Rain Report, Saturday, 3/5/16

7:30 pm – This is the report my son, Brendon Shave, gathered about the car over the side on Hermitage RD.

“Ok so I went down the drive and got info for you, they aren’t staying here as I thought. Gergen tourist drove up our drive and at 2/10 of a mile they attempted a turn around and got the car stuck in the mud on the edge, they got out to look at the situation and after exiting the car it rolled over the side down 60ft (according to CHP) they then walked to Lucia and called for help. Ambulance, CHP, Rangers and fire brigade (according to Chinon at Lucia) all showed up. Cambria towing decided to come in the morning. Currently there is caution tape tied between trees at the site. The culvert where the Almo rental car went over is flooding at current and if the car is in that culvert it is certainly a wash, excuse the pun. Both German passengers in their late 20’s early 30’s are safe and dry. Fire brigade (I was told climbed down to the car and retrieved all the personal belongings for the tourist couple and hey will ride win CHP to Monterey and stay the night in a hotel. That pretty much sums it up. Good night.”

Pebble Beach

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6:30 pm – Okay, people … Roads closed, trees down, wires down, etc. all over the SLV area and other mountainous parts of Santa Cruz. Mud, debris, etc. in a couple areas of SLV area. In Big Sur, tree down near Soberanos, tourists 60 feet down in a ravine, 2/10ths of a mile up the Hermitage RD. It’s going to get worse tonight, so stay off Highway if at all possible tonight. Don’t make our BSVFB and others have to come out in this to rescue you!

2:20 pm – it’s pouring now, peeps.

9:30 am – It’s a coming down now. Not real heavy, but steady. This graphic carries a warning for us Big Sur folk and our ribbon of asphalt to the rest of the world.

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7:00 am – So far, I have received 1.04″ since Friday morning. Looking for a busy, wet day today. NOAA has decreased the 6 day total of Friday to Thursday down from 8.51″ to 8.1″ – not much of a decrease, still a pretty healthy amount. This is their graphic this morning.

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Weather Update, 2/17/16

IMPACTS

*Impact 1 (Rain) :

· Widespread rainfall can be expected with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially along the coastal ranges. The most notable impact will be potential for a wet afternoon/evening commute on Wednesday.

*Impact 2 (Winds):

· South to southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph can be expected in elevations near and above 1000 feet by Wednesday afternoon.

· These wind speeds may result in tree damage that could lead to isolated power outages.

· Difficult driving conditions are also likely in the higher elevations, especially for high profile vehicles and those pulling trailers/campers.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:

Wind Advisory for the Following Areas:

North Bay Mountains
East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range
Santa Cruz Mountains
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest
Mountains of San Benito County and Interior Monterey County, including Pinnacles National Park

· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

· Moderate to High for the timing and location of the greatest impact.

TIMING

· Wind speeds will increase over the region Wednesday morning and peak in the afternoon and early evening.

· Widespread rainfall will mainly impact the region Wednesday afternoon and evening with lingering showers continuing into Thursday.

LOCATIONS

· Widespread rainfall will impact the entire region on Wednesday.

· The heaviest rainfall will likely occur over the coastal ranges were isolated locations may pick up as much as 1.25” through Thursday night.

· The strongest wind speeds will impact locations near and above 1000 feet in elevations while locally breezy conditions are expected in lower elevations, especially near the coast.

Weather Summary

A Pacific storm system will approach the region on Wednesday and spread rainfall across the entire region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wind speeds will also increase Wednesday morning, peaking during the afternoon and early evening, ahead of a cold frontal passage. A few thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening with lingering showers likely through Thursday morning. A secondary, weak weather system passing to the north on Friday will bring another chance of light rain to the North Bay. However, no major impacts are expected at this time from this system.

BTW,this blog is in the finals for MC Weekley’s “best of …” Contest and voting is going on now.

 

“El Nino slow to start, fast to finish…”

… So says a respected climatologist from the JPL in Pasadena.

In January, well above normal amounts of rain fell in most Central Coast locations. My records indicate 1/31/98 rain totals were 41.7″ and 1/31/16 rain totals were 25.75″.

John Lindsey, SLO forecaster writes: “By the end of January, most of the local weather forecasters, including myself, felt confident that the wet El Niño gravy train pattern would continue.

However — in the heart of our rainfall season, no less — the weather pattern reverted to one we’ve seen over the last four years of drought, when a strong ridge of high pressure settled over the West Coast, forcing the storm track northward. Consequently, this condition created persistent Santa Lucia (offshore) winds, near or record-breaking warmth, and dry and clear skies despite this year’s record-breaking El Niño event….

Heavy rains may be on the way, and here’s why.

“It’s looking likely that we will whiplash from a weather pattern that resembles July to one that looks like March,” William Patzert, a respected climatologist with Caltech’s NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, told me over the phone Friday.

