Category: 2016 Fire Season

Christmas Weekend Weather

From this afternoon’s NWS forecast:

“all agree that enough cold air will be present for snow over higher terrain Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow levels drop to 2500-3500 feet by Saturday. Cold northwest flow remains on Saturday with lingering showers possible through the day. Regarding precip amounts. It does not appear that this storm will be as strong or moisture rich as the last storm. None the less…0.25-75″ for most locations and 0.75-2″ for the hills. Depending on the exact timing of the cold air accumulating snow will be possible over the Santa Lucia range. Only real chance for a white Christmas in the Bay Area.”

From NWS, Monterey Bay:

“Much of the afternoon forecast package will focus around the evolving pattern changing later in the week. Models are coming into better agreement in bringing a storm system through the region Thursday night through early Saturday. The exact timing is not totally flushed out yet given model discrepancies. Colder air will accompany this storm system, which may bring some snow to the higher peaks in Monterey county. Will wait for the 12z model package before making any adjustments. All in all, could be a higher impact event given the holiday travel.”

From John Lindsey of SLO:

“Vigorous upper-level winds will intensify the associated cold front as it moves southeastward down the Central California Coast. This cold front is expected to pass the Central Coast Friday night with strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and heavy rain. Rain is expected to continue through Saturday morning.

Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds and rain showers are forecast Saturday afternoon and night with colder temperatures. Snow is expected in the Sierra Nevada by Friday afternoon and night above 4,000 feet with snow levels coming down further on Saturday with more than a foot of snow expected above 5,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada. Generally chilly and clear weather is forecast on Christmas.”

Some of us may see a White Christmas at the higher elevations. ❄️

Highway One closing overnight

Highway 1 will be closed overnight from Ventana Inn & Spa to Ragged Point.

Soutbound closure at Ventana will be closed at 8:00 PM.

Northbound closure at Ragged Point at 8:30 PM.

There are at least 12 locations where there are rocks on the roadway and rocks are continuing to come down so Caltrans and CHP are closing the road for safety.

First crews are going out at 5:30 AM tomorrow to assess and clear the roadway.

And from Suzi at PUSD: “UPS Kim made a delivery here at PV School about 6pm. He said that Paul’s slide (south of Hermitage, between Lucia and Limekiln) was falling faster than the CalTrans truck on scene could keep up with. We told him to turn around and come back to the school to spend the night with Lisa and I at GC’s house if he couldn’t get through on his way back to Monterey. Kim also said that he saw almost a dozen cars with flat tires. A van had 2 flat tires! No one should be on the road in this weather….”

Flash Flood Watch-Soberanes Burn Area

From the National Weather Service:

Flash Flood Watches, High Wind Watches and high tidal cycles will continue to be the main concerns. The main impacts from the front will occur Thursday afternoon/evening through the per-dawn hours of Friday.
Rock slides have already occurred that closed Highway 1 overnight, further slides are possible. Monterey County Public Works and Office of Emergency Services are monitoring weather and road conditions. Of particular concern are the areas affected by the Soberanes Fire where rain totals could be the highest.

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Upcoming Rain Event(s)

11:00 AM – UPDATE FROM NWS:

“FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Sobreanes and Chimney Burn Scar areas
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or downslope of the Soberanes and Chimney Burn Scar Areas. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for your area. The FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12/15/2016 10:00 AM to 12/16/2016 4:00 AM PST. A WATCH is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so.”

Rain will return to our region starting on Tuesday and be mostly focused on the North Bay at first. By Thursday a second system with a cold front will produce widespread rainfall that could be heavy at times along with gusty winds.

