Tag: storm

Storm, 11/28/12

NOTE – I have no clue why all my links categories disappeared and everything is lumped together as “bookmarks.” I am trying to rectify. Sorry for the inconvenience! An hour later, they reappeared just as mysteriously as they disappeared. Cyber goblins, clearly!

2 pm – the only “known” casualty at my place, so far, and I haven’t checked much, is my front screen door. It is in tatters. I don’t believe my wind gauge. It has been far stronger than 35 mph. Checking automatic sites in the area, those gauges are reporting much higher winds. Santa Cruz County is not fairing very well. Every time I check the CHP website there is another road closure due to downed trees or power lines, even one that sparked a vegetation fire. Hang in there everyone!

11am – 24″ tree down on 68 near Morse Blvd. blocking the EB lane.

Up here, I woke at 3 am to heavy winds. By dawn, they were quite impressive, and have remained so. The rain began just after 8 am. I was both a Curved Bar Girl Scout and a WAC. I have been trained to “Be Prepared.” I think I am. I sit in front of a roaring fire, with plenty of wood on hand.

In checking my usual sites, I see there is already a tree branch impeding traffic at Point Lobos, but should be removed shortly. Probably just the first of many, given the winds. Also NOAA is reporting that 4-8″ of rain is expected by Sunday in Big Sur and Los Padres. I’ll probably be on the 8″ side, but haven’t checked, yet. Later, when there is a break.

Wind is averaging about 25-27 mph per my gauge, with gusts of 35 mph. That’s between 10-11 am.

Be safe, be aware, and be careful out there. I am staying put!

Here is the NEXRAD radar:

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Getting ready for storms

Today was prep day, and I had help – getting wood inside, getting two leaks patched (hopefully), making sure I had enough water – nothing is worse than running low on water when it is raining cats and dogs outside – cooking up a batch of chili, turning a Sat turkey carcass into soup for the duration, making sure as much is secure as I can. My job was to man the kitchen. 😉 An easy job, I must say.

All eyes will be on the weather stories for the rest of the week. Would love to share yours with my readers. Send to kwnovoa@mac.com

Here is the satellite shot, thanks to Dave Allen!

BTW, great moonrise tonight between the clouds. Wish I’d had my camera!

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Could be interesting weather Sat. nite – Sun

This is what NOAA has to say: ” LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PUSH TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA … BRINGING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SPELLS A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH RAIN WILL PUSH TOWARDS MONTEREY. COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF MT HAMILTON RECEIVES A DUSTING OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.”

Woohoo! I could have snow this weekend! I shot some photos of Pitkins and Rain Rocks on Wednesday evening, that I will try to post this afternoon. One is particularly nice. (teaser)

Two storm fronts colliding

Late this afternoon, my neighbor and I got to view what probably few people see. Souh of Plaskett, winds were blowing to the north. One could see it on the ocean. North of Plaskett, the winds were blowing to the south, with a maelstrom on the ocean where they met. I can only guess that it was two fronts meeting. What a strange phenomena! Neither my neighbor or I had ever seen anything like it!

Storm Watch, 2/15

10:00 pm – okay, one last post. Forecast discussion, usually on a twice every 24 hour schedule, has been publishing more than usual, and issued a new report this evening, around an hour ago. It had this to say:

 

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE BURN AREAS OF MONTEREY AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED TO THE
WEST OF THESE AREAS. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY
PUSHED 12 HOUR RAIN TOTALS CLOSE TO USGS THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING
DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BURN SCAR.
HOWEVER...RAIN RATES HAVE RECENTLY DECREASED IN THAT AREA AND SO
THE THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS/FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY.

 

8:30 pm – nothing happening but the incessant wind and rain, so will check back in the am. Be Safe.

7:00 pm – I have been assured that the signs are still up for a “soft” closure at Bixby Bridge and the Big Sur Deli, but that they are not manned. Hotel guests with reservations, as well as residents are allowed through the closure, at this time. Also, when I first started watching the Big Sur River flows this am, reports indicated right around 100 cubic feet per sec. As of 6:15 this evening the rate is given as 646 cubic feet per sec. SurCATS is reporting the river has risen one foot today.

6:00 pm – CHP page is listing NO closures on Highway One in the Big Sur area. Don’t ask me, I’m just reporting what I find. 

5:00 pm – the gennie just ran out of gas. I will check in from time to time throughout the evening to conserve battery until morning. Stay alert, everyone. The road is going to decide where to put its own hard closures before morning. How bad it will be, and where are the only issues left in my mind.

4:30 pm – with the main portion of the storm coming in tonight, the confusion about where any “soft” or “hard” closures are going to be placed by CalTrans and/or the CHP is basically unimportant. If the storm lives up to the predictions, it will all be irrelevant tonight anyway, as the ROAD is going to put the “hard” closures where it wants, without ANY regard to the CHP or CalTrans.

