Tag: rain

Rain & Road Reports 1/4/17

Here are the rain totals from NWS for Big Sur. Note how high they were on the South Coast:

72 Hr Storm total rainfall Big Sur coast. #AtmosphericRiver
Anderson Peak 11.72
Mining Ridge 9.67
Chalk Peak 12.59
Three Peaks 13.17

Riverside Campground this morning, by Wendy Waters.

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As of 1 pm, Cal Trans (CT) has no ETA on when they will be able to open the highway. I expect an update around dusk.

Here is a photo of the Big Sur River near the Lodge by Howard Jones:

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Okay, now this is scary. This map shows a maximum of 45″ in the next 10 days. (See top of chart in white on right.) Yeah, in the brightest purple spots, which seems to include Big Sur.

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10 am – Well, here you g0. The South Coast got hammered and it is still raining, although not as hard. FYI, I am between Chalk Peak and Three Peaks:

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From Barbara Sexton, just before the Post Office:

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Atmospheric River Explained:

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8:30 am another yucky one from Lisa K – ashes to the ocean

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8:3o am – Per Sander Koning: “There’s a new active slide right north of the Hawthorne home driveway east side of the highway.”

8 am – Black water coming out of Garrapata Creek. Photo by Lisa Kleissner:

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6 am – I have received 5″ of rain, 3 of them since midnight. Currently raining at the rate of 1″ an hour. I think the meteorologists nailed this one.

In addition to the road being closed from Fuller’s (42.2 MM) and Ragged Point, there is this vehicle vs. slide at Ventana:

Incident: 00101 Type: Trfc Collision-No Inj Location: Sr1 / Ventana Loc Desc: SR1 / VENTANA, MM 44.9 Lat/Lon: 36.233742 -121.767075
Detail Information
6:11 AM 5 [7] [Rotation Request Comment] 1039 CARMEL / 831-24-3827
6:10 AM 4 [6] VEH IFO VENTANA
6:08 AM 3 [5] VEH IS RENTAL / WILL NEED 1110
6:07 AM 2 [4] VEH ON RS / FLASHERS ON
6:05 AM 1 [2] VEH VS SLIDE

Forecast for the week beginning 1/2/17

And here is another one from Daniel Swain of Weather West, covering the next TWO weeks. We are overcoming our drought in one swoop! Looks like 16-20″. Oh my.

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Latest 7 day precipitation outlook from NWSWPC shows locally 10-15″ for coastal range in Monterey County. Oh, lordy.

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Christmas Weekend Weather

From this afternoon’s NWS forecast:

“all agree that enough cold air will be present for snow over higher terrain Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow levels drop to 2500-3500 feet by Saturday. Cold northwest flow remains on Saturday with lingering showers possible through the day. Regarding precip amounts. It does not appear that this storm will be as strong or moisture rich as the last storm. None the less…0.25-75″ for most locations and 0.75-2″ for the hills. Depending on the exact timing of the cold air accumulating snow will be possible over the Santa Lucia range. Only real chance for a white Christmas in the Bay Area.”

From NWS, Monterey Bay:

“Much of the afternoon forecast package will focus around the evolving pattern changing later in the week. Models are coming into better agreement in bringing a storm system through the region Thursday night through early Saturday. The exact timing is not totally flushed out yet given model discrepancies. Colder air will accompany this storm system, which may bring some snow to the higher peaks in Monterey county. Will wait for the 12z model package before making any adjustments. All in all, could be a higher impact event given the holiday travel.”

From John Lindsey of SLO:

“Vigorous upper-level winds will intensify the associated cold front as it moves southeastward down the Central California Coast. This cold front is expected to pass the Central Coast Friday night with strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) southerly winds and heavy rain. Rain is expected to continue through Saturday morning.

Strong to gale-force (25 to 38 mph) northwesterly winds and rain showers are forecast Saturday afternoon and night with colder temperatures. Snow is expected in the Sierra Nevada by Friday afternoon and night above 4,000 feet with snow levels coming down further on Saturday with more than a foot of snow expected above 5,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada. Generally chilly and clear weather is forecast on Christmas.”

