of us who love Debbie send BIG hugs and kisses to Blaze Engineering’s Tevye and Dave for helping our friend during this winter storm event! Thanks, so much!!

And here’s a photo from this morning, just for grins.  You’ve all seen my view to the north hundreds of times, during the fire. Here’s one looking south. That is Los Burros or Willow Creek top in the back.

9:30 AM Road conditions: As reported earlier this morning, the road is open again. However, as we all know, it could close again at any time, particularly at night, when Cal-Trans no longer patrols. For the next four months, use caution while traveling Highway One, particularly between Andrew Molera and Mill Creek, and particularly at night!

Juan Higuera Creek: Joyce Duffy just called with an “on the ground” report that the culvert and small bridge on JH Creek just before you get to The Grange is clogged and the river is now flowing OVER the bridge, through the parking lot of the Grange. Debbie is out, with her animals, thank god. Joyce just walked this area, and is going to higher ground herself.

Storm conditions: Reports from the north, and conditions here on the ridge, seem to indicate this storm is over, with a rainfall of 2.4 inches, or 2.9 for the season. 

Predictions are that another storm will be arriving Monday night. I have not heard about the strength or timing of this storm, yet.

Interesting to compare rain totals down here at different elevations. At Highlands Peak, at Big Creek Reserve, the 24-hour total is 1.78″ at an elevation of 2490′; at Plaskett Ridge top the 24-hour total is 2.4″ (mine doesn’t do 1/100ths) at an elevation of 3272′ (okay, the rain gauge itself is probably only at 3200′, but I don’t have an altimeter); Mining Ridge is 2.91″ at an elevation of 4790′. (Mining Ridge is at the confluence of Big Creek and Devil’s Peak, north of Cone Peak). Fascinating the relationship between elevation and rainfall. Well, at least to me.

8:30 AM – Just had a serious cloud burst, here. Probably 1/10 of an inch in 10 minutes. Is letting up somewhat, now.

7:30 AM This “unofficial” report:

“Just got off the phone with Tom at Lucia. He says CalTrans has been by this morning and road is open now. Just lots of rocks down but, not any slides to speak of. The road at the [Coast Gallery] had some big rocks come down there according to Danny.” Reported by Keith. Thanks for this, Keith.

6:30 AM – 2.3 inches for this Saturday/Sunday storm. Season total: 2.8

5:30 AM Still raining. Will get rain totals when it is light and I can see the gauge. CHP reports below on closure. As I understand it, MM 46 is in the area around Sycamore Canyon Rd:

 

ADDITIONAL DETAILS 3:57AM NB CLOSURE AT BIG SUR 3:55AM SB CLOSURE AT LIMKILN 3:55AM NORTH END CLOSURE AT MM 46 RESPONDING OFFICERS STATUS 3:55AM CHP Unit On Scene 

Storm Watch, 11/1/08

HEADS UP, EVERYONE!

jack is reporting: Posted by Jack

Mud is flowing onto Hwy 1 between Fernwood and Pfeiffer Big Sur State Park.
Redwood Creek is flowing over the culvert bridge/driveway inside the park.

9 PM Highway One reported closed 4 miles south of Lucia. Cal-Trans reports:   [IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA] 

    IS CLOSED FROM 7.9 MI NORTH OF GORDA TO 6.2 MI NORTH OF PFEIFFER BURNS
STATE PARK (MONTEREY CO) AT 2053 HRS ON 11/1/08 – DUE TO ROCKS IN THE ROADWAY – 
MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE 

 I am on back-up power, so won’t be reporting until tomorrow am, but Dave Allen reports that the rains are significant in Carmel, about an hour ago, which means it will be arriving here shortly. PLEASE, stay safe, everyone!

6:30 PM – we are just over 1/2 an inch at the moment, around .6. So far, so good. However, I note roadway flooding is being reported in the NB lane of Highway 17 up in Santa Cruz County at the moment. Hope that is not indicative of what is coming our way. According to the NOAA precipitation map (see 2008 Winter Conditions link) Ben Lomand has received 3.4 inches in the last 24 hours. Mining Ridge (closest to me of the permanent reporting gauges) is showing .67, consistent with what I am reporting.