And this afternoon’s forecast discussion states: “THREE GAUGES RIGHT

 ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST...ANDREW MOLERA...FLORES CAMP...AND ANDERSON
 PEAK HAVE ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN HOURLY RAIN RATES DURING THE PAST
 HOUR WITH UP TO .31 INCH PER HOUR."

4:14 pm – CHP reports: “CATRANS PUT SOUTHERN CLOSURE @ THE DELI IN BIG SUR”

3:31 pm – CHP reports: “RESIDENTS ALLOWED INTO AREA ONLY.”

3:00 pm – CHP reporting “soft” closure from Bixby Bridge to southern end. No longer restricted to southbound traffic. Still subject to change, and still hoping to keep the closure “soft” this evening. For those of you not familiar to the difference between a “soft” closure and a “hard” closure, with a “soft” closure, residents, employees, etc. are generally permitted into Big Sur and tourist out of Big Sur. With a “hard” closure, only emergency personnel are allowed into the area.

2:31 pm – Cal-Trans to do a “soft” closure at Bixby Bridge to southbound traffic, all through to the “end.” Hope to keep it as a “soft” closure at dusk, but all subject to change as the storm continues. Having trouble keeping up this afternoon.

2:30 pm – solo vehicle accident – hits rock slide at MM 33, right near Esalen. Boy, Cal-Trans and CHP quite busy today. I hope they get their overtime despite the $#@& legislators in Sacramento, Maldanado included, who REFUSE to pass a budget!

2:20 pm – HIGHWAY ONE TEMPORARILY CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO SLIDE AT HURRICANE POINT. CT working to get it open.

1:55 pm – another one just posted, just south of Bixby Creek Bridge covering north bound lane. We are liquifying, boys and girls! That’s 5 blockages of Highway One, so far today, and it is only 2 pm!

1:50 pm – two slides, one at Partington Rd. blocking the northbound lane and one at Graham’s Canyon (Grimes?) not yet blocking the road, per chp.

12:15 pm – blog back up and working. Rain coming horizontal, at times.

Almost noon, almost an inch. About to go off line, hopefully only temporarily. Road cleared at 11:46 am.

11:15 am – Trees down, just north of Lucia, blocking both lanes. Highway temporarily closed to give CT the opportunity to remove the trees. Winds picking up. Getting more serious.

10:00 am – CHP no longer reporting a slide at Andrew Molera. Take a look at the expected rain map, which has the burn areas marked. It is a doozie. Here:

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=MTR&day=1&img=5

8:45 am – CHP reports a rock slide just south of Andrew Molera. CT should be there by now. I’m sure there will be other slides up and down the coast by this evening. If traveling highway one, BE CAREFUL. 

Additionally, there is talk of extending the Flash Flood Watch. Lots of tourists in Big Sur Valley this weekend, according to friends there. Hopefully, tourists will be encouraged to leave early, if necessary. Stay alert, everyone.

Also, around noon, wordpress, the host of my blog, will be making some code changes. They promise only a brief interruption. But you know how that goes!

8:00 am – 1/2 inch, so far. Significant wind, but not as bad as it can get.

6:00 am – rain and wind. Don’t know what time the rain started, but it was present when I woke this am. Rain totals throughout the day. NOAA forecast discussion says that the radar models predict as much as 3/4 of an inch an hour at times during this storm, which may stall over us through Tuesday. Oh, boy.

Flooding Photos

TODAY”S FORECAST: NOAA is predicting .38 inch of rain between 4 pm and 10 pm today for the Big Sur area. See 2008 Winter Conditions to the right for the new NOAA forecast map, just sent by Charles Bell of NWS in Monterey.

These photos of the Grange and Debbie’s house and yard were sent to me this morning. What a mess, huh?

Read Debbie’s Story under Storm Watch, 11/2/08, below, or click on post to the right.

The Grange and Parking Lot

Debbie’s Yard. This was a garden that was on the Hidden Valley Garden Tour. Under all that mud is a lawn, now buried.

Debbie’s Porch and Front Door

This is what Debbie came home to, after fleeing to Glen Oaks Saturday night. Sunday morning, Don Case brought her the Sunday paper, and offered his help. This, the man in the photo with Buddha, who lost everything in the Basin Fire. Don, if you read this, you epitomize the Big Sur Spirit!

Oh, Debbie! Thank you so much for sharing your story and your photographs. They are both just so heart-wrenching. I look at these, and remember all the wonderful 4th of July parties we had out here in this garden, in the sun belt! I’ll have to locate one of my photos from then (on the other computer?) and post so people can see how beautiful it is, when not covered in mud!

