Month: February 2009

Hazardous warning, 2/4

8:00 pm – Winds just picked up suddenly, which usually means rain is not far behind. If I am still awake when the rain starts, I will provide a start time. If I am asleep? All reporting is off. NOAA is saying after 10 pm. I am predicting with some degree of accuracy that I will be asleep by then, but then I’ve been known to be wrong before!!

This from NOAA:

.DAY ONE…WEDNESDAY NIGHT

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH OUT THE NIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

Also, NOAA said: “PERSONS NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST

FORECASTS ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.”

Storms, update 2/4

Looks like a series of small storms, per NOAA. Tonight through part of Thursday, Thursday night through Friday, Sunday, and Tuesday. None are predicted to bring more than an inch of rain into our mountains, and only two of the four hold that possibility. The others are considerably less. Thunderstorms are still predicted for Thursday. Of course, we will all want to be prepared for problems on the road, particularly in the burn areas.

Currently, at 8 am, I have a few high clouds, some wind, and sunshine. The fog on the coast seems to have lifted.

Rain coming, thank goodness

I’ll be on weather watch starting tomorrow night, although all predictions have down-graded this next storm, and no debris flows are anticipated with the one we watched coming on the horizon before the sunset – light clouds, nothing significant.

But watching the fog move in was like watching a wave approach. As I got closer to home, driving the coast the whole way, I watched the fog creep toward me, finally hugging the coast as I settled in up here on my mountain top. Weather can be so fascinating to watch.

Mystery

Mystery, originally uploaded by wind_dancer.

I expect to be busy the next few days, so don’t expect to be blogging until the storm rolls in on Wednesday night. Instead, I leave you with another one of my photos from my Enchanted Forest series.

My driveway takes on another life in the fog … one of fairies, elves, and trolls. It is a mysterious forest that watches me as a guardian might.

Californians are furious, and rightly so

Today, California stopped paying some of its bills. I am one of the “bills” it stopped paying. Newspapers throughout the state are fighting back with the written word, and editorials are ending up on the front page. (San Jose Mercury, for one)

It is time to do away with the 2/3rds majority vote, particularly as California’s minority party uses it to hold all of us hostage. Only two other states require a “super majority” – Rhode Island and Arizona. It works for them, but not for us. 

Enough is enough.

Weather Watch

Three more days of gorgeous weather, then Wednesday night, rain moves into the area. Thunderstorms possible on Thursday. This is what the NOAA forecast discussion had to say:

THINGS WILL FINALLY CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-ADVERTISED LOW
 OUT IN THE PACIFIC TAKES AIM ON OUR COAST. THIS LOW WILL START TO
 TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS A CHUNK OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM A TROUGH
 AROUND 140W. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST
 SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OUR CWA AND THE LOX CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
 THEN LIFT THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD SF BAY WHILE THE HIGHEST
 PW VALUES ARE DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH.
 ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
 FIRST LOW AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF MORE MOISTURE GOING INTO
 THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIFTED VALUES DOWN AS
 LOW AS MINUS 2 WHICH WOULD DEFINITELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
 THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF SF BAY.
 SHOWERS WILL START TO END FIRST IN THE NW AREAS FRIDAY EVENING AND
 THEN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING.

MORE THAN TWO INCHES POSSIBLE FOR SPOTS IN THE LOS PADRES. AGAIN…

THIS IS STILL FIVE DAYS OUT AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR

FOR A QPF FORECAST THAT FAR OUT IS QUITE HIGH.

HOWEVER DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS…LOW

SPREAD IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES…AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN

CONSISTENCY THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE FOR A FORECAST

OUT THAT FAR.