It has been poring all night. By 8:30 pm, my weather station read 1.99″, and by 9:30 pm, it read 2.37″ and it is still raining cats and dogs – as my weather station likes to Point out.
At the 6:30, I am up to 1.25″ – much more than expected!
And as of 3:30 pm, I have 3/4″ for today, the Solstice.
It started down here before 6 am, and by 7 am it was raining cats ‘n dogs. By 7:30 am, I have had 1/2″ of rain, with no immediate end in sight. There are multiple problems on the roads in Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties – 23 at last count. Trees are down, there is one mudslide in the Gilroy/Hollister area, and many, many traffic accidents. The winds are really beginning to howl … Enough to frighten the dogs and lend an eeriness to the sounds of the storm, gusting to 27mph. If you must be out and about, do so with care, and report any concerns in the comments below, as I will be turning off the satellite internet for much of the day, and using the less-reliable cell. Satellite and wifi drain my solar system too much on a day without sun. Enjoy our first REAL storm of the season, but be aware of conditions.
8:00 am – via SLOStringer – #Breaking – Bluebird Inn in Cambria, large tree down onto at least 4 vehicles, reports of parties trapped. Emergency crews enroute. 8:00AM
10:00 am – Highway 101 NB at Cochrane in Gilroy is flooded, Lane 1, with one foot of water.
11:00 am – 2″ at Rocky Creek, 1 and 1/2″ at Garrapata, over 1″ here. Making its way north to south. Roads will be a mess. Take good care.
1:00 pm – rain stopped an hour ago or so, and there are scattered clouds, partial blue sky, and shadows on the ground.
10:00 am – My SLO forecaster has this to say about today and tomorrow:
“In fact, the European weather model is advertising nearly a half of an inch of rain today into Tuesday. So far this morning, many stations have reported between a trace and 0.04 of an inch of rain.
Scattered thundershowers may develop along the Tehachapis, Sierra Nevada and higher elevations of Santa Lucia Mountains. Today’s high temperatures will range between the mid 60 and high 70s throughout
the Central Coast.”
At 8:00 am, I noticed drops on my deck. My rain gauge isn’t recording anything yet, but it is definitely raining. Drops on the deck and drops on the windows. My two most sensitive dogs are acting like there is thunder about, also, although I can’t hear anything, myself. The dawn brought the look of rain – dark, overcast, and it was right. Anything will help settle the dust! Welcome! Make yourself at home, rain!
2:00 pm – I’ll be darned … Rain. It began around 1:30, and by 2 I had received .02″ and increased to .06″ an hour. Also had to build a fire in the first time in …. Hmm … Can’t remember. I am going to so enjoy this afternoon. Already had the company and the ham, rain started and Rock Knocker went home. I’m going to enjoy a quiet afternoon with a fire and a movie. Perfect Easter. Oh, and there is a “hanger” – a huge tree down, but caught up. Ralph said it was spooky, like a tunnel to drive through. Was going to town tomorrow, but rethinking that.
Doesn’t look like much, if any Rain, for Big Sur tonight, but Tuesday through Wednesday looks good! I am watching the clouds come in from just about every direction, though. Also starting to layer up, and thinking of bringing in more firewood. All good things. Happy Easter to all of you who celebrate this holiday.
From my SLO Weathercaster:
An impressive (549-dm) upper-level low pressure system iforecast to move over the Central Coast tonight. This system is currently producing a few scattered rain showers this morning, however, convective showers will become heavier by tonight.
This system will draw cold air from the upper levels of the atmosphere and create an unstable atmosphere with the a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight.
These thunderstorms can create gusty winds, hail and periods of heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between a quarter and three quarters of an inch.
However, if your location is near a thunderstorm, higher amounts of precipitation could develop.
Today’s maximum temperatures will range from the high 50s to the low 60s. Snow levels are expected to drop to near 4,500 feet in the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains with up to nine inches of new snow above 5,000 feet.
6:45 pm
7:00 am – What happened to the break in the weather expected for today, before the BIG one rolls in tomorrow? It was raining at the rate of 1/2″ an hour just moments ago. Maybe an isolated shower? Was going to try to slip out … But …
And now. 20 minutes later, I have received .12″
Looks like it could be a serious. Start preparing now. (I know I said I was taking the rest of the week off … I am, I really am, but thought we should all be aware of this ASAP.)
From my SLO meteorologist:
“A low pressure system will approach the Central Coast on Saturday
with increasing southerly winds and clouds. Periods of rain will
start Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning.
A much stronger storm system will move over San Luis Obispo County
Sunday evening into Monday with moderate gale-force to fresh gale
-force (32- to 46-mph) southerly winds late Sunday into Monday.
Periods of heavy rain is expected to start Sunday evening and
continue through Monday. Rain showers are expected to continue
into Tuesday/Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts could range between
4 and 6 inches in the Santa Lucia mountains above San Simeon,
Cambria and Cayucos. Other San Luis Obispo locations are expected
to range between 1 and 3 inches.”
Here is John’s graphic:
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Here is NOAA Monterey’s current report:
“RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA (Ed. Note – that’s us) COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.
ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT…UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.”
Could be a fun 4-5 days.
Midnight … Ended up with 2.17″ for Halloween. Nice. Hopefully we will get more on Saturday. Enjoy.
4:30 pm – The storm front hit here at 3:25 pm, when the rain rate per hour reached 1.47″/hour. We have received .41″ so far today, and the rain rate per hour has been primarily between 1/2″ and 1 and 1/2 inch for the last hour.
I am SO glad I decided to take a pass on going out today … my ability to get home, of some concern to me. I have been able to enjoy the sound of this first real rain of the season, the company of my dogs, hot chocolate, and soon, a fire in the wood stove. The simple pleasures of living in the wilds of Big Sur …they nourish me .
Oops, just hit over 3 and 1/2″ per hour rain rate. Yeehaw!
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN MOVING THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND MIDWEEK AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOT MAKE IT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO ABOUT THE MONTEREY PENINSULA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER…THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE QUITE WELL IN PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE GEM MODEL…ON THE OTHER HAND…INDICATES MUCH MORE MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH AND THIS MODEL SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES CONSIDERABLY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EXPECTATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM…BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY AS WE DRAW NEARER TO THE PRECIP EVENT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE MOSTLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS…ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THESE TOTALS ARE BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR IF THE 00Z GEM SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY.