And here is later in the day: “Blaze to the Rescue!”

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Storm Watch, 11/2/08

DEBBIE’S STORY:

Got a call from Debbie this morning. She lives at Juan Higuera Creek and the Big Sur River, for those who do not know her. She ran out of her house last night with nothing but the clothes on her back. One car was up on higher ground, but if she opened the door to the Explorer, the water would have rushed in. So she set out on foot, through mud up almost to her thighs, with Molly, her younger yellow lab walking with her up to the highway, by flashlight. Billy, the older yellow lab, had to be left behind, as he cannot walk well, and is WAY to big to carry.

“It all happened so fast,” she said.

BUT Blaze Engineering came to the rescue — Tevye Morgenrath and Dave Martin — with their BIG equipment. Tevye got Billy into the bucket of the loader, and drove him up to Glen Oaks, where Debbie was!! Her house is covered in mud, the porch is pretty much gone, but she and the dogs are okay, thanks to Blaze, who also redirected the water away from her house and back to the Big Sur River. What a story! She will send me photos tomorrow. She wishes she got one of Billy in the loader’s bucket!

And all of us who love Debbie send BIG hugs and kisses to Blaze Engineering’s Tevye and Dave for helping our friend during this winter storm event! Thanks, so much!!

And here’s a photo from this morning, just for grins.  You’ve all seen my view to the north hundreds of times, during the fire. Here’s one looking south. That is Los Burros or Willow Creek top in the back.

9:30 AM Road conditions: As reported earlier this morning, the road is open again. However, as we all know, it could close again at any time, particularly at night, when Cal-Trans no longer patrols. For the next four months, use caution while traveling Highway One, particularly between Andrew Molera and Mill Creek, and particularly at night!

Juan Higuera Creek: Joyce Duffy just called with an “on the ground” report that the culvert and small bridge on JH Creek just before you get to The Grange is clogged and the river is now flowing OVER the bridge, through the parking lot of the Grange. Debbie is out, with her animals, thank god. Joyce just walked this area, and is going to higher ground herself.

Storm conditions: Reports from the north, and conditions here on the ridge, seem to indicate this storm is over, with a rainfall of 2.4 inches, or 2.9 for the season. 

Predictions are that another storm will be arriving Monday night. I have not heard about the strength or timing of this storm, yet.

Interesting to compare rain totals down here at different elevations. At Highlands Peak, at Big Creek Reserve, the 24-hour total is 1.78″ at an elevation of 2490′; at Plaskett Ridge top the 24-hour total is 2.4″ (mine doesn’t do 1/100ths) at an elevation of 3272′ (okay, the rain gauge itself is probably only at 3200′, but I don’t have an altimeter); Mining Ridge is 2.91″ at an elevation of 4790′. (Mining Ridge is at the confluence of Big Creek and Devil’s Peak, north of Cone Peak). Fascinating the relationship between elevation and rainfall. Well, at least to me.

8:30 AM – Just had a serious cloud burst, here. Probably 1/10 of an inch in 10 minutes. Is letting up somewhat, now.

7:30 AM This “unofficial” report:

“Just got off the phone with Tom at Lucia. He says CalTrans has been by this morning and road is open now. Just lots of rocks down but, not any slides to speak of. The road at the [Coast Gallery] had some big rocks come down there according to Danny.” Reported by Keith. Thanks for this, Keith.

6:30 AM – 2.3 inches for this Saturday/Sunday storm. Season total: 2.8

5:30 AM Still raining. Will get rain totals when it is light and I can see the gauge. CHP reports below on closure. As I understand it, MM 46 is in the area around Sycamore Canyon Rd:

 

ADDITIONAL DETAILS 3:57AM NB CLOSURE AT BIG SUR 3:55AM SB CLOSURE AT LIMKILN 3:55AM NORTH END CLOSURE AT MM 46 RESPONDING OFFICERS STATUS 3:55AM CHP Unit On Scene 

Storm Watch, 11/1/08

HEADS UP, EVERYONE!

jack is reporting: Posted by Jack

Mud is flowing onto Hwy 1 between Fernwood and Pfeiffer Big Sur State Park.
Redwood Creek is flowing over the culvert bridge/driveway inside the park.

9 PM Highway One reported closed 4 miles south of Lucia. Cal-Trans reports:   [IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA] 

    IS CLOSED FROM 7.9 MI NORTH OF GORDA TO 6.2 MI NORTH OF PFEIFFER BURNS
STATE PARK (MONTEREY CO) AT 2053 HRS ON 11/1/08 – DUE TO ROCKS IN THE ROADWAY – 
MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE 

 I am on back-up power, so won’t be reporting until tomorrow am, but Dave Allen reports that the rains are significant in Carmel, about an hour ago, which means it will be arriving here shortly. PLEASE, stay safe, everyone!

