2:00 pm – IT IS SNOWING!! YAY!! If there is any accumulation, I will take and post a photo. I did take a few just a few minutes ago, and if a viewer can see the snow, I will post it here. It is really beginning to come down, now. Flakes are getting bigger. Sweet!

7 am – A bit of snow here, the ground is white. BUT, my windows are frozen shut, there is ice on the INSIDE of the windows, the door knob is also frozen shut. The sun is shining, though, so I should thaw out some shortly. Gotta get back under the down while I try to warm it up a few degrees in here. Woke to 34 degrees INSIDE. Half hour later, I have it up to 40 degrees. Brrr… Just checked and at 7:30 am, Chew’s Ridge indicates it is 18 degrees.

Don’t forget, today is the Big Sur Chantrelle Festival – proceeds to benefit local photographer Rachel Short, paralyzed in a car accident on Halloween. Go team Rachel!

NOAA’s discussion: “AS OF 4:10 AM PST SATURDAY…SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE OCEAN…MOVING TO THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVES OVER THE COAST THEY HAVE DROPPED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WE HAVE HAD SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 400 FEET IN SAN FRANCISCO…SNOW SHOWERS IN FELTON…A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN CARMEL VALLEY…AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE FORECAST OFFICE IN MONTEREY. LOOKING AT THE CHP PAGE…THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TODAY… EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHICH WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH THE OCEAN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S…LEADING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 20S. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

Debbie Reed sent me these, with the comment that the Big Sur River is rising fast this afternoon.

1:35 pm – hail covered the ground, and then stopped.

11:30 am – update: significant winds and rain. Rain gauge fixed and the antenna fixed for cellular internet, at least for now. Storm has dropped over 2 inches here, so far. NOAA issued this: “HAVE CHANGED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 500 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM SANTA CRUZ
SOUTH FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MID MORNING.”

Up here, rain started around 9 pm last night. Rain gauge had been toppled last storm, so not sure how much I got, but wouldn’t be surprised to see that it was over 1 and 1/2 inches. I’ll have to check near-by sources. No snow, and warmer last night than the night before, but looking to see what today brings.

LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST BAY HILLS SOUTH…AND SOUTH OF THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE CHANGED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 500 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL ZONES FROM SANTA CRUZ SOUTH FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT MODELS ARE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. THE NAM12 DROPS 500 MB TEMPS SAT MORNING TO -37C AT 500 MB…-17 TO -18C AT 700 MB…-6 TO -7C AT 850 MB. TIMEHEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDC PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS IS AN EXTREMELY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THIS AREA.

6:00 pm – and here is the NOAA forecast afternoon update:

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE NORTHBAY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO 100 TO 400 OVER THE NORTH BAY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FALL TO SEA LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.

WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS SNOW WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR ELEVATED AREAS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHBAY MOUNTAIN ZONES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SANTA CRUZ, EAST BAY MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THEREFORE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL COME INTO EFFECT FOR THOSE MOUNTAIN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SEA LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND YES SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN SAN FRANCISCO. THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED MEASURABLE SNOW IN QUITE SOME TIME HOWEVER THIS IS A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE EXPERIENCED IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. … HOWEVER, A FEW HUNDRED FEET IN ELEVATION AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE.

7:30 am – The entire mountain top is covered white this morning, but not with snow, with frost. Quite significant, too. It is bright and sunny and calm, but that will change.