1/2 inch by 4:30 PM

Only 1/4 inch by 2 PM.

11:15 AM – Rain has begun, a little early. What better way to spend a Saturday than watching the rain gauge? Oh, and you might note, I added a new link category, “2008 Winter Conditions” to the blog roll, and turned off some of the fire-related ones. Here you will find links to Cal-Trans, CHP, Weather, and surfire2008. While I will post important information from all sites here, you may also want to check yourself. The fire-related links be back next fire season. For the next four months or so, 2008 Winter Conditions will be much more important for us to stay abreast. I will add more helpful links, as I find them.

9:30 AM – Winds picking up. Everything is either covered, closed, and/or battened down. Rain gauge emptied. I am ready. Here’s the national weather report:

DAY ONE...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT 
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH 1-3 INCHES
OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WETTER LOCATIONS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS OF MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS IMMINENT.

7:30 AM – No rain overnight. Season total = .50 inches. Will report throughout the day.

Storm Watch, 10/31/08

6:00 PM – Rain totals: .25 for storm; .50 for season. Tomorrow afternoon should be interesting, and I will report on rain activity as necessary.

NOON – Slight rain, on and off, nothing to speak of or even measure. Will continue to provide rain totals three times a day on the days when I am home, for those interested.

7:30 AM -Rain gauge total this am is .25 inches here at 3272′ in the Santa Lucia Mountains for the storm, .50 inches for the season. Very mild indeed. Still some wind, but pretty quiet.

Sorry about the fonts and spacing. Can’t seem to get it to change, line up, or do anything I want it to do. The information is there, it is just hard to read.

ICS being instituted by Frank Pinney, who reports at 7:OO am, including the weather predictions for our area:

ICS Core Group:
 
Below is the National Weather Service 
prognostication for today and the weekend.  
Note the potential for 3” of rain in the Santa
Lucia Mtns coincides with the number spoken at
the SEAT meeting Wed night by the forecaster. 
(Total up to 4” for the system)
 
Let me know by email now if you will be 
available Saturday for consultation by 
phone or email or both.  
 
I do not expect that we will need to convene 
at the MAF during this event, and it will be 
an opportunity to observe how information 
about the storm conditions gets to us and 
can be used to correlate what’s happening on 
the ground. 
 
Anyone have rain gauge figures storm-to-date 
from your location?
 
The period of most likely storm activity 
appears to be Sat PM into the evening.  I have
some of your cell # but not all.  Please send 
the number if you have one and we don’t 
regularly contact each other by cell.
 
Thanks for your diligence.  We will try to keep
everyone up to date on developments.
 
I take comfort in my Mom’s counsel, “Our worst
fears never happen.”
 
Frank
 
 
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
444 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2008
 
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:57 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE 
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE 
DISTRICT LAST EVENING BUT ONLY DROPPED LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST FROM ABOUT 
SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. KMUX IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING RESPECTABLE REFLECTIVITY 
RATES OF UP TO 40 DBZ WITH THIS RAIN BAND...
ALTHOUGH THESE REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALOFT...
AROUND 7000-8000 FEET AGL. AFTER THIS IMPULSE 
MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR A DECREASING SHOWER 
TREND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DECREASING AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY IS 
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM...AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO END AT THAT TIME 
AS CURRENT WIND SPEEDS
ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE.
 
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT 
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DUE IN ON SATURDAY. 
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO 
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
AREAS (I.E. SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES).
 
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER
COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR SINCE 
THURSDAY. THE MODELS
AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON TIMING...INCREASING 
LIGHT WARM-ADVECTION
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF 
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SF BAY 
AREA...AND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE 
FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 
THE COASTAL HILLS...TO
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA LUCIA 
MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
THAT MUCH RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY A CAUSE FOR 
CONCERN IN THE BURN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY IF THE BULK OF IT FALLS 
WITHIN A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVER THE BURN AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND 
MONTEREY COUNTIES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF 
SATURDAY.
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. 
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY AND WINDS ADVISORIES MAY BE 
NECESSARY.
 
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL 
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER 
OFF ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN
PICK UP MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
 SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY 
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY.