8:00 pm- the snow started at 7:52 p,. Temperature is 36.2 degrees and dropping faster than I can keep up. Photos in the morning. Accumulating nicely, which means I’ve got to get in the trailer, before the deck is too slippery for me to walk on!

7:30 pm – 39.2 dropping fast now.

7:00 pm – 40.0 and dropping. Okay, I agree with the weather forecasters. If there is precipitation tonight, it WILL be snow. Better get my boots out for the morning!

6:00 pm – 41.9 degrees and dropping. Chilly night in store!

5:30 pm – temperature beginning to drop, although it never got above 47 degrees today. It is now 43.6. Chilly

4:15 pm – latest NOAA report: “TONIGHT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP LOCALLY DOWN TO 1000 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN GENERAL THOUGH…SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 2500 FEET. MODELS EARLIER THIS MORNING DROPPED THE VORT ALONG THE COAST…WEST OF THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER…RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY IS NOW INDC THAT THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE PRECIP…AND THE 18Z NAM12 NOW DRIVES THE SYSTEM INLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW…THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND CAN BE COVERED BY NOWCASTS AS NEEDED.”

3:15 pm – Nexrad is currently tracking this storm more to our north.

2:15 pm – weather changing. Clouds coming in. Don’t know how much we will get in Big Sur, particularly the southern region, but I will be watching the clouds and the nexrad this afternoon. This is what the Nexrad shows:

1:30 pm – well blue skies all around me, chilly, but clear. Where’s the snow I was promised?

9:00 am – heavy hail this morning around 5:30 am. Short lasting, but much left on my deck. Very cold here. Another 1/4 inch of rain/hail. At the moment, there is some sun and blue sky peeking out from the condensation cloud up here. It is quite cold. Snow expected today. Whoopee! I’ll keep you posted.

NOAA reports: WOULD ALSO EXPECT EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOS PADRES ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TURNS OUT TO BE A SLOWER THAN FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO UNDER 3000 FEET…EVEN UNDER 250[0] FEET IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. THESE LOW FREEZING LEVELS (COMBINE WITH CAPE UP TO 600 J/KG) WILL ALSO HELP TO LIKELY BRING MANY REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER…WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR AREAS…SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LOS PADRES COULD GET WELL MORE THAN A DUSTING (POSSIBLY 4″ IN LOCAL SPOTS)

8:05 pm – new cell coming into Big Sur momentarily. Looks like it is carrying heavy rain, but is a small cell, so should pass quickly.

7:30 pm – significant rain has begun to fall up here. I wonder if it will turn to snow later tonight? Will keep all readers posted, until I turn in for the night.

9:00 am – I received 3/4 of an inch, Big Sur Valley reports 1/2 inch.

NOAA reports: “…LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT RAINFALL WILL ADD TO THE WARM ADVECTION RAINS FROM LAST NIGHT….THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG JET MAX CURRENTLY NOSING INTO NORCAL. …EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. [A] STRONGER SYSTEM SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME…A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE S ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW IS STILL THE BIG QUESTION MARK. CURRENT MODELS DROP THE LOW RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER…IF IT SHIFTS WESTWARD A LITTLE LESS PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE CWA. ONE THING THAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THE INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER AIR STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL DO TWO THINGS…LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER 2500-3000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.”

8:45 pm – steady drizzle for the last hour or so. Will be measurable in the morning, when I will update.

Fog/ low-level clouds from the highway, at about 200 ft, all the way to my elevation at 3272 ft. Can’t see if it is higher than that, as the entire route was all socked in. Drizzle/light rain started about 5:45 pm, and continues. Was a gorgeous day, before this set in around 5 pm.

NOAA discussion had this to say: “FOR TONIGHT…EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LINGER MOSTLY FROM SJC NORTHWARD. HOWEVER…DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MAYBE A LITTLE OVER OPTIMISTIC WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP…BUT THE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE TODAY/S PRECIP VERY WELL. TUESDAY WILL BE A REAL TRANSITION DAY AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS INTO NORCAL DURING THE DAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ADDED LIFT FROM THE JET WILL HELP TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE DISTRICT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH 0.25-0.5 INCHES LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HILLS. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.”

While there is a chance of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, the greater chance is for Wednesday, although much of that storm may stay out to sea. This from NOAA’s discussion:

“THE FAVORED TRACK KEEPS THE LOW TO OUR WEST SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCING EVENT. WHAT WILL BE MORE NOTABLE ARE THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT…. IN THE COLDEST SCENARIOS DROP SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 1500 FEET. CURRENT PACKAGE FAVORS MORE OF THE -12C THINKING OFF THE ECMWF WHICH COULD STILL DROP LEVELS CLOSE TO 2000 FEET IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS SO LOW…ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 50S AND WITH 925MB WINDS EXPECTED OVER 20 KT…IT COULD FEEL DOWNRIGHT COLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.”

Oh, boy. More snow.

Yesterday’s meeting was the longest yet (4 and 1/2 hours), with four power point presentations and a SRO crowd. It has been a long time since I’ve seen a meeting as well-attended as this one was. It was great to see such community involvement in action. The tone of the meeting was one of sharing information and points of view.

The first presentation, was given by Kelly O’Brien on the new Monterey County Wildfire Community Protection Plan. Kelly did a wonderful job of informing us about what it is, what it does, and how. The plan is complete, and is available for viewing here: firesafemonterey Please read Kelly’s interpretation and presentation about our MCCWPP and the work she and many others are doing to make collaboration possible, as well as sustain this as a “living” document open to change as change occurs. Her comment is below in the comment section.

All agencies hoped to sign on in support of this plan, have, and all required to sign, have done so, save one. The Monterey County Board of Supervisors has not yet agreed to this plan. The reason given is that the Sierra Club has lodged an objection to the plan’s desire to permit homeowner to create the 100 ft. defensible space recommended by all fire fighting agencies with a minimum of regulatory impediments and the maintenance of the “big box fire” breaks.

Lawyers for the Ventana Chapter of the Sierra Club sent a 7 page letter to the Board of Supervisors, which is too lengthy to repeat here, but concludes thusly:
The letter does not state that it will bring litigation against the county, but that is clearly the concern, given the nature of the letter.

However, by far the most controversial subject was the creation of a new Wilderness Area from the eastern portion of the Andrew Molera State Park. This has been introduced by Bill Monning, State Assemblymember, as AB 2074, who was present and seriously listening to the concerns expressed by the Big Sur Community. Tom Hopkins, president of the Ventana Wilderness Alliance was present and he and Gordon prepared the power point presentation on behalf of the VWA.

Michael Caplin on behalf of the Coast Property Owner’s Association prepared a power point presentation which outlined concerns over the loss of a portion of the big box fire breaks. Michael’s presentation covered specifically the Andrew Molera Wilderness area designation, but it also referenced the wilderness expansions which have occured since the creation of the Ventana Wilderness Area in 1968 by President Johnson, which has more than doubled in area since it’s creation 42 years ago.

This is a long and complex subject, but one I think my readers who live and work here should be interested in. Toward that end, I plan on doing a more in depth presentation of the information on the wilderness designation expansion, hopefully, in the next few weeks.

The final power point presentation was on the USFS Firescape plan, presented by Sherry Tune, District Ranger of the Monterey District of the LPNF, and Jeff Kwazny, Resource Officer.

This firescape plan is just in the formation stages and there will be ample opportunity for public input.

First, beginning at 10 am, at the Conference Center at the Big Sur Lodge, a quarterly Big Sur Multi-Agency Advisory Council Meeting will be held. It has a number of important issues on the agenda, posted previously. I’ll try to get up a post this afternoon about the meeting, if at all possible, otherwise tomorrow.

Second, a series of storms is progged to come our way next week. The first storm, on Sunday, is not predicted to get this far south, the second one on Monday could bring a quarter inch of rain in most areas. The third, and most powerful one is due to arrive on Wednesday. Sounds like an interesting week ahead in store for us.

Just a reminder, tomorrow night, Wednesday the 24th, you can meet Sheriff’s candidate Fred Garcia at 6 pm at the Conference Center at the Big Sur Lodge. As is usual, please park down below and walk up.