Some of us may see a White Christmas at the higher elevations. ❄️

Rain Reports & Road Conditions, 12/15/16

8:30 pm – the highway closed at 8pm, there was a car on its roof at the Big Sur Station, and now we are under a flood warning:

“FLASH FLOOD WARNING – Soberanes & Chimney Burn Scars
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or down-slope of the Soberanes or Chimney Burn Scars. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WARNING for your area. A WARNING is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring. A WARNING is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property.”

6:30 PM – it just got serious. 40 mph, 1/3″ an hour. Total so far today, 1.35″

3:3-0 pm – Many rock/mudslides in   Santa Cruz being reported.

2:30 pm – up to .60″ and it is just getting going.

1 pm – here are the graphs, yesterday’s (again) and today’s which is quite higher.

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Noon:

Rain: I have received .28″ thus far, steady, but light all morning. Also received .25″ yesterday by dark. Nepenthe is up to .34″ thus far. This is what the automated gauges have recorded as of 11 am:

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Roads:  As far as the roads, no big problems being reported, but there are bound to be rocks out on Highway One, so pay attention as you travel, and report what needs reporting.

Flash Flood Watch-Soberanes Burn Area

From the National Weather Service:

Flash Flood Watches, High Wind Watches and high tidal cycles will continue to be the main concerns. The main impacts from the front will occur Thursday afternoon/evening through the per-dawn hours of Friday.
Rock slides have already occurred that closed Highway 1 overnight, further slides are possible. Monterey County Public Works and Office of Emergency Services are monitoring weather and road conditions. Of particular concern are the areas affected by the Soberanes Fire where rain totals could be the highest.

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Upcoming Rain Event(s)

11:00 AM – UPDATE FROM NWS:

“FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Sobreanes and Chimney Burn Scar areas
This message is for any of the areas inside/alongside/or downslope of the Soberanes and Chimney Burn Scar Areas. The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for your area. The FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12/15/2016 10:00 AM to 12/16/2016 4:00 AM PST. A WATCH is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so.”

Rain will return to our region starting on Tuesday and be mostly focused on the North Bay at first. By Thursday a second system with a cold front will produce widespread rainfall that could be heavy at times along with gusty winds.

UPDATED INFORMATION
· This is the first statement for the upcoming systems.
IMPACTS

*Impact (Rain from the first system):
· (Did not include as the bulk of the impact is north of SF)
*Impact (Rain from the second system):
· Widespread rain can be expected starting late Wednesday night and down to the remainder of our region on Thursday as a cold front goes through.
· Rain will likely be moderate to heavy at times as the front approaches. Any locations that have prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain will have the potential for flooding.
· Debris flows are of concern especially around coastal ranges and recent burn scars.
· Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches for coastal ranges with locally more than 6 inches possible. For urban spots generally 3/4″ to 1 3/4″ can be expected. .
o Please see attach graphic (part 2) for potential rainfall amounts. However, please do not focus on exact values.
o Please not that the bulk of the rain may fall during a short period leading to a heightened risk of flooding.
· Driving conditions will likely be poor with ponding on roadways along with low visibility.
· Locations with poor drainage and intersections and on/off ramps prone to flooding will likely have flooding.
*Impact (Wind from the second system):
· South to southeast winds will increase Wednesday evening into Thursday as a cold front approaches our region.
· The strongest winds will be on Thursday with many urban locations likely to see gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
· Higher elevation spots will likely see gusts of 35 to 45 mph with some areas gusting to over 55 mph.
o Please see attach graphic for general wind gusts Thursday afternoon. However, please be aware that peak gusts could be higher.
· Locally strong winds will make for difficult driving conditions.
· The winds could topple trees and power lines especially for locations that are susceptible to winds that funnel in from the south or higher elevation locations.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories:
· Currently none in effect although watches and advisories are likely to be issued as the event gets closer.
· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Moderate to high for rainfall and wind.
LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region..
Weather Summary
Wet weather returns as two systems will bring a return to rainy conditions to our region. The first system will mostly be focused north of San Francisco with moderate amounts of rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A bigger concern is with the second system mainly on Thursday that will bring widespread moderate to even heavy rainfall to our region as a cold front goes through. Gusty southerly winds can also be expected with the second system.
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Soft, Gentle Rain, 11/28/16

