At 9:30 this evening there were reports of rain in Santa Cruz, and accidents at the Summit of 17. If true, it is arriving early, but a very welcome guest that we’d like to stick around!
Tag: weather
BSK, checking in
Super Bowl Sunday, around noon, my systems went wacky. They are still not up to normal … even for up here in the wilderness, so I am writing from Cambria. While I have and had 4-5 bars, everything was connected, up and “running” – the phone didn’t ring, and people who tried to call were directed straight to voicemail, which then did not show up for 18 hours. I couldn’t get email, twitter, FB, OR TV. Wonderfully isolated from the world with my critters, a fire, and a book.
I have had a fire going constantly since Sunday morning – or was it Saturday? Time has not mattered. It stood still for me. I stayed warm and comfortable. This morning, heavy frost covered everything, causing the dogs to slip and slide as they escaped thru the front door. I had to go out in it to keep an eye on my blind dog as his now-absent scents could not guide him, but I stoked up the fire when we came back inside.
The photo below was taken Monday morning when SOME the clouds cleared for a few moments. Yes, snow at the higher elevations although I heard from a north-facing neighbor at 3000′ that they had snow. Not me.
If I don’t post tomorrow, know I am preparing for the next rounds of showers (varying reports on those) and keeping warm, puzzled by my systems.
Upcoming rain chances
Fire Weather, 2014
As we head into the three day MLK Birthday weekend …
Some fresh Red Flags hoisted for Monterey and San Benito counties including the Monterey Ranger District of the Los Padres.
Big Sur RAWS was 84 degrees with 6% RH this afternoon…drier than during the Pfeiffer Fire.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_foreca…=mtr&version=0
PLEASE be careful, all our weekend guests. If you see any campfires outside the developed campgrounds of Plaskett, Kirk, Pfeiffer State Park, Riverside Campgrounds, Big Sur Campgrounds, or Fernwood. Please report it!
Drought
There is an interesting article in today’s Herald about California’s drought. It has broken scores of 160-year-old records. You can find the whole article here: ridiculously resilient ridge
Here are just a few quotes.
“…meteorologists have fixed their attention on the scientific phenomenon they say is to blame for the emerging drought: a vast zone of high pressure in the atmosphere off the West Coast, nearly four miles high and 2,000 miles long, so stubborn that one researcher has dubbed it the ‘Ridiculously Resilient Ridge.'”
“The current high-pressure ridge is even stronger and more persistent than a similar ridge that parked over the Pacific Ocean during the 1976-77 drought, one of the driest in the 20th century.”
“Last year was the driest calendar year in recorded history in California in most cities, with records going back 160 years. The first snowpack reading in the Sierra Nevada earlier this month found a snowpack of just 20 percent of normal.”
The Herald article took me to a California weather blog that is full of interesting information, weather blog including this graphic of the high pressure ridge that parked itself over the Pacific Ocean last year and the first month of this year.
Don’t get me wrong, this weather is better than summer – no bugs! BUT … and this is a big BUT … I am a native Californian, and I reach SS age this year. I’ve seen a lot of California weather. Nothing like this. I have foregone planting new bare root fruit trees and roses. I am debating a vegetable garden this year. My spring is still producing well, but if all the aquifers that must feed it are at 20% of normal, how can my spring be far behind?
Critical Fire Weather
NWS has issued red flag watches and warnings for much of California due to record high temperatures, low RH recovery, and high winds. Be cautious.
Fire Restrictions Take Effect in Los Padres National Forest
GOLETA, CA, January 10, 2014…Due to extremely dry vegetation and an increasing fire danger, Los Padres National Forest officials today announced that Level III fire restrictions will go into effect beginning tomorrow, January 11, 2014. The following restrictions will be rigorously enforced until this Forest Order expires:
Wood and charcoal fires are prohibited in all areas of Los Padres National Forest except for designated Campfire Use sites; however persons with a valid California Campfire Permit are allowed to use portable stoves and lanterns using gas, jellied petroleum or pressurized liquid fuel outside of designated Campfire Use Sites. California Campfire Permits are available for free download from the Los Padres National Forest website (http://www.fs.usda.gov/lpnf). You must clear all flammable material for a distance of 10 feet in all directions from your camp stove, have a shovel available, and ensure that a responsible person attends the stove at all times when it is in use.
More freezing temps
Overview (from NOAA)
Another round of cold temperatures are expected for Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. Lows will drop to the upper teen to 20s for inland locations with most coastal areas in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
TIMING
10 PM tonight until 9 AM Tuesday Morning.
LOCATIONS
All locations except for the city of San Francisco.