Today’s NOAA forecast is again interesting. Basically, higher elevations could be facing blizzard conditions this afternoon/evening, depending on where one is. Here is some of what NOAA said this morning:

LOOK FOR RAIN TO SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE FIRST MAIN BAND FORECAST TO GO THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY SEVERAL HOURS LATER. RAINFALL COULD EVEN BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING … (AND MORE THAN 2/3″ POSSIBLE FOR LOCAL RANGES). FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW UP TO 2000 FEET WITH SIMPLY SNOW FORECAST FOR SPOTS ABOVE THAT. SNOW FLAKES WILL LIKELY START TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS SOUTH OF SF BAY EVERYTHING HINGES ON HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEVELS WILL START BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET BUT WILL DROP CLOSER TO 1000 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. … MANY SPOTS OVER 2500 FEET WILL LIKELY PICK UP MORE THAN 6″ OF SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE DURATION WITH LOCALLY UP TO FOOT POSSIBLE….CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WITH A MIX DOWN TO 500 FEET ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BRING THE MIX DOWN LOCALLY TO SEA LEVEL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS AND WILL GIVE US THE BEST SHOT AT SNOW HITTING THE OCEAN. UNFORTUNATELY FOR FAN OF WINTER WEATHER…IT`S NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE BELOW 500 FEET.

WINDS… SOME LOCAL GUSTS AROUND THE 40 MPH MARK. BIGGER CONCERN IS IF THE WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES (OR EVEN LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS). THE SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER 2000 FEET WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THIS IMPACT ON LOCAL ROADS. WILL LET DAY CREW LOOK AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THEY WANT TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ANY OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.

What a shock that was – to find pockets of snow still remaining from the snow storm last weekend up here on Top o’ the World. I did not take photos when I arrived, as I had much to unload, and excited dogs to greet. The huge winds that came through when I was gone, knocked the cell signal booster off kilter, and so my signal strength is not quite good enough for photo uploads, but will try to rectify that before the snow comes.

Temps are so low here, that ANY precipitation will result in snow. The NOAA forecast for this afternoon is very interesting, and quite long. Rather than produce it, click on this link: NOAA discussion

Also, would LOVE to receive your snow photos this weekend, and have a snow photo day post of how it looks ALL over Big Sur – or San Jose, or wherever you are in California. If all the forecasters are right (and many are saying this will be quite the wide-spread event) then it could be very beautiful!

Got to Buellton last night after the funeral and dinner. Almost home. Plenty of time to stop to stock up on food and supplies for the coming event. Here is what NOAA said a couple hours ago (i.e. 5 am):

“MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON COLD TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MODELS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVERALL. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THINKING IS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO AT LEAST 1000 FEET OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH BAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -5 CELSIUS. STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF SIGNIFICANCE. IN FACT FOR ALL THE ATTENTION ON LOW SNOW LEVELS OF LATE IT`LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT LEVEL WHERE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.”

I will be hunkering down for the weekend, gratefully, as I am pretty tired, but hopefully, I will get some winter wonderland shots for you to enjoy. Another Reader’s Digest version:

ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE STATE SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 1000 FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A RECORD COLD AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE VERY LOW ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 500 FEET AND SEA LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BECOME LIKELY BELOW 1000 FEET ON FRIDAY.

I was checking the NOAA forecast discussion this morning, and noted what was called, “The Crosby Weather Event.” That reminded me that at one point, the Pebble Beach AT&T Golf Tournament, used to be called the Crosby, and I surmised that this is where the term was coined.

We in the Monterey area have always said, if the AT&T is in town, so will be the rain showers. This year, that proved untrue, but it is usually the case. It is from this that the term, “Crosby weather” came into being.

From an article in the SF Chron: “From the very beginning the Crosby golf tournament was part moving cocktail party, part sporting event. Bing Crosby’s pal Phil Harris, an entertainer known for his tippling, set the tone, announcing to all that he was the pro from the ‘Jack Daniels Country Club.'” …

The festivities began on the Monterey Peninsula in 1947. They ended with the tournament played at Pebble Beach in February 1985. Later that year, Bing’s widow, Kathryn Crosby, pulled the plug, refusing to take on a corporate title sponsor.

“So many things have changed. For example, the whole notion of ‘Crosby weather,’ the idea that, yes, it might rain — even snow, as it did in 1962 — but the party wasn’t stopping. ‘Where else can you have the greatest golfers play the greatest courses in the worst conditions?” Crosby used to say gleefully.'”

