Month: January 2010

Storm Watch, 1/15/10

5:00 pm update. Extra Dog Food? Check. Extra Gas? Check. Extra People Food? Check. Books, movies, work. All hunkered in and ready to ride it out. It is 50 degrees outside, but feels much colder due to the wind chill factor. I have moved my digital thermometer to make it more accessible at night, at least for the coming events. Otherwise, the only real changes to what has already been forecast, is the possibility of a few showers tonight, in some areas. Let me know if you get any. Keep your eye on the sky, NOAA weather alerts, and on the road and streams for possible mudslides. If you haven’t stocked up, anticipated power outages, and stream blockages, please do so tomorrow. And don’t forget your pets!

I am busy preparing for the next series of storms, the first, mild one to hit tomorrow. Here is a IR satellite map of the US.

And here is one of the Pacific:

And this link shows a fascinating animated look at the storms up to 180 hours out: storm surfing

Here is the weather watch from NWS for the Santa Lucia Mountains and the Los Padres National Forest:

THE FIRST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA STARTING LATE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE SERIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD MORE RAIN INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.

A SECOND BREAK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT AND MOST POWERFUL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK APPROACHES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER WEILL INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 3-5 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 FOR THE VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHOWERS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE.. A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD…TOTAL RAINFALL COULD REACH 10-15 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE WETTEST LOCATIONS. IN THE VALLEYS…4-8 INCHES.

Serious El Niño Event Approaching

Without being an alarmist, and in the spirit of preparedness, I offer you the following insights. I received a notice issued by a Southern California Emergency Response group from one of my readers. It is predicting unprecedented events over the next few weeks. I have posted the NWS language below the satellite shots, but the bottom line is, BE PREPARED, BIG SUR!!

Here are a couple of today’s satellite images:

And from the NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTERS in Maryland:
“ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 TO 4 SURGES COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE FAST PAC FLOW THIS PERIOD EACH WITH ROUNDS OF HVY PCPN. AT THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO COME IN AROUND SAT-SUN..MON..TUES AND ANOTHER THURS-FRI WITH MORE TO FOLLOW. MONDAYS SURGE HITS THE ENTIRE COAST FROM VANCOUVER SOUTH TO PT CONCEPTION BUT THEN AS THE HTS FALL AND THE JET CORE SHIFTS SWD THE TARGET AREA WILL BE MORE INTO CENTRAL CA AND SRN CA TUES ONWARD. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN OVERALL RANGE OF 7-12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA AND ESPECIALLY SOCAL. SOME LOCAL FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH 20 INCH LIQUID
AMOUNTS. VERY HVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FLOODING MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY.”

Road Closure update

Date: Thursday, January 14, 2010
District: 5 (Santa Barbara, SLO, Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Benito Counties)
Contact: Susana Z. Cruz or Colin Jones
Phone: (805) 549-3138 or (805) 549-3189
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
*Update7*
HIGHWAY 1 DAYTIME WORK ONLY NORTH OF RAGGED POINT CONTINUES

SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY – Construction to install several horizontal drains on Highway 1 one mile north of Ragged Point continues during the daytime only; night-time closures are complete.

One-way daytime traffic control with flaggers will continue from 7:00 am until 4:00 pm Monday through Thursday and until 2 pm on Fridays. There will be no construction between 2:00 pm on Fridays and 8:00 pm on Sundays. Authorized emergency vehicles will have access to Highway 1 at all times during this project. Electronic message signs will be provided to advise motorists, who can expect delays not to exceed 20 minutes.

(Note: this release is a bit ambiguous, but I think they probably just copied and pasted in the body. If no overnight closures any more, why the 8 pm Sunday night language? The title indicated that overnight closures are finished, it would appear.)

Current Forecast, 1/16-1/27/10

“LIGHT RAIN WILL START ON SATURDAY DUE TO A MINOR DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER STORM FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE CWA. TOTALS COULD EASILY EXCEED 3 INCHES AT HIGHER SPOTS WITH UP TO AN INCH FOR MANY URBAN LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION…DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN EVEN BE EXPECTED. IMMEDIATELY AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE…MORE SYSTEMS CRASH IN ON TUESDAY…WEDNESDAY…AND THURSDAY WITH EVEN MORE FORECAST BEYOND THAT. IN FACT…CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY (OUT TO JANUARY 27TH) OUTLOOKS HAVE US WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL.”

Get ready, boys and girls. El Niño is coming. The last ENSCO I read indicated the El Niño effects were predicted to last until June!

Rain Totals, 1/13/10

Last night’s total was 1.5 inches, 2.75 for the storm, and 26.6 for the season to date.

Today, the sun keeps trying to come out, but of course, condensation from the wet ground creates a gray, wet blanket.

Per the usual NOAA sources, it looks like a couple dry days ahead, then, oh boy, watch out. (See forecast post for details.)

Weather Report, 1/12/10

10:45 pm update – it has been raining on and off all evening, but no lightning, at least so far. I would guess we have received another 1/2 inch, at least, and will probably hit an inch by first light. I will post tomorrow morning. It is rain that is sorely needed and well appreciated.

5:00 pm update – total rain received today 1.25 inches, for a season total of 25.1 inches. NOAA has issued these warnings: “TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY…HIGH SURF WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE COAST.” Also reports indicate lightning possible later tonight.

By 9:30 am, I received 1/2 inch up here. The rain started sometime between 4 am and dawn (while I was sleeping). It continues lightly, and by 11, it is almost (but not quite) up to 3/4 of an inch. Nice, gentle rain, and not too cold.

From NOAA: “9:50 AM PST TUESDAY…MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE SHORT TERM RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING…ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.”

January’s Wildflowers

Today, I was lucky enough to spot these wildflowers on my way down the mountain.


This is an Indian Paintbrush, probably Castilleja chromosa, the most common western paintbrush. I say probably, as I have misplaced my $75 Jepson’s. This paintbrush is also called Early Indian Paintbrush or Desert Paintbrush. It is found all over the Western United States in dry conditions. The genus Castilleja is generally considered a hemiparasite. It can live without a host, however it performs better with one. The patches I usually photograph are intertwined with a local vetch, which is high in nitrogen.


This is the vetch that grows with the paintbrush, as well as on its own. It is probably Vicia americana, which is native to all of California. It is high in nitrogen and makes a great cover crop as well as functions well for erosion control.


This lupine is probably the Lupinus albifrons or Silver Bush Lupine. It is a perennial and likes dry conditions. As with the vetch, this is a great nitrogen fixer. I have several natives growing in my garden. This one was shot at a much lower elevation, where plants bloom earlier.


This is the Santa Lucia Gooseberry, or Ribes sericeum. It is a favorite of birds, and the berries are delicious, although I rarely get more than a few, as the birds beat me to them! Here is one in berry form that I took last June. See those spikes? Ouch. They are quite sharp, and thus the name, “gooseberry.”

I hope to post two of these monthly wildflowers each month during the blooming season. I am not the best at identification, despite my best efforts to be accurate. In order to assure accuracy, I am asking firefox, of Fire Safe Gardens, and XT of Xasauan Today to check these for accuracy and post in the comments below. Both are listed in the Big Sur/LPNF links to the right, as well as direct links in this post. Both have extensive knowledge of local flora and are wonderful human beings. Thanks, gentlemen, for all your help this past year and a half with blogging!

Self Reliance Foundation Study

I have mixed feelings about the project proposed below, and am trying to crystalize them before I render a response, but I thought others might be interested in doing so as well, so I quote from an email I received below:

Do forward this on to all interested folks, or get me their contacts, as we want no stone unturned in terms of seeking community input for this effort, even those who might be opposed to it!
Self Reliance Foundation 1201 Connecticut Ave, NW, Ste. 700, Washington, DC 20036, 202.496.6046

Self Reliance Foundation is conducting a feasibility study for new, innovative, user-friendly ways to explain the historical, cultural, and environmental values of the Big Sur Coast and State Highway Route One scenic byway, from Carmel to south of the Hearst Castle.

One of the aims of this effort is to solicit and incorporate ideas about both content about Highway 1, as well as the best systems for delivering it from people like yourself—community activists, businesses, and organizations who have a love and concern for the Big Sur/San Simeon region.

We’d like to learn from you and your membership about what sort of information you consider to be critical to visitors’ understanding of this region.

We’d also like your thoughts on the ideal way to convey information about the Highway 1 scenic corridor to travelers. Today the range of delivery systems varies from educational signs at Caltrans’ designated pullouts, Web pages, and paper maps, to GPS and phone delivered information, low-power short-distance radio transmissions, and other modalities.

Our initial ideas include a website modeled on the Big Sur Chamber of Commerce site that will allow visitors to plan trips from south-to-north and north-to-south, and that will have tabs for environment, history, culture, safety, and other features. We plan to produce content in English and Spanish to serve California’s diverse constituencies.

We will be exploring a range of systems. The website would allow visitors to download information to cell phones and automobile navigation devices. We also may recommend the installation of very small low-power radio transmitters at the northern and southern entrances to theRoute 1 Big Sur Coast Highway and Route 1 San Luis Obispo North Coast Byway so that drivers with older vehicles can also access information. (This would not require construction of any towers).

Please feel free to contact me with your thoughts on this venture at 415 /902 0019, or share your views via email, writing me at David.Kupfer@gmail.com. To gain your valuable perspective on these topic, I am available to meet with you or your organization in person or to speak with you over the phone.

End of the Day


When words fail me, a sunset will do. I am learning a lot about white balance, shooting sunsets. This was one of 5, the closest in colors to what I actually was witnessing.

I do have a request from an organization in D.C. I will post here later today.

Weather discussion still indicates a storm coming through late Monday/early Tuesday. A smaller storm Friday into Saturday, and then a much bigger storm Sunday through next Wednesday. That one is still a ways out, and may be modified (will?) as it gets closer.

**ROAD CLOSURE** And finally, don’t forget, beginning at 8 pm this evening, Highway One will be closed 1 mile north of Ragged Point from 8 pm until 5 am, continuing each night until 5 am Friday morning. I’ll bet this is a boon to Ragged Point!

Weather Watch, 1/9/10

Per the NOAA discussion: INCOMING SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE RAIN
SHOULD START IN THE NORTH BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN OVERSPREAD THE BAY AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE STEADY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION…WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. QPF NUMBERS LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH GENERAL 1-2 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LOCAL 3 INCHES FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.