6:30 PM – we are just over 1/2 an inch at the moment, around .6. So far, so good. However, I note roadway flooding is being reported in the NB lane of Highway 17 up in Santa Cruz County at the moment. Hope that is not indicative of what is coming our way. According to the NOAA precipitation map (see 2008 Winter Conditions link) Ben Lomand has received 3.4 inches in the last 24 hours. Mining Ridge (closest to me of the permanent reporting gauges) is showing .67, consistent with what I am reporting.

1/2 inch by 4:30 PM

Only 1/4 inch by 2 PM.

11:15 AM – Rain has begun, a little early. What better way to spend a Saturday than watching the rain gauge? Oh, and you might note, I added a new link category, “2008 Winter Conditions” to the blog roll, and turned off some of the fire-related ones. Here you will find links to Cal-Trans, CHP, Weather, and surfire2008. While I will post important information from all sites here, you may also want to check yourself. The fire-related links be back next fire season. For the next four months or so, 2008 Winter Conditions will be much more important for us to stay abreast. I will add more helpful links, as I find them.

9:30 AM – Winds picking up. Everything is either covered, closed, and/or battened down. Rain gauge emptied. I am ready. Here’s the national weather report:

DAY ONE...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT 
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH 1-3 INCHES
OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WETTER LOCATIONS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS OF MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS IMMINENT.

7:30 AM – No rain overnight. Season total = .50 inches. Will report throughout the day.

Storm Watch, 10/31/08

6:00 PM – Rain totals: .25 for storm; .50 for season. Tomorrow afternoon should be interesting, and I will report on rain activity as necessary.

NOON – Slight rain, on and off, nothing to speak of or even measure. Will continue to provide rain totals three times a day on the days when I am home, for those interested.

7:30 AM -Rain gauge total this am is .25 inches here at 3272′ in the Santa Lucia Mountains for the storm, .50 inches for the season. Very mild indeed. Still some wind, but pretty quiet.

Sorry about the fonts and spacing. Can’t seem to get it to change, line up, or do anything I want it to do. The information is there, it is just hard to read.

ICS being instituted by Frank Pinney, who reports at 7:OO am, including the weather predictions for our area:

ICS Core Group:
 
Below is the National Weather Service 
prognostication for today and the weekend.  
Note the potential for 3” of rain in the Santa
Lucia Mtns coincides with the number spoken at
the SEAT meeting Wed night by the forecaster. 
(Total up to 4” for the system)
 
Let me know by email now if you will be 
available Saturday for consultation by 
phone or email or both.  
 
I do not expect that we will need to convene 
at the MAF during this event, and it will be 
an opportunity to observe how information 
about the storm conditions gets to us and 
can be used to correlate what’s happening on 
the ground. 
 
Anyone have rain gauge figures storm-to-date 
from your location?
 
The period of most likely storm activity 
appears to be Sat PM into the evening.  I have
some of your cell # but not all.  Please send 
the number if you have one and we don’t 
regularly contact each other by cell.
 
Thanks for your diligence.  We will try to keep
everyone up to date on developments.
 
I take comfort in my Mom’s counsel, “Our worst
fears never happen.”
 
Frank
 
 
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
444 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2008
 
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:57 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE 
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE 
DISTRICT LAST EVENING BUT ONLY DROPPED LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST FROM ABOUT 
SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. KMUX IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING RESPECTABLE REFLECTIVITY 
RATES OF UP TO 40 DBZ WITH THIS RAIN BAND...
ALTHOUGH THESE REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALOFT...
AROUND 7000-8000 FEET AGL. AFTER THIS IMPULSE 
MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR A DECREASING SHOWER 
TREND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DECREASING AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY IS 
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM...AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO END AT THAT TIME 
AS CURRENT WIND SPEEDS
ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE.
 
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT 
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DUE IN ON SATURDAY. 
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO 
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
AREAS (I.E. SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES).
 
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER
COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR SINCE 
THURSDAY. THE MODELS
AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON TIMING...INCREASING 
LIGHT WARM-ADVECTION
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF 
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SF BAY 
AREA...AND LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE 
FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 
THE COASTAL HILLS...TO
AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA LUCIA 
MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
THAT MUCH RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY A CAUSE FOR 
CONCERN IN THE BURN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY IF THE BULK OF IT FALLS 
WITHIN A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVER THE BURN AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND 
MONTEREY COUNTIES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF 
SATURDAY.
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. 
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY AND WINDS ADVISORIES MAY BE 
NECESSARY.
 
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL 
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER 
OFF ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN
PICK UP MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
 SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY 
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY.