8:30 am – I currently have a mixture of sun, clouds, and thunder – only one, but loud! I got almost 3/4″ yesterday, and another .16″ this morning. We are at 1.30″ for the month, and 6.30″ for the year.
If Mike Morales is able to get any sun this am up his way in Carmel, he will be out grabbing some big waves shots for your viewing this afternoon. 33′ at Point Sur at 11 pm last night! I’ll also be updating this weather report as necessary, throughout the day.
Daniel Swain, of Weather West, whose great blog is found here, has confirmed that this week El Niño is making its way into Northern California. He has this to say:
“First, I want to reassure everyone that reports of El Niño’s demise have been -greatly exaggerated-demonstrably false. Very much to the contrary, El Niño is presently maintaining its record-breaking peak intensity, and temperature anomalies in the key Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean are higher on both a weekly and monthly basis than they have been at any time since at least the 1950s (surpassing even the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 events). Clearly, an extremely strong El Niño remains deeply entrenched in the Pacific–and, as I’ll discuss shortly, California weather impacts are starting to emerge.”
Our local forecast is for rain to begin Thursday afternoon/evening and continue into Friday, with another storm possible on Sunday. Most of us have been getting ready for months. Now we will find out how ready we really are. I bought myself a radio/flashlight that has the Monterey Weather station on it that runs via solar power or hand crank. It can even charge my cell phone, if necessary! Extra wool socks and heavy leggings were tucked in my Amazon box, too (as well as some things for others).
First, above, this week. And below, later. I think the key word is “experimental.” So don’t get too excited, yet.
10:00 am – My SLO forecaster has this to say about today and tomorrow:
“In fact, the European weather model is advertising nearly a half of an inch of rain today into Tuesday. So far this morning, many stations have reported between a trace and 0.04 of an inch of rain.
Scattered thundershowers may develop along the Tehachapis, Sierra Nevada and higher elevations of Santa Lucia Mountains. Today’s high temperatures will range between the mid 60 and high 70s throughout
the Central Coast.”
At 8:00 am, I noticed drops on my deck. My rain gauge isn’t recording anything yet, but it is definitely raining. Drops on the deck and drops on the windows. My two most sensitive dogs are acting like there is thunder about, also, although I can’t hear anything, myself. The dawn brought the look of rain – dark, overcast, and it was right. Anything will help settle the dust! Welcome! Make yourself at home, rain!
From Daniel Swain, of Weather West. For niffty charts and graphs and all manner of things, see his blog “Weather West” – link in the right column.
“Early 2015 brought similar news, with several new bursts of westerly winds and corresponding model forecasts of a building El Niño. This time, however, the anomalous westerly winds did not abate. The East Pacific had already built up considerable tropical and extratropical warmth during the “non-El Niño” of 2014, and additional heat quickly accumulated through the spring and early summer months of 2015. Much unlike 2014, ocean-atmosphere model forecasts continued to grow more emphatic regarding the potential for a very significant El Niño event by late summer. And this time, they were right: warmth the eastern tropical Pacific has recently reached values only seen previously during the strongest El Niño on record in 1997-1998. The atmosphere, too, has gotten its act together this time around—and is exhibiting a more strongly El Niño-like circulation pattern than has ever been observed previously during the summer months. Nearly every record that exists regarding tropical cyclones in the tropical Pacific has been broken over the past six months—and as of this writing, 3 major hurricanes were churning simultaneously over the central and eastern Pacific for the first time in recorded history. In fact, the combination of a powerful El Niño event and the sudden re-emergence of accumulated heat from the tropical West Pacific has created unprecedented warmth over a vast expanse of ocean, stretching thousands of miles from coastal Peru to the Gulf of Alaska.”
“It’s hard to imagine a more powerful predictive signal for California winter precipitation than the occurrence of a very strong El Niño event. Weak to moderate El Niño events can have highly variable effects in California, and are in most cases poor predictors of how much precipitation might fall in the Golden State. But the big events are a whole different ballgame—and the presence of a powerful El Niño in the tropical Pacific is the single most useful piece of information we have regarding what might take place in the months to come.