UPDATED INFORMATION
· This is the first statement for the upcoming systems.
IMPACTS

*Impact (Rain from the first system):
· (Did not include as the bulk of the impact is north of SF)
*Impact (Rain from the second system):
· Widespread rain can be expected starting late Wednesday night and down to the remainder of our region on Thursday as a cold front goes through.
· Rain will likely be moderate to heavy at times as the front approaches. Any locations that have prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain will have the potential for flooding.
· Debris flows are of concern especially around coastal ranges and recent burn scars.
· Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches for coastal ranges with locally more than 6 inches possible. For urban spots generally 3/4″ to 1 3/4″ can be expected. .
o Please see attach graphic (part 2) for potential rainfall amounts. However, please do not focus on exact values.
o Please not that the bulk of the rain may fall during a short period leading to a heightened risk of flooding.
· Driving conditions will likely be poor with ponding on roadways along with low visibility.
· Locations with poor drainage and intersections and on/off ramps prone to flooding will likely have flooding.
*Impact (Wind from the second system):
· South to southeast winds will increase Wednesday evening into Thursday as a cold front approaches our region.
· The strongest winds will be on Thursday with many urban locations likely to see gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
· Higher elevation spots will likely see gusts of 35 to 45 mph with some areas gusting to over 55 mph.
o Please see attach graphic for general wind gusts Thursday afternoon. However, please be aware that peak gusts could be higher.
· Locally strong winds will make for difficult driving conditions.
· The winds could topple trees and power lines especially for locations that are susceptible to winds that funnel in from the south or higher elevation locations.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:
· Currently none in effect although watches and advisories are likely to be issued as the event gets closer.
· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Moderate to high for rainfall and wind.
LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region..
Weather Summary
Wet weather returns as two systems will bring a return to rainy conditions to our region. The first system will mostly be focused north of San Francisco with moderate amounts of rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A bigger concern is with the second system mainly on Thursday that will bring widespread moderate to even heavy rainfall to our region as a cold front goes through. Gusty southerly winds can also be expected with the second system.
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Soberanes Fire still smoldering as of 12/10/16

From Michael Troutman:

The Soberanes Fire is still smoldering!!!!!

This same tree was still burning weeks ago, many weeks after the fire had roared through Williams Canyon.

IT’S STILL SMOKING TODAY….

Incredible.

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LPNF Closure modified

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GOLETA, CA, December 8, 2016…Los Padres National Forest officials today reduced the Soberanes Fire closure order to the area that burned during the fire, effectively reopening the southern portion of the Monterey Ranger District to the public. Forest Service law enforcement officers will strictly enforce the closure order, which carries a penalty of $5,000 and/or six months in jail. This order will expire Dec. 4, 2017.

The new Soberanes Fire Closure Area begins at the northwest corner of Section 1, Township 17 South, Range 1 East, Mount Diablo Base and Meridian and continues east following the National Forest boundary to its intersection with Camel Valley Road. The closure then continues south and east along the Forest Boundary to its intersection with private property in Section 31, Township 20 South, Range 5 East, continuing south and east along the Ventana Wilderness Boundary paralleling the western edge of the Arroyo Seco/Indians Road to its intersection with Escondido Campground. The closure then continues west along the Lost Valley Trail to its intersection with the North Coast Trail via the Lost Valley Connector, then north along the North Coast Trail to its intersection with the North Coast Ridge Road. It then continues north and west along the North Coast Ridge Road to its intersection with State Highway 1, then north along State Highway 1 to its intersection with Palo Colorado Road and east back to the starting point, as shown on the attached map.
Closure of the fire area aims to help ensure that members of the public are not injured within the fire perimeter, and allows for the scorched landscape to begin the rehabilitation process.
For more information, visit the Los Padres National Forest website at http://www.fs.usda.gov/lpnf.
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BSVFB Firefighting training

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All,

Attached is a flyer and the scheduled dates for the Fire Fighter 1 class the Fire Brigade will be having starting January 7th 2017.

We would love to have a least one person from each resort or business take the class. They do not have to join the Fire Brigade although that is our goal, to get more Brigade members. By completing this course you could have a person on staff trained on what to do in the unlikely event you experience a fire.

There is no cost for the class. We realize that weekends can be difficult but we have found with past classes that during the winter was the best time to have them.

We would like to have people that hopefully will be in Big Sur for a long time, so we don’t spend all the hours training someone who leaves in a few months if at all possible.

