7:00 pm, while it is still early I am going to give a final report for the day as it seems all is quiet. And I am ready to settle in for the night.
Rainfall total: .81″ (at 9 pm it was .82″) for the day; 2.65″ (2.66″) for the month; 5.59″ (5.60″) thus far for the year. The maximum rain rate was 2.76″ an hour at 4:50 pm. The greatest wind gust was 33 mph at 8:05 am. If I’m forgetting anything, my weather station doesn’t measure it.
Tomorrow there is a break in the weather before a bigger storm slides in on Tuesday. I’m going to stock up, once again. This time of year, I stock up during every break, no matter how stocked I am.
10:00 am – Rain started in the very north end of Big Sur (Palo Colorado Canyon) around 7 am, it started here at 7:30. Didn’t really get heavy until about 9:30, but then it was significant. We currently have received .43″ but the barometric pressure is now raising rapidly. Will see if that means it is over.
Enjoy the quenching of the thirst of Mother Nature.
Just received this notice from the National Weather Service. Please pass this along to anyone you know living near a possible debris flow along Sycamore Canyon Road. Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving.
This heads-up briefing is targeted at public safety and emergency response personnel in the Big Sur area of Monterey County – to heighten awareness of potential impacts from debris flow/slides in Sycamore Canyon near the Pfeiffer Burn Scar.
Please contact our office at 831-656-1717 any time – a forecaster available 24 hours a day for immediate support issues.
Strong Pacific storms will bring periods of rainfall to the area beginning by Saturday noontime and persisting through Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times and will result in the most significant rainfall of the season to date.
Rain begins by noontime Saturday and continues through Tuesday/Wednesday. The time period of greatest concern for heavy rain will be Saturday afternoon-Sunday. A secondary period of heavy rain is possible Tuesday.
Wind will increase overnight Saturday and into Sunday.
Flooding/Slides: Threat will increase as rain accumulations increase with greatest risks during and immediately following the heaviest rainfall.
Rain: Rainfall totals from Saturday through Wednesday will range from 2 to 4 inches with up to 9 inches or more expected in the higher mountains.
Wind: Southwest winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH at the coast and up to 60 MPH in the higher mountains. Potential for trees and downed power lines.
Flooding and Slides: Flooding of small streams as well as low lying, and poorly drained areas is expected. Debris flow potential from Pfeiffer Burn Scar area in Sycamore Canyon during and following periods of most intense rainfall is high.
Rockfalls can be expected in the area and along Highway 1 due to the ground becoming wet and the heavy rain. Thresholds that we will use for debris flow concern:
0.70 inches in 15 minutes
0.90 inches in 1 hour
1.50 inches in 3 hours
2.00 inches in 6 hours
Looks like it could be a serious. Start preparing now. (I know I said I was taking the rest of the week off … I am, I really am, but thought we should all be aware of this ASAP.)
From my SLO meteorologist:
“A low pressure system will approach the Central Coast on Saturday
with increasing southerly winds and clouds. Periods of rain will
start Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning.
A much stronger storm system will move over San Luis Obispo County
Sunday evening into Monday with moderate gale-force to fresh gale
-force (32- to 46-mph) southerly winds late Sunday into Monday.
Periods of heavy rain is expected to start Sunday evening and
continue through Monday. Rain showers are expected to continue
into Tuesday/Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts could range between
4 and 6 inches in the Santa Lucia mountains above San Simeon,
Cambria and Cayucos. Other San Luis Obispo locations are expected
to range between 1 and 3 inches.”
Here is John’s graphic:
Here is NOAA Monterey’s current report:
“RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA (Ed. Note – that’s us) COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.
ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT…UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.”
Lots of traffic, lots of tourists, and the holidays are upon us. I am hoping to take most of the rest of this week off, unless something of importance happens. The next big storm is Saturday. I’ll be back then, if not before.
In the mean time … I am thankful for Big Sur, Mother Nature all around me, and all of you in my life. Happy Thanksgiving!
NOON: A day for fires in wood stoves, soup on the kitchen stove, cornbread in the oven, and dogs or cats curled up near or on one. A good book, a journal, or art supplies at one’s fingertips is a plus. Winter is but a month away and, for me, it is a time for introspection, solitude, and quiet.
I would have been going to a memorial for our local sweet man, Guy Kirby, but my road gets too slick to risk it, particularly with a bum knee, if I don’t have to. Guy would understand.
At noon, I have received a quarter inch. Always hoping for more. How have you done, so far?
If this prediction is accurate, it is good news for California. Along those lines, I received .30″ for this last storm, and ready for the next! Just finished charging up my batteries, firewood is loaded into my inside wood box, chili is heating in the crock pot. Yes, I am ready. There is a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon. Could be fun.
Oh, and yes, there were a series of earthquakes last night around 11 pm, centered just south of San Juan Bautista. The largest measured 4.2.
It is my pleasure to inform you that Mid Coast Fire Brigade is creating an Ocean Rescue Division!
As you may or may not know, our coastline in Monterey County is both dynamic and deadly. We respond to multiple coastal incidents every year. Up until this point, Mid Coast Fire Brigade has been unable to enter the water to access victims due to a lack of equipment and trained responders. The results for these victims are often deadly.
It is our goal to certify qualified members of our Brigade so we will be able to enter the water and may be able to prevent loss of life and respond to aquatic emergencies, in and around our area.
We are currently fundraising so that we can purchase necessary equipment. As we are a volunteer department, we must reach out to our community from time to ask for support.
Our first fundraising event is:
Event: ROCK FOR OCEAN RESCUE
Location: American Legion Post Dolores street Carmel, Ca
Date: December 20, 2014
Cost: $10 door (includes donation + raffle ticket)
If you are interested in donating items for our (ROCK FOR OCEAN RESCUE) silent auction/raffle please see our website or contact Firefighter Brian Gorrell at (831) 392-6905. We look forward to seeing you on December 20th.
Thank you in advance for your participation!
Mid Coast Fire Brigade
Mid Coast Fire Brigade