Category: 2013-2014 Weather

Flash Flood Watch now thru Saturday Morning for Big Sur

SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
139 PM PST FRI FEB 28 2014

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF CALIFORNIA…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS… SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST.

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR AT SITES IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS HAVE REACHED SEVERAL INCHES, WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOW EXCEEDING 3 INCHES. CONTINUED RAINFALL OF SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ENGENDER FLASH FLOODING IN SMALL CREEKS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN SATURATED…STEEPER TERRAIN.

* OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE PFEIFFER FIRE BURN SCAR AND SYCAMORE CANYON AND OTHER LOCAL DRAINAGES WITHIN THE BURN SCAR PERIMETER. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING DEBRIS FLOWS AND SLIDES IN THIS AREA. EXTRA CAUTION AND PREPAREDNESS IS RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND OR LOCALIZED DEBRIS FLOWS AND SLOPE INSTABILITY. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

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Storm Report, 2/28/14

10:00 pm – I’m signing off for the evening. Thus far, I recorded 2.44″ since midnight. Winds are up a bit, again, but nothing like last night. Stay warm, stay dry, and sleep well.

And this is what we have to look forward to tomorrow – at least predicted!

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2:00 pm – thunder and lightning just started. Wind howling again, and up to almost 2″ thus far? Rain rate 2.67″/hour. Whoa, Nellie! Up to 5.14″/hour! Unbelievable! Here comes that 7-8″

20140228-133553.jpgHere is the most recent satellite. Compare it to the last one.

Noon – no rain at the moment, winds calming down, gusts only to 10 mph. Whew! It is time for a nap!

11:00 am – 1.5″ Del Venturi Rd in Ft Hunter Liggett closed. Road still open to Cambria, so far.

20140228-104933.jpg10:00 am – 1.2″, sustained winds of 30 mph. Water spouts off Point Sur per NWS. Lots of fun! 38 degrees and dropping!

9:00 am – road conditions – slide JNO of Garrapata Bridge and Traffic Hazard at Soberanes Point of unknown type. I’m willing to get there are other, unreported as yet problems.

8:00am – Winds gusted to 71 mph this am. Rain totals sitting edging up on 8/10ths, dogs went out during a break in the rain, only to be caught in a down pour. Lid blew off the wood box outside, taking a railing with it, despite being secured. Raining cats and dogs at the moment, at the rate of 2″ per hour. Big, big tree blocking Plaskett per my neighbor, and that’s just the first one. Missy and Dakota got into a dog fight with blood and a torn ear. So, how is your morning going? Add your storm stories this am.20140228-103956.jpg

Get ready, folks! 7-8″ possible

8:45 pm – home safe. Neighbor cut through large downed oak so I could get home. The wind is singing to me, beginning to sound like it might turn into a chorus, soon. Should be a fun night for those of us who are ready and hunkered down. I am.

MOVING ONTO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION…FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON…MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN…WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER…THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR THE BIG SUR COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAIN ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN…WITH THE BIG SUR COAST RECEIVING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW ISOLATED
AREAS ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAYNIGHT.

BSMAAC meeting postponed

Dear MAAC members,
Based on the storm forecast of heavy winds and up to 6” of rain expected on the Big Sur coast late tonight into tomorrow morning, the MAAC meeting has been cancelled for Friday, Feb. 28th and rescheduled for Friday, March 7th at 10:00 am. Thank you for your understanding and I will look forward to seeing you next week.

Kathleen Lee
Chief of Staff for
Supervisor Dave Potter
(831) 647-7755

Now that the meeting I had come off the hill for is canceled, my blood test done, I think I’m going to make a run for it, with a stop for groceries and gas, propane and lunch in Big Sur! Smart to get back up my hill before the big one hits! Bigsurkate

Rain is here!

4:00 – This is Dave Allen’s take on these storms. Wind advisory start now!