While even a record-strength El Niño in the tropical Pacific does not mean that California will experience record rains this winter—since there are always other factors at play—it does strongly shift the odds in favor of a wet winter. This not only fits with conceptual models regarding the atmospheric effects of El Niño, but is also strongly supported by model predictions. While the models do disagree upon the details, there is a very clear signal toward a classic “El Niño” winter dipole along the West Coast of North America, with much below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia and much above-average precipitation over essentially all of California from the Oregon border to Baja California.”
There you have it. Stocking up on extra food, dog food, wine, propane, and gas. Am I forgetting anything?
From my SLO Weatherperson, “Asthe ridge remains entrenched, subtropical moisture will be transported northward over most of California on Sunday into Tuesday with increasing mid to high-level clouds and a potential for rain showers and thunderstorms. It will feel muggy in the inland areas, however, increasing northwesterly winds on Sunday afternoon into Tuesday will keep the beaches and coastal valleys cooler.
The ridge will move off to the northwest late next week for gradually cooler temperatures over the 4th of July weekend.
just a week or so ago, weather forecasters were saying the chances of an El Niño – in fact a strong one – for this winter were increasing substantially. Then today, NOAA, Monterey Bay said no, the models were all over the map.
The most succinct statement was issued today in the last paragraph of Daniel Swain’s blog, Weather West. He says: “And just to reiterate a key point from above: we still don’t know for sure whether strong or very strong El Niño conditions will ultimately develop (nor whether they will persist until winter, when they are most relevant for California). Confidence is starting to increase in current projections, since we’re now emerging from the Spring Predictability Barrier and most dynamical models are still suggesting the potential for a powerful event. But when we concatenate all the various uncertainties discussed above, there’s still something of an open question regarding what happens in California next winter. At this point, it’s fair to state that the likelihood of experiencing a wetter-than-average winter (and, perhaps, flooding) is increasing, but simultaneously that the risk of the California drought continuing into 2016 is nearly 100%. Needless to say: it will probably be a very interesting year to come for weather and climate-watchers in the Golden State. Stay tuned!”
It’s a fascinating read with some interesting animated graphics. I suggest you go take a look, then bookmark this guy, and/or sign up for email notifications. He only blogs about once a month, but that may increase as we approach the end of summer.
Okay, I am reading predictions of a super El Niño, rivaling 1998. So how accurate are these predictions? Per NOAA, it depends on when the prediction is made. In Spring, NO reliability, but as we move away from Spring, the predictions become more accurate.there is a great chart that demonstrates this. 
In the meantime, this is what forecasters are saying:
“NOAA’s CFSv2 model is forecasting a strong El Nino event will develop this summer and continue through 2015. Warm water along the west coast, combined with weaker than normal winds caused by El Nino will prevent nutrient rich cold water from welling up along the coast. Species that depend on nutrient upwelling will face starvation. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has an excellent El Nino forecasting model which is also predicting a strong El Nino. Because the jet stream has already gone into an El Nino pattern by moving south over the eastern Pacific ocean and Mexico and further north than normal over the eastern Atlantic ocean, the likelihood of El Nino failing to strengthen is small. Last year’s Kelvin wave failed to bring on a strong El Nino because trade winds in the south Pacific didn’t weaken but this year they have and waters along the west coast of south America have already warmed. The south Pacific has moved out of the cool mode it was in a year ago.”
I will continue to explore and discuss this possibility as it developers, and IF it developers as predicted, I will explore what that means in terms of road closures for Big Sur by looking at what happened in 1998, the last Super El Niño.
2:00 pm – I’ll be darned … Rain. It began around 1:30, and by 2 I had received .02″ and increased to .06″ an hour. Also had to build a fire in the first time in …. Hmm … Can’t remember. I am going to so enjoy this afternoon. Already had the company and the ham, rain started and Rock Knocker went home. I’m going to enjoy a quiet afternoon with a fire and a movie. Perfect Easter. Oh, and there is a “hanger” – a huge tree down, but caught up. Ralph said it was spooky, like a tunnel to drive through. Was going to town tomorrow, but rethinking that.
Doesn’t look like much, if any Rain, for Big Sur tonight, but Tuesday through Wednesday looks good! I am watching the clouds come in from just about every direction, though. Also starting to layer up, and thinking of bringing in more firewood. All good things. Happy Easter to all of you who celebrate this holiday.