We only offer these classes about every two to three years.

Please let me know if you think you will be able to have someone participate in the class.
Tentative dates for 2017 FF1 class
09:00 to 17:00
January 7 and 8 Saturday and Sunday

January 14 and 15 Saturday and Sunday

January 29 SundaY
February 4 Saturday

February 11 Saturday

February 25 and 26 Saturday and Sunday
March 11 and 12 Saturday and Sunday

March 18 Saturday

March 25 and 26 Saturday and Sunday
April 8 and 9 Saturday and Sunday

April 22 and 23 Saturday and Sunday

April 30 Sunday
May 6 Saturday

May 13 Saturday (Live fire trailer?)

May 20 Saturday
June 1, 3 or 5, wildland school?
Thank you,

Martha Karstens
Chief

1-831-667-2113 W
1-831-595-9461 C

LPNF Fire Restrictions Modified

NEWS RELEASE

Los Padres National Forest
For Immediate Release
Contact: Andrew Madsen
Twitter: @LosPadresNF
Website: http://www.fs.usda.gov/lpnf

Fire Restrictions Lowered on Los Padres National Forest

GOLETA, CA, November 29, 2016 – Rainfall amounts across Los Padres National Forest have provided sufficient moisture levels to reduce Forest fire restrictions on the forest from Level IV to Level II effective immediately.

Under Level II fire restrictions, campfires and charcoal barbeques will be allowed in all developed campgrounds, also known as Designated Campfire Use Sites, within Los Padres. Dispersed fires of any kind outside of Designated Campfire Use Sites are prohibited under Level II fire restrictions. A list of Designated Campfire Use Sites is available online (http://www.fs.usda.gov/lpnf) and at all Los Padres offices.

Under Level II fire restrictions, a California Campfire Permit is required to use portable lanterns or stoves using gas, jellied petroleum, or pressurized liquid fuel outside of developed campgrounds. California Campfire Permits are available at any Forest Service or Cal Fire office, and can be downloaded for free from the Los Padres National Forest website.

Prohibitions on recreational target shooting in Los Padres are also lifted under Level II fire restrictions. Smoking is permitted only in cleared areas with a three-foot radius, and no permit burning is allowed.

The following fire restrictions will remain in effect:
· Spark arresters are required on all off-highway vehicles, chainsaws, and other internal combustion engines and equipment;
· A permit is required for all welding, grinding, cutting, or use of explosives within the forest;
· Tracer ammunition is prohibited at all times;
· Fireworks are prohibited in Los Padres National Forest at all times and in all places.

Visitors are encouraged to call the local Ranger Station for more information on conditions and restrictions.

Santa Barbara Ranger District – (805) 967-3481
Ojai Ranger District – (805) 646-4348
Mt. Pinos Ranger District – (661) 245-3731
Santa Lucia Ranger District – (805) 925-9538
Monterey Ranger District – (831) 385-5434

Mud Slide on Highway One at Capt Cooper

Well, this caught me by surprise, as I have only had .04″ today – but a mudslide near Captain Cooper closed the NB land and 1/2 the SB land, and to top it off, a volvo hit the mudslide. This is the first of the Soberanes Fire mudslides that I know of.

Okay, it has started, so pay extra attention and drive with care. Winter hasn’t even started yet.

Weekend Storm System

From NOAA NWS, Monterey: “The next storm system forecast to affect the area over the weekend is expected to arrive on the north bay coast late Friday night into early Saturday,
with rain and showers persisting through the weekend. Rain will enter the North Bay first, then spread south and east from there. Latest model guidance continues to indicate that the frontal system will stall across the forecast area on Saturday as a second low forms off the southern California coast. This could lead to locally higher amounts of rainfall over the areas where the front stalls. Post frontal showers will then continue into Sunday and possibly Sunday night as the system slowly moves to the east. Rainfall estimates for the weekend give most urban areas from a half inch to 1.5″…with less across the southern inland areas. The coastal ranges are expected to see from 1.5 to 3 inches.”