Dr. Patzert suggests the current El Niño might still be too big for Southern California, and the inland areas to receive heavy rain. The 1997-98 very strong El Niño event peaked in November and by February 1998 had shrunk to a much smaller size along the Eastern Pacific. This year’s El Niño event peaked much later — in fact, just last month.

His hypothesis states that the southern branch of the jet stream will shift southward later this month and take a position over Southern California. That will allow the storm door to swing open for the later part of February, March and into April for the central and southern parts of the state. Historically, the 1997-98 El Niño, along with the 1982-83 winter, produced its heaviest rainfall in the February-through-March timeframe, as well. Both of these El Niños were late bloomers.”

Critical  words in these statements are “may” and “hypothetical.” Weather forecasting, while substantially improved, is still as much of an art as it is a science. John Lindsey predicts the next bout of rain to begin Wednesday night. Another forecaster I hear predicts Thursday and Friday. Whenever it starts, while the summer-like weather has been great, it’s time for February to deliver.

 

Snow storm, 1/31/16

Big, big flakes started about 8:15 this am. Soft, drifting 1/2 dollar size flakes, some silver dollar-sized. If it continues and sticks, I will have photos. Right now, I need to build a fire, have a second cup of coffee and watch with amazement. Later, I will have a 1/31/98 journal entry to compare to today’s totals (hint: we are seriously behind the 1998 totals.) Oh, my, this is so beautiful! BTW, Cone Peak shots are unlikely, as we are shrouded in the clouds.

From SLO Meterologist: “Total rainfall amounts will range between 0.75 and 1.75 inches with higher amounts in the Santa Lucia Mountains. Snow levels will fall as colder air filters into California. Snowfall will range between 12 and 18 inches for the southern Sierra & 6 and10 inches across the Tehachapi Range.

Snow levels will continue to drop to around 2,500 and 3,000 feet by tonight with a chance for some snow accumulation to reach down into the higher mountains of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.”

Rainfall Amounts, 1/30/16

As of 7 am, I have received .54″ since midnight. NOAA Monterey says:

“SYNOPSIS…LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TODAY AS THE
TAIL END OF A SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY…WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST
AND IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS….

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 3:25 AM PST SATURDAY…KMUX RADAR IS
CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE…AWAITING PARTS TO REPAIR IT. EARLIEST
IT COULD BE REPAIRED WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON.”

Warm, clear weather … Then another round

I have been out of town for a while, but keeping an eye on the storms and road conditions. I, like many of you, will be preparing for the upcoming storm, restocking, getting laundry done and dried with the sun to make it easier, and catching up on making up for my absence to my dogs. Blogging is likely to be sporadic this week as a result.

It looks to be a warmer, clear week, with another storm building. Meterologist John Lindsey has this to say:  “Current longer-range forecast models suggest a stormy weather pattern starting Saturday afternoon and continuing through the following week. The models are indicating a particularly strong low-pressure system developing off the California Coast on Sunday with moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph) southeasterly winds, heavy rain and high seas. These are long-range models; consequently, the timing and intensity of this predicted storm will probably change as the week progresses.”

 

Highway One Road Conditions, 1/19/16

9:30 pm – Hard Closure to last until midnight – 2 am, according to a local who drove there and asked.

HIGHWAY ONE TO CLOSE AT 6:00 PM – Hard Closure at Fernwood to clear tree and fix power lines. Stay tuned to CHP site.

4:30 pm – PGE, Our Great ever-present BSVFD, and CT dealing with wires down across both lanes near Fernwood. Power to be turned back on when resolved.

there is also a slide at MM 44.30, per CHP, which is approximately 1/2.mile south of Ventana. There are other unreported slides, according to my son who just got back from town.

REMEMBER, CAL-TRANSCDOES NOT PATROL AFTER DARK, and with so much rain from this storm (5″ in many places on the South Coast) these slides are only just beginning! Even tomorrow, when there will be a break in the rain, slides will be occurring. BE SAFE OUT THERE!

Weather and Road Report, 1/19/16

I am out of town, but just checked with neighbor who reports 4″ of rain this storm, and sustained 50 mph winds.

My son, Brendon just went to town, north, and reports 4 slides blocking the NB lanes. He sent me a video … I am trying to see if I can upload, but WP is saying it is not a supported file type. I’ll keep trying. The one he sent is just south of Deetjen’s.

Okay, here is the url to YouTube:

Atmospheric River

It has been poring all night. By 8:30 pm, my weather station read 1.99″, and by 9:30 pm, it read 2.37″ and it is still raining cats and dogs – as my weather station likes to Point out.

At the 6:30, I am up to 1.25″ – much more than expected!

And as of 3:30 pm, I have 3/4″ for today, the Solstice.

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