8:00 pm – I LOVE the sound of the rain! We are so thirsty!,,
7:00 pm – I didn’t think much of this storm, so haven’t followed it closely, but the tell-tale winds tonight let me know it was coming, and then, letting the cats out at 7:00, the drizzle let me the front was just beginning to arrive. I’ll check my usual sources, and let you know what I find out. I know SLO, was predicting this morning that it wouldn’t go much south of Paso.
Noon – from the 9 am forecaster a winter weather advisory for the Santa Lucia Mts and the Los Padres National Forest.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER THE SANTA LUCIAS AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF
SHORE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA LUCIA
MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS
OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
BEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT. THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS THAT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE IS PRESENT THE WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY BE COMING FROM THE EAST…LIMITING THE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
SEEN WHEN MOIST WEST WINDS ARE PUSHING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NON THE
LESS THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET AND 1 TO 4
INCHES AT ELEVATION OF 2500 TO 3000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 AM THURSDAY TO 1000 AM FRIDAY.
8:00 am, From NOAA’s 3:30 am forecast discussion –
RAIN WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AIR LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE COAST…IN PARTICULAR MOUNTAINS IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2500 FEET WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OVER 3000 FEET. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.
They also mention the possibility of hail and lightning. Stay warm, everyone!
Also, Rocky Creek Road Closures:
Night closures next week are as follows:
· Sunday, March 10 through Thursday, March 14—9 pm to 11 pm with up to 10-minute delays;
· Sunday, March 10 through Thursday, March 14—11 pm to 7 am (Friday am) with up to 30-minute delays;
(Roadway will remain OPEN each night next week—no overnight hard closures)
8:00 pm – From a friend, and former Big Surian, in very Northern California, near Arcata: “Heads up- The light storm they predicted up here has turned out to be pretty fiesty- Big winds and about 1/2 inch rain so far. Winds blew so hard that smoke came back down the chimney into the house.”
Per an earlier NOAA, this is heading our way, but quite peaceful at the moment. I’ll send out an alert to a friend in Petaluma, and maybe she can let us know when it hits there. Petaluma: “Wind has come up within the last half hour and light rain starting, very cold!”
I put another log on the fire.
And there is the satellite photo from NOAA and Capt Lingcod.
Part of the forecast discussion from NOAA:
…BUT IF THE NAM AND EURO KEEP SHOWING HIGH QPF A WINTER
WEATHER ADV WILL BE NEED FOR THE HILLS OF MONTEREY/SAN BENITO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO SNOW POTENTIAL…THE A
COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ENTIRE
CWA IN GEN RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
Significant storm in our midst, and it really picked up here – as in very heavy rain, so heavy and loud the dogs are shaking – in the last few minutes. CHP is reporting that 101, north of Chualar is flooding, and cars are spinning out. I am trying to upload some radar and vapor satellite photos, but no luck at the moment. In any event, please be careful if you are going to be out and about tonight. Avoid it, if you aren’t already out.
These photographs were taken this morning by impetuous son …
Been trying to post this on and off all day! grrrr…The rest of the day, I took off from blogging. Cal Trans announcement, Highway One officially opened again at 6:45 am. (But you will note from a post at 10:45 pm, it was unofficial ly open much earlier!)
Tomorrow, I’ll be braving Mud Creek, which has been moving a bit lately.
4:00 pm – it is eerily quiet up here now, after days and days of wind and rain. The sun is trying to break through, but I have my usual condensation cloud trying to form, so I might not see the sun until tomorrow. I am going to take the evening off, unless something major happens tonight. Will check in with y’all tomorrow.
2:29 PM 13 [27] CLOSED – VINEHILL BWTWN 2101 VINEHILL AND CAMINO VISTSA/SINK HOLE/CLOSED TIL FURTHER NOTICE – NB LANE IS GONE (Due to road being undermined) this is Santa Cruz Co.
1:00pm- just over 2″ in my gauge since this storm started.,Winds gusting over 40 mph in the last 1/2 hour. Wicked up here! CHP very busy in Monterey – trees blocking both lanes of the 68e OFR from Highway One SB vehicles having to back up OFR. CLOSING THE OFR until 40 ft of trees dan be disposed of. 101 flooded JNO of Chualar and at Spence Rd. There is a mud/dirt/rock slide on San Miguel Canyon Rd. just to name a few of the serious problems developing.
Noon – power went out in Big Sur Valley about 1/2 an hour ago. Unknown how extensive. Been wicked up here – wind and rain – but I have no leaks, I have a great fire going, and I have power, as I planned ahead and charged up my solar battery yesterday. Hope everyone stays safe and dry!
10:30 am – NOTICE 101 NB and SB lanes in Santa Clara and San Benito Co. Flooded – proceed with caution! Friend just made it to town from Big Sur Valley safely. I am having Internet gremlins, again, so will update as possible.
7:00 am – no closures on CHP site, here, at this point. Santa Cruz has some mud slides. Not a good day to be out and about, but if you are, and can post a comment about road conditions or other information, we encourage you to do so. Time and place make the information more useful. Here is NOAA forecast discussion:
.DISCUSSION…AS OF 3:00 AM PST SUNDAY…RAINFALL HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN
THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. A
COUPLE OF GAUGES IN THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN 1 INCH OF
RAIN BETWEEN 12:30-3:00 AM…SUCH AS UVAS CANYON COUNTY PARK IN
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS…AND CHALK PEAK/MINING RIDGE/ANDERSON
PEAK IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS. IN FACT…CHALK PEAK HAS
RECEIVED NEARLY 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING T HIS PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY CAN BE ACCESSED AT THE CNRFC HOMEPAGE
(WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/GOOGLE_PRECIP.PHP).
SATL IMAGERY AND LOCAL RADARS ARE INDC THAT THE MAIN FRONT IS
NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY…BUT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
THE COAST IT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SOUTH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD
COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO SHIFT SOUTH
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND THERE COULD
BE WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING…MAINLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING…
Looks like another fun day in store for us, boys and girls!
1 pm – I contacted MoCo Rd re N-F, given the possible conditions on Highway One, and this is what they said: “Public Works crews are headed to N-F Road, should get there in about an hour. They’ll drive from East to West to check conditions. I won’t hear from them for hours, but I’ll let you know what I hear back.” Also, something is happening on Old Coast Rd, but can’t tell what. MoCo Rd advised, per CHP.
12:10 – 101 at Crazy Horse Canyon closed for an hour to remove debris CHP didn’t say if it was NB or SB.
Noon – Another cell phone alert. NOAA FLASH FLOOD Warning extended to 1:30 pm
NB 101 #2 lane north of Chualar is completely flooded. Water has been rising since 9 am, per CHP.
11:30 am – Rocky Creek is still open at this point, but my sources says there are rocks everywhere there could be rocks. More as things develop.
11 am – CT is calling it the Rocky Creek Closure. Not official, yet. I have sources headed that direction, will post as soon as I hear from them or get official notification.
This is Juan Higuera Creek, photo by bigsurdeb. Thanks, deb!
10:30 am – per phone alert from NWS, flash flood warning extended until noon. Downloading a photo of Juan Higuera Creek which I will upload if I can! Internet is working, but slow and iffy.
10:00 am – CHP reporting mud/rock slide in Rocky Creek construction area. Spooky! This was removed from the site less than 5 mins after reported.
9:30 am – just got an alert to my cell phone that we have been upgraded from a flash flood watch to a flash flood warning until 10:30 am, which means flooding is imminent! The loud unusual beeping startled me, and it took a minute to figure out it was my phone!
9 am – There is a boulder down at Hurricane Point, some workers from town are reporting the Highway is a lake, but so far, no major slides reported. Probably some smaller ones I haven’t heard about. Flash Flood Watch still in effect here in Big Sur, LPNF, and Santa Lucia Mountains, so be careful out there! One friend in Big Sur Valley reported almost 2″ overnight. NOAA Big Sur RAWS reports just over 3″ in the last 24 hours. I haven’t checked mine, yet. Winds still a factor today, as well. As bigsurdeb says, ” Quack, quack.”
Here is today’s satellite photo from Dave Allan to show what is in store. It is a slow moving storm, so we will likely see heavy rain at times in certain areas.
And here is the current NEXRAD
…Flash Flood Watch in effect from 7 PM PST this evening through Monday morning… The National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of California… including the following areas…Santa Lucia mountains and Los Padres National Forest and southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur coast. * From 7 PM PST this evening through Monday morning * rain is scheduled to arrive tonight and continue through the weekend with several storm systems. Copious amounts are expected in higher elevation areas…totals of 6 inches or more may fall. Given that watersheds are saturated from the prior storm on Tuesday…some smaller creeks may approach or overtop banks. * Storm drains may be overwhelmed and culverts may become blocked by debris…urban flooding is likely. At times… rainfall rates may exceed guidance thresholds for producing debris flows and slides in mountainous areas. Precautionary/preparedness actions… A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
4:00 pm – I got a 1/10th of an inch today, bringing the season total to 4.6″. It just started POURING here! Fortunately, I had already got all the fur kids inside to feed them. Got so dark about an hour ago, I turned on a light, filled a couple of oil lamps and lit them, and put another log on the fire for the evening. I love reading on my iPad – don’t need a separate light! I have found that if I run my genie for about an hour a day during these “no sun days” I have power for at least 24 hours, if I am judicious. I haven’t pushed it to see how long the power lasts, just run it every afternoon for an hour. What a great system!
I have been monitoring the CHP site on and off all day, and so far, no serious issues on Highway One, at least here in Big Sur, although I am sure CT has had their hands full.
10 am – here is the latest satellite photo, courtesy of Dave Allan
Here is the latest NEXRAD
As we all know, significant rain expected tonight through Sunday, per NOAA. Looks like we will get a break during the day today, although I got a bit of rain about an hour ago.
Also, the latest Rocky Creek update (#7) provides the usual closures next week, Sunday through Thursday, 9 pm-7am. For visuals of the bents being installed, scroll down a couple of posts.
