Those of you who have been following this blog for a year or more have noticed that twice a year I update my links to the right. I change the focus of the links from weather conditions to fire conditions and vice a versa. It is incredibly early to change from weather to fire, but given what has been happening, I have added back in many of my fire links. But also given that I am an opptomist still hoping for more rain, I have left in some of the more important weather links. So, for a while, at least, we will have a hybrid of links to choose from. If you have a favorite link, please feel free to send it along.
Tag: weather
Oscars Sunday Weather Report, South Coast Version
From my SLO Weathercaster:
An impressive (549-dm) upper-level low pressure system iforecast to move over the Central Coast tonight. This system is currently producing a few scattered rain showers this morning, however, convective showers will become heavier by tonight.
This system will draw cold air from the upper levels of the atmosphere and create an unstable atmosphere with the a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight.
These thunderstorms can create gusty winds, hail and periods of heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch.
However, if your location is near a thunderstorm, higher amounts of precipitation could develop.
Today’s maximum temperatures will range from the high 50s to the low 60s. Snow levels are expected to drop to near 4,500 feet in the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains with up to nine inches of new snow above 5,000 feet.
Storm Report, 2/6/15
10:00 – there’s the first inch. Will be interesting to see what it is in the am. And here is the current radar. Not sure if WordPress will insert at the top or bottom. Sorry. Works differently on an iPad than a computer.
9:15 – okay, it is now officially remaining cats and dogs per my weather station. Up to .75″ now.
9:00 pm – Already another .22″ in the last 1/2 hour. This is fun – the wind, not so much.
8:30 pm – while rain began at 4:47 pm down here, amidst the wind event that started last night. It got up to 41 mph this afternoon, and it is still blowing. But the rain is the issue. By 8 pm, I still only had, I think, about .15″ but within the next 1/2 hour, was up to .46″ and hit a high rain rate of over 2 and a 1/4″ an hour. Wind is so loud, I can’t even hear the rain, ranging from 20-30 mph, currently. Santa Cruz appears to be having all sorts of weather-related road issues. How is it where you are? What are your rain totals? Share in the comment section below.
December Storm Graphics
At 4:55 pm, the rain rate was 2.95″/ hour … At 5:15 it was 3.13″ an hour. Hopefully, just a short-lived cell.whew!
From Dave Allen of Pacific Valley School
Here is another graphic
I know I haven’t seen the sun up here in a week! More this afternoon and evening, then a break (although I have to point out that every so called “break” predicted thus far, it has rained, at least up here), another storm on Monday/Tuesday and then another on Thursday.
Weather Report, Dec. 2, 2014, Plaskett Top, Big Sur
Noon – wind gusts up to 45 mph. Steady, usually above 20.
7:15am – the joyous sound of the filling of our creeks, streams, rivers and waterfall. Up here, I have received .50″ but it is raining at the rate of .74″/hour, just a few minutes ago, currently only .24″ so if this keeps up, that total is going to rapidly climb! The maximum wind gusts were 24 mph at 4 am.
To get an idea of how fast it is coming down, in the 15 mins since I wrote this, and while trying to upload it, it is up to .65″ holy, moley! And a new high rate of 1.84″/hour at 7:30! Yowsa!
The Storm Continues
7:00 am – What happened to the break in the weather expected for today, before the BIG one rolls in tomorrow? It was raining at the rate of 1/2″ an hour just moments ago. Maybe an isolated shower? Was going to try to slip out … But …
And now. 20 minutes later, I have received .12″
Storms, debris flow, and rock slides
I want rain, but 9″?
Just received this notice from the National Weather Service. Please pass this along to anyone you know living near a possible debris flow along Sycamore Canyon Road. Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving.
Good morning,
This heads-up briefing is targeted at public safety and emergency response personnel in the Big Sur area of Monterey County – to heighten awareness of potential impacts from debris flow/slides in Sycamore Canyon near the Pfeiffer Burn Scar.
Please contact our office at 831-656-1717 any time – a forecaster available 24 hours a day for immediate support issues.
OVERVIEW
Strong Pacific storms will bring periods of rainfall to the area beginning by Saturday noontime and persisting through Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times and will result in the most significant rainfall of the season to date.
TIMING
Rain begins by noontime Saturday and continues through Tuesday/Wednesday. The time period of greatest concern for heavy rain will be Saturday afternoon-Sunday. A secondary period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday.
Wind will increase overnight Saturday and into Sunday.
Flooding/Slides: Threat will increase as rain accumulations increase with greatest risks during and immediately following the heaviest rainfall.
DETAILS
Rain: Rainfall totals from Saturday through Wednesday will range from 2 to 4 inches with up to 9 inches or more expected in the higher mountains.
Wind: Southwest winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH at the coast and up to 60 MPH in the higher mountains. Potential for trees and downed power lines.
Flooding and Slides: Flooding of small streams as well as low lying, and poorly drained areas is expected. Debris flow potential from Pfeiffer Burn Scar area in Sycamore Canyon during and following periods of most intense rainfall is high.
Rockfalls can be expected in the area and along Highway 1 due to the ground becoming wet and the heavy rain. Thresholds that we will use for debris flow concern:
0.70 inches in 15 minutes
0.90 inches in 1 hour
1.50 inches in 3 hours
2.00 inches in 6 hours
—
Logan Johnson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service
San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CA
http://www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
After Thanksgiving Storms
Looks like it could be a serious. Start preparing now. (I know I said I was taking the rest of the week off … I am, I really am, but thought we should all be aware of this ASAP.)
From my SLO meteorologist:
“A low pressure system will approach the Central Coast on Saturday
with increasing southerly winds and clouds. Periods of rain will
start Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning.
A much stronger storm system will move over San Luis Obispo County
Sunday evening into Monday with moderate gale-force to fresh gale
-force (32- to 46-mph) southerly winds late Sunday into Monday.
Periods of heavy rain is expected to start Sunday evening and
continue through Monday. Rain showers are expected to continue
into Tuesday/Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts could range between
4 and 6 inches in the Santa Lucia mountains above San Simeon,
Cambria and Cayucos. Other San Luis Obispo locations are expected
to range between 1 and 3 inches.”
Here is John’s graphic:
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Here is NOAA Monterey’s current report:
“RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA (Ed. Note – that’s us) COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.
ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT…UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.”
Could be a fun 4-5 days.
Frost possible
Upcoming weather
From my SLO weather person:
“The associated cold front is forecast to drop southward through
the Bay Area by late Wednesday, then slide down to Big Sur early
Thursday morning.
This cold front may be just strong enough produce a few light
rain showers in San Luis Obispo County by late Thursday morning.
Given the mild nature of the system, snow levels are expected
to remain above 6,000 feet with 3 to 5 inches of new snow possible
across the northern and central Sierra.
This cold front will be followed by strong to gale-force (25- to
38-mph) northwesterly winds along the coastline and clearing
skies. Another round of Santa Lucia winds will develop during
the night and morning hours Friday into Saturday.
The long-range models are suggesting a wet-weather pattern for
San Luis Obispo County for the middle and latter part of next
week (Nov. 18 through 21).”
And here is the prediction from NOAA, Monterey:
“TWO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE FIRST WILL BE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE SECOND EVENT SHOULD BE LATE NEXT MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FIRST EVENT DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/2″ LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS WITH GENERALLY .2″-.4″ AROUND SF BAY. THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS A POSSIBLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY OCCUR. STILL QUITE A FEW DAYS DOWN THE ROAD, HOWEVER SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE BRINGING HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF RAIN.”
Let’s hope they are right … We could certainly use more rain.