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Sweet! Look what’s coming:

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1:30 – wind advisory just issued.

1:00 pm – in town. Rained on and off most of the way here, but hasn’t been any rain in town for last hour. At Jeep dealer, as it won’t go into Low Range, even though all of that was serviced a month ago! I’m not a happy camper, as it is impossible to come DOWN Plaskett in the mud without 4x4low. Did make it this am because I left early, it hadn’t rained but .2″ so not too muddy. Only slid 3 times!!

Sycamore Canyon closed to all but residents. PG & E warning about possible outages due to high winds and downed trees. Treat all downed wires as live, but you all know the drill. Be safe everyone!

7:30 am – It arrived at 7:25, earlier than expected. I was planning on getting out of here around 10, now, I may want to make that a bit earlier! It is currently raining at the rate of .22″ per hour. Watch for updates through out the day, but I will be traveling north, so updates will be sporadic.

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Great News! Rain on the way!

Maybe fire season will finally end?

From NOAA’s forecast discussion:

DISCUSSION…AS OF 09:05 AM PST SUNDAY…THE MARINE LAYER LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY INTO TUESDAY…AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH MORE DRY WEATHER.

BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY PROMISE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (ESPECIALLY FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR) AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR DETAILS ON THESE UPCOMING STORMS!

THE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT … THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS SET TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH. GREATER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SEND A SECOND IMPULSE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND WILL TRIGGER MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND…GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AS THE SOILS BECOME SATURATED.

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS AND FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ON FRIDAY WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.
STAY TUNED!

Don Harlan ( the original road warrior)’s theory of Big Sur’s rain patterns may be proving itself once again. He always said if we got little rain in December, watch out in March!

Here is NOAA’s graph of the rain we can expect.

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And here is the radar pic sent to me by Dave Allen.

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Quite the series headed our way. Be prepared and be safe!

By the way, there is a new weather station at Pacific Valley School. The link is PV weather station I’ll be adding this to my weather links to the right. It is quite detailed.

Road Conditions, Slides, and Sundry Sunday Musings

10:00 pm – from CHP website:

Details 00440 9:20 PM Trfc Collision-No Inj 3700 MM1 SR1 1/2 JNO JULIA PF BURNS STATE PARK Monterey

Detail Information
9:50 PM 3 [8] 1039 27-S6 AT OFC WITH CAL TRANS INFO
9:42 PM 2 [6] VEH RHS PER RP
9:26 PM 1 [2] 1125 LARGE BOULDERS 1/2 MI JNO JULIA PFEIFFER BURNS TATE PARK AROUND THE CORNER // 2 VEH TC – RP LEFT VEH’S HERE
Unit Information
9:32 PM 3 Unit Assigned
9:32 PM 2 Unit Enroute
9:33 PM 1 Unit Cleared

8:49 pm – wow! .67″ of rain per hour is the rate. It’s gone down to .39″

3:30 pm – I have no clue what this means, and no details noted. I do know we only have a Willow Springs CT, no Willow Glen! I do know that this is ONE of the places electronic signs are put when there are slides or other road conditions, but that’s all I know that might be applicable.

Details 00242 2:40 PM Request CalTrans Notify Willow Glen BIG SUR WILLOW GLEN C/T

10:00 am – NOAA discussion for today:

THIS ONE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PUSH HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MOST INTENSE RAIN RATES ARE BEHIND US AND THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE MODERATE IN
INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES IN THE HILLS…AND PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO 3INCHES ALONG SOUTHWEST-FACING COASTAL SLOPES.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. BUT FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. IN FACT…DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY RIGHT ON THROUGH TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

Good day to make a 15-bean soup with left-over turkey. Putting off making a fire as cooking all day, and the housekeeping I plan on for today, too – forget the floor with 5 dogs tracking in mud all day, but other things need doing.

