What is ahead in the Weather World

Nothing like last week’s weather challenges, but two more rain events are predicted.

DISCUSSION…AS OF 09:03 AM PST WEDNESDAY…PATCHY FOG REMAINS PRESENT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM HALF MOON BAY DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA INLAND TO SALINAS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES THIS MORNING…DO EXPECT FOG TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT, STRONGER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. [Ed. note – tonight for Big Sur] HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DESPITE PWAT VALUES ANALYZED IN THE 1.10″ TO 1.25″ RANGE ACROSS THE REGION…UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FURTHER SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY CAN EXPECT AROUND
0.50″ TO 0.75″ WITH THIS SYSTEM…ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 1″ ARE STILL POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH…COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP 0.25″ TO 0.50″ OF RAINFALL WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10″.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR AREA. 850 MB LEVELS WILL SEE NICE WARMING AND AT THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS SLATED FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BC COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY FOR THE FAR NORTH BAY AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EVENT WILL BE SHORT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE DECENT OUT OF THIS WITH A NICE AR WITH PW AMOUNTS AGAIN OVER 1.25″ STRETCHING ALL OF THE WAY WEST OF HAWAII POINTING DIRECTLY AT THE COAST. COULD EASILY PICK UP MORE THAN 1″ FOR THE NORTH BAY OUT OF THIS WITH 1/4″-1/3″ AROUND SF BAY. AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH TO THE SOUTH WITH MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ONLY LOOKING AT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR NEXT WEEK…AFTER THE EVENT ENDING ON SUNDAY, ALL SIGNS POINT TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL IN THE PACIFIC. HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

As for me, I’m off to pick up fresh fruits and veggies, get a couple gallons of gas for my back-up generator, and get some propane. Pretty well stocked, otherwise. Enjoy the weather break.

Proposed Fraking Legislation in California

California 2014 Bills: Last Friday, February 21st, was the deadline for introducing 2014 bills in the California Legislature. Over 1,900 bills have been introduced this year and here is one of proposed new laws:

SB 1132 (Mitchell & Leno) – to amend Public Resources Code § 31670, and to add § § 3160.1 and 3160.2 to the PRC. This bill would require a Natural Resources Agency’s scientific study (deadline: 01/01/2015) on well stimulation treatments, acid well stimulation and hydraulic fracturing treatments, to consider additional elements, including, among other things, evaluating various potential direct, indirect, and cumulative health and environmental effects of onshore and offshore well stimulation and well stimulation treatment-related activities, as specified. Would also prohibit all well stimulation treatments until the Secretary of the Natural Resources Agency convenes a committee to review the scientific study, as specified, the Governor issues findings that specific measures are in place to ensure that well stimulation treatments do not pose a risk to, or impairment of, the public health and welfare or to the environmental and economic sustainability of the state, and, if applicable, those findings are affirmed by judicial review, as specified. Would also require the division to adopt a formal process to resolve any claims with respect to vested rights, as specified. Because a violation of the bill’s requirements would be a crime, the bill would impose a state-mandated local program.

Storm Report, 3/2/14

5:30 pm – going to be a gorgeous sunset, as we just got some sun up here. Unfortunately, my camera is in the car.

3:00 pm – 1.45″ every 1/2″ is music, gratefully welcomed. I do have to admit that the dogs and I are getting a tad stir crazy, though. Four solid days without a break of any duration.

Noon – slow and steady she goes. 1.26″ in the last 12 hours.

7:00 am – its raining.

Okay, looks like a pretty steady, gentler rain than we have had thus far. Despite that, gauges still made it to .48″ since midnight. Dogs have been out, all in but one, fire going, time for coffee!

Storm Report, 3/1/14

10:00 pm – a total of exactly one inch since midnight, bringing the yearly total to 10.25″. Not nearly enough. It is amazingly quiet and peaceful for the first time in days. Bsk signing off.

From NWS, Monterey:

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Sycamore Canyon Rd, by Herald Photographer David Royal

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 08:54 AM PST SATURDAY…THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OFF THE MONTEREY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KMUX RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF PRECIP SPINNING AROUND THE LOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MTS AND BIG SUR COAST/SANTA LUCIA MTS. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS THAT ARE DROPPING A QUICK 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 45-60 MINUTES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO OBSERVED OFF THE BIG SUR COAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS WELL.
(At 10 am, I am up to .79″ and there is a break or a lull in the rain, but not the wind.)

8:00 am – Rain continues to rage, with a current total of .64″ Winds also still raging. Roof singing to me. Tried to let the dogs out, but Missy took one look outside, turned around, found a corner, and peed on the floor. Dakota hasn’t been outside since the lightning yesterday afternoon! She had her own accident during the night. She wouldn’t come out from under the bed for HOURS after the thunder and going outside is simply beyond her capabilities when it is raining this hard. At least the other three were brave, well-trained puppies. Just gotta work on those two girls.

5:00 am – the wind woke me up. At 4;52 am, the wind gusts hit 58 mph. Not quite as impressive as yesterday am, but still pretty healthy. A few minutes ago, the gauge said it was raining cats and dogs. (I really must look up the origin of that saying and get back to you on it.) My gauge is currently reading .27″ since midnight. The CHP website is not showing any road closures at this time. As with yesterday, I will continue to monitor conditions and bring you all the latest, so you don’t have to. One stop weather shopping. 😉

Flash Flood Watch now thru Saturday Morning for Big Sur

SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST- SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
139 PM PST FRI FEB 28 2014

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF CALIFORNIA…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS… SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST.

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR AT SITES IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS HAVE REACHED SEVERAL INCHES, WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOW EXCEEDING 3 INCHES. CONTINUED RAINFALL OF SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ENGENDER FLASH FLOODING IN SMALL CREEKS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN SATURATED…STEEPER TERRAIN.

* OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE PFEIFFER FIRE BURN SCAR AND SYCAMORE CANYON AND OTHER LOCAL DRAINAGES WITHIN THE BURN SCAR PERIMETER. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING DEBRIS FLOWS AND SLIDES IN THIS AREA. EXTRA CAUTION AND PREPAREDNESS IS RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND OR LOCALIZED DEBRIS FLOWS AND SLOPE INSTABILITY. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

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Storm Report, 2/28/14

10:00 pm – I’m signing off for the evening. Thus far, I recorded 2.44″ since midnight. Winds are up a bit, again, but nothing like last night. Stay warm, stay dry, and sleep well.

And this is what we have to look forward to tomorrow – at least predicted!

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2:00 pm – thunder and lightning just started. Wind howling again, and up to almost 2″ thus far? Rain rate 2.67″/hour. Whoa, Nellie! Up to 5.14″/hour! Unbelievable! Here comes that 7-8″

20140228-133553.jpgHere is the most recent satellite. Compare it to the last one.

Noon – no rain at the moment, winds calming down, gusts only to 10 mph. Whew! It is time for a nap!

11:00 am – 1.5″ Del Venturi Rd in Ft Hunter Liggett closed. Road still open to Cambria, so far.

20140228-104933.jpg10:00 am – 1.2″, sustained winds of 30 mph. Water spouts off Point Sur per NWS. Lots of fun! 38 degrees and dropping!

9:00 am – road conditions – slide JNO of Garrapata Bridge and Traffic Hazard at Soberanes Point of unknown type. I’m willing to get there are other, unreported as yet problems.

8:00am – Winds gusted to 71 mph this am. Rain totals sitting edging up on 8/10ths, dogs went out during a break in the rain, only to be caught in a down pour. Lid blew off the wood box outside, taking a railing with it, despite being secured. Raining cats and dogs at the moment, at the rate of 2″ per hour. Big, big tree blocking Plaskett per my neighbor, and that’s just the first one. Missy and Dakota got into a dog fight with blood and a torn ear. So, how is your morning going? Add your storm stories this am.20140228-103956.jpg

Get ready, folks! 7-8″ possible

8:45 pm – home safe. Neighbor cut through large downed oak so I could get home. The wind is singing to me, beginning to sound like it might turn into a chorus, soon. Should be a fun night for those of us who are ready and hunkered down. I am.

MOVING ONTO RAINFALL ACCUMULATION…FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON…MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN…WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER…THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR THE BIG SUR COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAIN ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN…WITH THE BIG SUR COAST RECEIVING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW ISOLATED
AREAS ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FRIDAYNIGHT.

BSMAAC meeting postponed

Dear MAAC members,
Based on the storm forecast of heavy winds and up to 6” of rain expected on the Big Sur coast late tonight into tomorrow morning, the MAAC meeting has been cancelled for Friday, Feb. 28th and rescheduled for Friday, March 7th at 10:00 am. Thank you for your understanding and I will look forward to seeing you next week.

Kathleen Lee
Chief of Staff for
Supervisor Dave Potter
(831) 647-7755

Now that the meeting I had come off the hill for is canceled, my blood test done, I think I’m going to make a run for it, with a stop for groceries and gas, propane and lunch in Big Sur! Smart to get back up my hill before the big one hits! Bigsurkate