The Crosby weather event occurred in 1962, January 21st. There was wide-spread snow, including 1 and 1/2 inches at SFO. Here is what NOAA had to say this am about “Crosby weather”:

ESSENTIALLY THIS WOULD BE A RECORD BREAKING EVENT AND BY DEFINITION THESE TYPE OF THINGS ARE REALLY HARD TO FORECAST WITH MUCH LEAD TIME…LET ALONE DAYS AHEAD. SO ITS REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS. HOWEVER AS WAS NOTED LAST NIGHT THERE ARE NOT MANY WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW EVENTS OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS. I LOOKED AGAIN AT THE JAN 21 1962 EVENT AND REALIZED THIS WAS THE STORM THAT COINED THE TERM “CROSBY WEATHER”. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT KSFO MEASURED 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THAT DATE AS WELL…SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW. FOR THE RECORD THATS THE LARGEST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT FOR KSFO WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1927 AT THAT SITE.

4:00 pm NOAA forecast update: “THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES OVER THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. ON SAT MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. DURING THIS TIME 850 TEMPS ARE DOWN TO -7C…700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -17 TO -18C… THICKNESSES BELOW 520 DM…AND 500 MB TEMPS PER THE ECMWF AS COLD AS
-39C! IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN SNOW LEVELS COULD VERY WELL DROP TO SEA LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THIS WOULD BE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR (OR ANY TIME DURING THE WINTER) AND IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OFF HAVEN`T PUT IT INTO THE GRIDS. HOWEVER…IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. KEEP TUNED!”

Linda Parker so graciously sent me this photo of Big Sur’s backcountry, taken Saturday. It serves as a great lead-in for this next very meterologically interesting system, which will bring more snow, starting as early as Thursday, and I will be back home by then.

And here is a part of NOAA’s discussion about the next one. Woohoo, could be quite a ride.

“FORECAST BY THURSDAY STARTS TO GET METEOROLOGICALLY INTERESTING. GOING BACK TO LAST WEEK THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD COLD AIR MASS SLIDING DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT.

ANYWAY THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF DEVELOP SHOWERY PRECIP AS EARLY AS 18Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. LATEST 06Z NAM SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5 CELSIUS BY 18Z THURSDAY IN THE NORTH BAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 1000 FEET. NO WAY TO HONE IN DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT INITIAL BOUNDARY OF SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY…MAYBE AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN AFTER THE PRECIP HAS SHUT OFF. HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ONE OR TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE BETWEEN 519-523 DM (DEPENDING ON MODEL USED) WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -4 TO -7 CELSIUS RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA. HAVE CURRENTLY PUT SNOW LEVELS NO LOWER THAN 1000 FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. GRIDS AND TEXT FORECAST WILL SHOW SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY ABOVE THIS LEVEL. NO MATTER WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS COLD AND UNSETTLED TIME FRAME FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ITS JUST TOO HARD TO NAIL DOWN ANY DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.”

Finally, for those following my personal saga, my mom passed into the light at 12:21 this morning. I had the honor of being with her, and sitting with the body while arrangements for her pronouncement and transportation were made. A large crowd is expected at her funeral tomorrow, and then I will head home to my beloved coastal mountains.

I already sent this to WildBigSur, but just in case, I wanted to get a wide audience – y’all know how I feel about dogs. I am also forwarding to Martha Diehl, another dog person, who can post to the Palo Colorado Canyon list.

Hi, Im new to the area.. I heard there is a website for Big Sur locals for updates and news. I cant find friends of palo colorado’s website/blog. I was hoping you could direct me to the right website or post something on yours
I lost my dog Shawnee on Friday during the storm.. I live in Palo Colorado Canyon. She’s a female, 1 years old, black and white. If you have any information or anywhere I can go to post, it is greatly appreciated.

I attached a picture of her.

Thanks for your time,
Joy
bethanyjoy421@hotmail.com

Soaring Starkey sent me these photos taken yesterday at her place on Coast Ridge at 2800 ft.

Here are some taken yesterday by Sandy Krenkle from Los Burros: