Tag: weather

Upcoming rain predictions

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN MOVING THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND MIDWEEK AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOT MAKE IT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO ABOUT THE MONTEREY PENINSULA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER…THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE QUITE WELL IN PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE GEM MODEL…ON THE OTHER HAND…INDICATES MUCH MORE MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH AND THIS MODEL SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES CONSIDERABLY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EXPECTATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM…BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS WE DRAW NEARER TO THE PRECIP EVENT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE MOSTLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS…ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THESE TOTALS ARE BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR IF THE 00Z GEM SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY.

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Rain Tonight?

From NOAA this afternoon:

“AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS…AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY…GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT…THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. MEANWHILE…INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.”

“The Sky was as clear as a window one morning. It was so the next morning, and the next, and on every morning that followed until it was hard to remember how rain felt, or how a field looked, green, and moist with life so that a naked foot sank into it. All the things that grew paused in their growing, leaves curled, and each creature turned his back on the sun.” (Beryl Markham, West with the Night.)

NOAA is now predicting 07/100ths of an inch of rain all the way down to Big Sur Wednesday night into Thursday. I covered my cement, just in case. It won’t ease our drought, but at least we might remember how rain felt.

(Barbara, I really will get this lovely book back to you soon.)

Could it be?

Got this weather forecast in my box, but not holding my breath, especially this far south.

“A cold front will produce rain showers in Northern California on
Wednesday into Thursday. A few rain showers are expected to reach
as far south has Monterey Bay on Thursday.”

El Niño Pedictions

From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:

The model predictions of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6), most likely transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

And on another note:

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Rain, 3/29/14

Final rain total for storm – .73″ – not bad. Hopefully, even more from the next storm.

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9:00 pm – .36″ thus far for the storm; a dismal 3.99″ for March, and 13.24 for the season. Horrible totals. The only good news is that the barometer is slowly falling, so maybe we can expect more tonight, AND, there are 2 more storms on tap for this upcoming week.

7:00 pm – up to 1/4″ from the last two hours, let’s hope it continues! But save some for Cambria, which needs it for more than I do!

5:00 pm – I have been watching FB reports from friends from the Peninsula on down through the Big Sur Valley area to the Hermitage reporting on rain start times. I kept wondering when it would get to me. It usually only takes 1-2 hours after hitting Monterey, depending on how fast moving it is. Tonight, it got to my mountain just at 5 pm, or almost 4 hours after Big Sur saw her first drops. Slow moving storm, clearly. It is just a light rain at this point, but all is wet, and I fed the cats on the wood box under the eves so they and their food could stay dry. I’ll keep an eye on the road and other conditions. If you hear thunder, add a comment with time and place, if you can.

BTW, the last storm I received .78″ of rain, nice. A lot more than most, even my neighbors on Alms Ridge, who only saw .5″. Let’s hope we get a similar amount from this one.

What is ahead in the Weather World

Nothing like last week’s weather challenges, but two more rain events are predicted.

DISCUSSION…AS OF 09:03 AM PST WEDNESDAY…PATCHY FOG REMAINS PRESENT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM HALF MOON BAY DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA INLAND TO SALINAS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES THIS MORNING…DO EXPECT FOG TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT, STRONGER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. [Ed. note – tonight for Big Sur] HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DESPITE PWAT VALUES ANALYZED IN THE 1.10″ TO 1.25″ RANGE ACROSS THE REGION…UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FURTHER SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY CAN EXPECT AROUND
0.50″ TO 0.75″ WITH THIS SYSTEM…ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 1″ ARE STILL POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH…COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP 0.25″ TO 0.50″ OF RAINFALL WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10″.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR AREA. 850 MB LEVELS WILL SEE NICE WARMING AND AT THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS SLATED FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BC COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY FOR THE FAR NORTH BAY AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EVENT WILL BE SHORT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE DECENT OUT OF THIS WITH A NICE AR WITH PW AMOUNTS AGAIN OVER 1.25″ STRETCHING ALL OF THE WAY WEST OF HAWAII POINTING DIRECTLY AT THE COAST. COULD EASILY PICK UP MORE THAN 1″ FOR THE NORTH BAY OUT OF THIS WITH 1/4″-1/3″ AROUND SF BAY. AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH TO THE SOUTH WITH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ONLY LOOKING AT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR NEXT WEEK…AFTER THE EVENT ENDING ON SUNDAY, ALL SIGNS POINT TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL IN THE PACIFIC. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

As for me, I’m off to pick up fresh fruits and veggies, get a couple gallons of gas for my back-up generator, and get some propane. Pretty well stocked, otherwise. Enjoy the weather break.

Get ready, folks! 7-8″ possible

8:45 pm – home safe. Neighbor cut through large downed oak so I could get home. The wind is singing to me, beginning to sound like it might turn into a chorus, soon. Should be a fun night for those of us who are ready and hunkered down. I am.

MOVING ONTO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION…FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON…MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN…WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER…THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR THE BIG SUR COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAIN ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN…WITH THE BIG SUR COAST RECEIVING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW ISOLATED
AREAS ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAYNIGHT.

Hey, Big Sur! What’s next?

This looks like fun!

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In the mean time, there are blue skies in Monterey.

Be safe, always, but particularly tonight, tomorrow, and Saturday. Keep an eye out for flooding.

Great News! Rain on the way!

Maybe fire season will finally end?

From NOAA’s forecast discussion:

DISCUSSION…AS OF 09:05 AM PST SUNDAY…THE MARINE LAYER LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY INTO TUESDAY…AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY PROMISE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (ESPECIALLY FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR) AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR DETAILS ON THESE UPCOMING STORMS!

THE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT … THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH. GREATER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SEND A SECOND IMPULSE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND WILL TRIGGER MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND…GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AS THE SOILS BECOME SATURATED.

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS AND FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ON FRIDAY WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.
STAY TUNED!

Don Harlan ( the original road warrior)’s theory of Big Sur’s rain patterns may be proving itself once again. He always said if we got little rain in December, watch out in March!

Here is NOAA’s graph of the rain we can expect.

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And here is the radar pic sent to me by Dave Allen.

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Quite the series headed our way. Be prepared and be safe!

By the way, there is a new weather station at Pacific Valley School. The link is PV weather station I’ll be adding this to my weather links to the right. It is quite detailed.

Upcoming Week

While I completely LOVED the rain, and like everyone, I am praying for more, today was a nice change from the last four days. Sunny, gorgeous, summer-like – including looking down at fog on the coast. Our drought is the lead story on the CBS Evening News tonight, while the East and South are preparing for another horrific snow storm. Here, this week is expected to be warm and sunny. I’d like to get away from my computer, away from the Internet, and start working in a dreadfully, woefully neglected garden. So, if you don’t hear from me, check outside in the dirt!

And just for grins … Something I found on FB. 😉

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