7:30 am – (oh my, my dogs let me sleep in!) Checking in with the CHP website, it appears the two slides from last night are cleared, and Cal-Trans is working at another – “Old Faithful” let loose. Interesting, since it is draped. Here is what it says:

Detail Information
7:45 AM 4 [10] A27-014 JNO MM 41 LRG BOULDERS PARTIAL 1125 IN NB LANE / CALTRANS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE THEM BUT NO SHOULDER IN AREA
6:29 AM 3 [7] 1039 ROGER BARNES – THEY WERE TURNED ON LAST NIGHT AND ALL OF THEM BELOW PLUS SOME ADDITIONAL ONES TURNED ON
6:25 AM 2 [5] RESIDENT HAS PUSHED MOST OO RDWAY / STILL PARTIAL 1125
6:16 AM 1 [1] ,,,, LRG ROCK SLIDE 1125 NB LANE COMPLETELY AND SB LANE PARTIALLY

Okay, water is boiling for coffee, so enjoy your day, stay safe and DRIVE SLOWLY!

Slide on Highway 1 near JP Burns SP in Big Sur

A locals perspective -Jon Knight drove from Big Creek to Partington Cove and saw no significant slides – rocks, yes. Slides, no. But there is now a second slide near Limekiln. This is what the CHP website says:

[31] 2ND SLIDE / SR1 AT LIMEKILN / VEHES CAN PASS OVER THE RUBBLE / FLARES OUT / ONE WAY TRAFFIC CONTROL
9:06 PM 12 [30] ORIG SLIDE SR1/JSO JULIA PFEIFFER BURNS / NB LANE IMPASSABLE / SB LANE OKAY / FLARES PUT OUT
9:05 PM 11 [29] B27-062 1039 ROGER BARNES / TURNED ON PORTABLE CMS SIGNS SB 1 JSO RIO RD/NB 1 AT WILLOW SPRINGS/ AND NB 1 AT HEARST CASTLE TO WARN OF ROCKSLIDES AHEAD
8:38 PM 10 [27] B27-062 DETERIMED LIMELKIN SLIDE MORE IMPORTANT / VEHS CAN SLOWLY PASS OVER RUBBLE / WILL DO ONE WAY TRAFFIC CONTROL
8:22 PM 9 [25] NB LANE COMPLETELY BLOCKED / SB LANE OPEN
7:50 PM 8 [21] [Notification] [CHP]-BRUCE OHAGEN CAL TRANS L/L ADVS THIS IS AT MM 36 WILL NOT RESP DUE TO SAFETY BUT CAN RESP TOMORROW AT 0600 HRS
7:01 PM 7 [19] S1 CTC CT REQ BARICADES FOR SLIDE, L1 NOTIFIED, S1 AVAIL BY CELL FOR UPDATES, NEEDS TO KNOW IF FULL RDWY OR 1 LANE ONLY
Note that there is no MM noted, yet, so this slide could be anywhere within 5 miles of JP Burns, especially if reported by tourists.

Details 00349 6:24 PM Mud/Dirt/Rock Cabrillo Hwy SR 1 AT JULIA PFEIFFER BURNS STATE PARK Monterey

Detail Information
6:50 PM 6 [17] THEY MAY BE ABLE TO RESPOND IF CLOSE ENUF
6:49 PM 5 [16] 1039 RAY ORTEGA / WHEN UNIT GOES 97 ADVS WHAT MM
6:48 PM 4 [15] 1039 SLO CHP W/INFO
6:42 PM 3 [11] 27-S1 SINCE CT WILL NOT RESPOND, ASK FOR ETA IN THE MORNING FOR WHEN THEY WILL RESPOND
6:41 PM 2 [10] 27-S1 ATIVATE CMS SIGNS FOR SR1 CLOSED OR DELAYED DUE TO MUDSLIDES NB AND SB
6:26 PM 1 [3] MAJORITY IN NB LN
Unit Information
6:35 PM 2 Unit Assigned
6:35 PM 1 Unit Enroute