A surprise rain this am – up to .16″ by 7 am. Was not expecting this. No reports of traffic problems on Highway One in Big Sur.

Rain Reports, 11/26/16

6:57 pm – a major downpour at the rate of almost 4″ and hour. That lasted for a few minutes, and now just consistent rain, heavy at times.

9:30 am – here is the weather spotter number for NWS-Monterey Bay: 800-826-7827. Call this number if you spot ANY debris flow anywhere near the Soberanes Fire area. Note the location (GPS coordinates a plus) and date and time. If you have a photo of it send to:

nws.bayarea@noaa.gov

The more info we send them early in the winter, the more they can fine-tune their predictions later in the season.

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7 am – It started about 6 am, and within an hour, I had about 1/2″ of rain. I don’t see any reports of road problems, yet, but there are bound to be rocks on the road, so drive carefully. I will check back throughout the day, but please share any information you have. In my trip north on Turkey Day, I saw several spots in Big Sur Valley which could be very problematic this winter. Stock up, keep gassed up, and take care of each other.

Rain Report, 10/28/16

9:30 am – been quiet since 9 am, when I glimpsed a lot of blue sky before the clouds closed in on me. Big Sur Station reports 1.4″ of rain, a report of 1.1″ in Seaside Highlands, and another local reports the highway is clear from River Inn to Lucia. So far, so good, but several more storms to go, yet.

7:00 am – I woke at 12:30 am to the sound I had been waiting all day for – the patter of dogs and cats across my roof – or so my rain gauge told me. The rain rate was 1.23″/hour or well past the 1/2″ rate that triggers debris flow – raining cats and dogs is a favorite saying of my rain gauge. I was still up an hour later and noted that we had had that 1/2″. My worry began for my neighbors to the north and to the east, particularly Palo Colorado Canyon.

Eventually, I did get back to sleep and re-woke at 6:30 am. Now, the rain is soft and gentle, and I note no other periods of heavy rainfall while I slept. It is now 1.1″ since midnight. I check the CHP site and see roadway flooding notes all over Monterey County, particularly along highway 101, but none here? Really? Meredith Gafill commented on my post on FB of a problem by Lucia, but it is gone when I check. I will continue to keep an eye out and hope those of you who can will share reports with the rest of us. We have rain predicted on and off through Tuesday, so this could become a very long weekend, particularly near the burn scar of the Soberanes. Be safe, everyone.

Here are the 24 hour totals. Some automatic gauges did not work, thus an “M” for missing.

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Upcoming Storm

I’ve already got rain here, despite contrary predictions. Nice that everything is wet, and more seemed to be coming as dawn arrived, before I got enshrouded in clouds, but the big story is the storm this Thursday and Friday.

From NOAA NWS: “The trends seem to indicate that the heaviest rains with the late
week system will be focused somewhere between the Santa Cruz mtns and Santa Barbara county putting the central coast (i.e. Big Sur) potentially in the bullseye for an incoming southwest flow system. The ecmwf has been pretty consistent with this solution for days
now and the latest 06z gfs is more or less in line. Given the trajectory of the incoming low would expect the heavier rains with the late week system for the southern portions of the district most notably the Santa Cruz mtns and Big Sur hills where 1-4 inches may occur with the late week system Thursday into early Friday.”

And from my SLO forecaster: “In Northern California, a slow moving cold front associated
with this trough of low pressure will push southward today spreading rain as far south as Monterey Bay by tonight, before stalling over Big Sur and dissipating on Tuesday.”