Category: 2016 Fire Season

Flash Flood Warning

Photos by Brendon Shave

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There goes the road again!

1:53 PM – just received:

This is a notification from Alert Monterey County:
THIS IS AN EMERGENCY MESSAGE

The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WARNING for your area. This message is being sent to areas at greatest risk for flash flooding.

A WARNING is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring.
A WARNING is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property.

We STRONGLY suggest you take appropriate precautions or preparations to protect life or property.

REMEMBER, A WARNING IS A HIGHER ALERT LEVEL THAN A WATCH. A WARNING MEANS IT IS IMMINENT OR HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING.

Voluntary Evacuation Notice

A voluntary evacuation order has been issued for the area in Big Sur from Fernwood to River Ridge. This is a precaution due to concerns about the potential for the Big Sur River to overflow. If you are in this area, Monterey County Sheriff’s deputies will contact you.
The River Inn has offered accommodations for those who want to voluntarily evacuate.

I am only guessing, but by “River Ridge” I believe they may mean “bridge” in referencing the bridge to Clear Ridge, as RI accommodations are on the east side, not near the river.

HIGHWAY ONE TO CLOSE AT 4 PM

Detail Information
2:09 PM 3 [4] 1039 SALCOMM W/INFO
2:06 PM 2 [3] REQ TO NTFY TMC AND NTFY MTRY COMM PRIOR TO 1600 HRS
2:06 PM 1 [1] CLOSE SR1 AT 1600 HRS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE CAL TRANS LUCIA AT RAGGED

Highway 41 Closed between MB and Atascadero

Contract being awarded to clean up this mess.

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Highway 41 will NOT reopen today, Saturday, 1/7/17

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Incident: 00234 Type: SIG Alert Location: Sr41 / Cerro Alto Rd Loc Desc: SR41 AT CERRO ALTO CAMPGROUND Lat/Lon: 35.429180 -120.751708
Detail Information
9:54 PM 2 [3] WILL BE CLOSED AT LEAST ALL NIGHT
7:30 PM 1 [1] RDWY CLOSED DUE TO MUD SLIDE

this closure is being manned. Cal Trans stopped working on it in the dark as it was too dangerous because it was still moving.

NWS Weekend Forecast update

This is by far the worst prediction 20-24″ in TWO days?? *(Insert favorite swear word here)

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…Strong storm still on track to impact our region… (I’ve edited this to make it more specific for our area, but deleting SF Info.) NOTE: Remember, watch is to signify that the even is likely, but WARNING MEANS IT IS EMINENT.

UPDATE
· In general the forecast is generally the same as yesterday.
· Flash flood watch has been posted.
· Wind advisory and high wind watch is now in effect.

IMPACTS

*Impact 1 (Rain and Flooding) :
· Widespread rainfall through the weekend.
· 2 1/2″ to 4 1/2″ for most urban areas.
· 5-10″ for higher elevation spots. Locally higher amounts possible.
· Urban and small stream flooding is likely with the potential for stream and river flooding.
· Please see attached image for locations for the Flash Flood Watch and the rain forecast.

*Impact 2 (Wind):
· Southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected with local gusts over 50 mph possible. Higher elevation locations could see gusts over 60 mph.
· Drought stressed trees and weaken roots due to wet soil may fall down as a result of these wind speeds.
· Please see the attached images for wind speed forecasts.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories as of 3 pm Friday:
WFO San Francisco/Monterey – MTR (Back to Top)
Outlook
Jan 07 1:00pm PST
Monterey
County

High Wind Warning
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 22h 2m
Jan 07 1:00pm PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 61h 2m
Jan 09 4:00am PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Pigeon Pt to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
· Northern Salinas Hollister & Carmel Vlys
Expires in: 22h 2m

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· San Francisco Bay Shore
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· San Francisco Penn Coast

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Clara Valley
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
Expires in: 56h 2m
Jan 08 11:00pm PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
· Santa Clara Valley
Expires in: 22h 2m

· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Precipitation: Moderate to High
· Wind: Moderate to High

TIMING
· Through the weekend for both rainfall and winds.
· Flooding concern will continue into Monday.

LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region.

BigSur Kate & Facebook

Please pass the word to those who follow me on FB. TPTB do not like the documentation I sent them so suspended my account. They want my CDL ori Passport or some crap. I think Keith Vandervere has it right – the NSA wants me. LOL. For what, I don’t know.

I have sent in photos of my awards from Sam Farr and from Bill Monning, but don’t know if that will be enough. Until the idiots at FB review those documents, I am cut off from FB.

Rain & Road Reports 1/4/17

Here are the rain totals from NWS for Big Sur. Note how high they were on the South Coast:

72 Hr Storm total rainfall Big Sur coast. #AtmosphericRiver
Anderson Peak 11.72
Mining Ridge 9.67
Chalk Peak 12.59
Three Peaks 13.17

Riverside Campground this morning, by Wendy Waters.

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As of 1 pm, Cal Trans (CT) has no ETA on when they will be able to open the highway. I expect an update around dusk.

Here is a photo of the Big Sur River near the Lodge by Howard Jones:

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Okay, now this is scary. This map shows a maximum of 45″ in the next 10 days. (See top of chart in white on right.) Yeah, in the brightest purple spots, which seems to include Big Sur.

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10 am – Well, here you g0. The South Coast got hammered and it is still raining, although not as hard. FYI, I am between Chalk Peak and Three Peaks:

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From Barbara Sexton, just before the Post Office:

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Atmospheric River Explained:

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8:30 am another yucky one from Lisa K – ashes to the ocean

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8:3o am – Per Sander Koning: “There’s a new active slide right north of the Hawthorne home driveway east side of the highway.”

8 am – Black water coming out of Garrapata Creek. Photo by Lisa Kleissner:

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6 am – I have received 5″ of rain, 3 of them since midnight. Currently raining at the rate of 1″ an hour. I think the meteorologists nailed this one.

In addition to the road being closed from Fuller’s (42.2 MM) and Ragged Point, there is this vehicle vs. slide at Ventana:

Incident: 00101 Type: Trfc Collision-No Inj Location: Sr1 / Ventana Loc Desc: SR1 / VENTANA, MM 44.9 Lat/Lon: 36.233742 -121.767075
Detail Information
6:11 AM 5 [7] [Rotation Request Comment] 1039 CARMEL / 831-24-3827
6:10 AM 4 [6] VEH IFO VENTANA
6:08 AM 3 [5] VEH IS RENTAL / WILL NEED 1110
6:07 AM 2 [4] VEH ON RS / FLASHERS ON
6:05 AM 1 [2] VEH VS SLIDE

Flash Flood Watch…

Was just issued through tomorrow for entire area, apparently, as I got notices for Lockwood, Plaskett, and Big Sur. Also, I received a very interesting comment on my other post  today that indicates this upcoming up to 7″ in 36 hours, may just be the dress rehearsal for a worse direct hit coming to us Saturday through Monday. If you can stay off the roads, particularly this weekend, would advise you do so. I will be watching reports on the highway closely. I am not going anywhere.

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Snow on the Santa Lucias

Photos by Craig Mathews of the Soberanes Burn Scar this morning:

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