IMPACTS
*Hazards:
Freeze warning in effect.
*Impact 1 (most significant) :
High confidence for another round of cold temperatures.
Increased risk for hypothermia due to freezing temperatures for those living outdoors, including animals.
Sensitive plants can be damaged or killed if left unprotected
*Impact 2 (if necessary):
Freezing conditions will lead to areas of slick roads.
Santa Lucia Weather Report
It was 10:30 at night. I turned off the TV in preparation for bed, and heard some unusual sounds. I looked at the windows – nothing. I got up and l looked out the front door – rain. I checked my weather station – 38 degrees with wind chill down to 33. Inside, I let the fire die down, as it was over 80.
All together, I got .44″ of the life-source, but no snow. Winds got up to 42 mph. At 9:30 am, it is 33 outside, wind chill bringing it down to 27. Blue skies peek through the clouds. The road is muddy and slick, and trees are probably down due to the winds. I have our yearly ladies holiday luncheon, but with road conditions, doesn’t look like I’ll risk it.
Snow expected
FXUS66 KMTR 062239
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PST FRI DEC 6 2013
.DISCUSSION…AS OF 02:30 PM PST FRIDAY…
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST. PRECIPITATION IS STILL
MOSTLY CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HOWEVER SNOW IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN MENDOCINO COUNTY WHERE COLD AIR IS TRAPPED.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AROUND THE URBAN BAY AREA WITH AROUND A HALF INCH AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS…DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS 2000 FEET AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF TWO TO
FOUR INCHES IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OVER THE NORTH BAY HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES INTO MID SUNDAY MORNING WHEN COLDER AIR
ARRIVES WHICH COULD INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND SIX
INCHES OF SNOW. TRAVEL IN AREAS WITH SNOW OR RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
BECOME DIFFICULT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THOSE
OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. AS THE SKIES CLEAR IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER TEMPERATURES COULD END UP
PLUMMETING. HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE SOLUTION OF SOME COOLING OVER
SONOMA AND NAPA BUT IT COULD END UP BEING EVEN COLDER IN ISOLATED
VALLEYS IF THE CLOUDS ARE FAST TO CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
VERY COLD AIR WILL RETURN POST FRONT LEADING TO AT LEAST TWO MORE
MORNINGS BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY REBOUND AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST. IT IS QUICK TO PROGRESS INLAND HOWEVER LEADING TO
A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
.TNGT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY…SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
…EAST BAY HILLS…AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS
Weather Update – Baby its cold outside!
UPDATE – from NOAA:
IN ADDITION…LOWER ELEVATION SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION…AROUND THE 3000 FOOT RANGE AS THE PRECIPITATION ENTERS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS MAY EVEN PICK UP 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2500 FEET AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE SNOWFALL…BUT ONLY MEDIUM TO MEDIUM LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE OTHER LOCATIONS…AS THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT.
*****************************************************************************************
Last night it got down to 26 degrees, at 11am, it was only
36 outside, 56, inside. Wanted to put off the fire in my wood
stove, but won’t be able to much longer, I am afraid. Time for the
down comforter, for sure! By noon, the fire raised the inside
temperature to 61! From my SLO Co weather forecaster: A vigorous
1,011 millibar low pressure system will slide through Northern
California on Friday. The associated cold front is forecast to pass
over San Luis Obispo County Friday night into Saturday morning with
rain showers. This storm system is coming from the high latitudes,
and with cold air already in place, snow levels will dip below
2,000 feet by Saturday morning. A dusting of snow is certainly
possible across the higher mountains of San Luis Obispo County.
Total rainfall amounts will range between 0.15 and 0.25 inches or
nearly one inch of snow above 2,000 feet. From NOAA in Monterey
Bay: ANOTHER COLD AND CLEAR MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
DOMINATED THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING FELL INTO THE 20S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED VALLEYS IN NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES FELL INTO THE TEENS…WITH MOODY
CANYON IN SOUTHERN SAN BENITO COUNTY ACTUALLY FALLING TO AN
ASTONISHING 9 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. ANOTHER CHILLY
DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA…AS THE COLD AIRMASS IS NOT FORECAST
TO BUDGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S…SIMILAR TO THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR MANY
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. … THE BEST BET FOR SNOW IN OUR DISTRICT WILL
BE IN BIG SUR. HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SANTA LUCIAS SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.