Month: January 2017

BIG SUR RIVER BLOCKAGE OF CONCERN

I just received this at 3:45 pm from MoCo OES

Lew Bauman ask that I respond back to you. This has been elevated to our OES Emergency Manager who is having discussions with our Resource Management Agency on what we can do or make happen quickly.
What would be helpful is if you can reach back to the resident(s) in that area and ask that they monitor things and call 911 if things start to digress and the situation presents itself as an immediate threat. We are concerned as they are that no one is caught in any kind of flooding or dangerous situation. They should obviously remove themselves from harm’s way if the situation calls for it.
We are working as fast as possible to get some resolution to this before the river gets to a dangerous level, i.e.: flood stage.
I tried to call, but as you stated cell service is spotty at best.
I’ll keep you advised as this moves forward and if you can assist us by acting as the conduit to the residents it would be greatly appreciated.

5 mins later I got an email saying they would not be doing anything during the storm. A few minutes after that, I got an email from Carl Holm saying he had contacted SP. I am also informed that Ken Wright has contacted State Parks to get local equipment out to pull the redwoods to the bank. At present the fallen trees are diverting the river against the west side of the riverbank, undercutting more ground beneath more redwoods likely to fall. He also said there are trees across the river by the PBS state park sewer plant.

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Photos by Andrew Carlson

BigSur Kate, I just got off the phone with some of the residence that live near St. Francis church (by Fernwood) and they asked me to write you. There are 4 big redwoods that have fallen across the river there by the church blocking the river. The banks are eroding and tree size driftwood is building up on top of it. There are 4 more (even larger redwoods )that look like they may fall across that part of the river. These folks are worried that if this dams up even worse and then bursts it will flood everyone below.

NWS Forecast Update, 1/7/17

And lastly, this from NOAA tonight:

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National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey California

Updated Rainfall Totals: Significant rainfall is still forecast to occur through Monday afternoon. Here is our current thinking of how much rainfall will fall over the next 48 hours or so. 2-4″ will be likely for most urban areas across the SF/Monterey Bay Areas. Be extra cautious when driving this weekend. Ponding and flooding of roads will be a big threat. Do not try to drive through flooded roads. Stay safe.

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MoCo OES Saturday Update #1

Good morning Everyone.
Distribution to CAO + Key MoCo staff, CPOA, Elected +Staff, MoCo Vol Leadership

Just finished an NWS Weather Briefing.

Synopsis:
Timing of storm still on track. Heaviest rain starting late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Bull-eye of storm is still TBD, at least the full brunt of the storm is still fluctuating. Looks to be slightly north of MoCo we’ll still get plenty of rain and wind.
Winds this morning are gusting to 40 mph in Monterey and 46 in Big Sur, 21 in King City. Winds are forecast to be strong between 7a-10a Sunday at the same gust levels – 40+ mph.
Still anticipating 8-10″ of rain along the coast with 12-14″ in the higher elevations.
Tides – may it through high tide this morning without any reported incidents. High tide tomorrow at 7:22 a.m. and storm surge not consider to be a problem for MoCo. Tide will be at 6.45 feet with maybe a 1/2 foot storm surge.
Rain once it starts along the coast will be pretty steady and during the overnight hours is forecast to see rain rate of 1-1-1/2″ per hours for extended period.
There are some minor power outages; Carmel highlands – 56 people, Jamesburg – 28, PG 25
OES is monitoring all the time for any changes and will update as warranted. OES Duty Officer and Emergency Manager have been briefed.
I’ll continue to monitor and update as warranted.

Rain and Road Reports, 1/7/17

9 pm – and yet another one:

Incident: 00348 Type: Roadway Flooding Location: 47200 Sr1 Loc Desc: FERNWOOD RIVER AREA Lat/Lon: 36.303039 -121.880112
Detail Information
NO DETAILS

Incident: 00168 Type: Roadway Flooding Location: Sr1 / Andrew Molera State Park Loc Desc: Lat/Lon: 36.288901 -121.846554
Detail Information
12:31 PM 1 [2] 1039 CALTRANS

Noon – Three Peaks and Chalk Peak up to almost 2″

11:15 – Elkhorn Slough Rd. Expected to be closed for a month due to sink hole.

11 am – Paul’s slide puked again:

Incident: 00125 Type: Road/Weather Conditions Location: X Loc Desc: Lat/Lon: 0:0
Detail Information
10:56 AM 1 [1] SLIDE JSO LUCIA BACK AGAIN / CT 1097 / WORKING TO CLR THE RD

9:30 – So, I have posted the 20″ in 2 days model of the NAM, the 40″ in 10 days NCEP and now here is the third model, GFS. They all seem to be in agreement that we are due to be hammered. This was originally an animated GIF, but I can’t post those here, and haven’t figured out how to post to FB so here are a couple of screen shots. BTW, at 9 am, over an inch at Big Sur Station, Chalk Peak, and Three Peaks. Black Cone was at 1 and 1/2″

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5:30 am – Big Sur starts out the day with:

“As of 5 am about 0.50 inches of rain in Big Sur, 0.12 in downtown San Francisco and 0.25 around Santa Rosa. #CAStorm” per NWS. Per automatic gauges, Mining Ridge has .47″, Three Peaks has .51″ and Chalk Peak is missing its data. The heaviest rain is expected tonight into Sunday morning.

High Wind Advisories in effect through tomorrow. Howling pretty good up here.

Highway 41 Closed between MB and Atascadero

Contract being awarded to clean up this mess.

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Highway 41 will NOT reopen today, Saturday, 1/7/17

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Incident: 00234 Type: SIG Alert Location: Sr41 / Cerro Alto Rd Loc Desc: SR41 AT CERRO ALTO CAMPGROUND Lat/Lon: 35.429180 -120.751708
Detail Information
9:54 PM 2 [3] WILL BE CLOSED AT LEAST ALL NIGHT
7:30 PM 1 [1] RDWY CLOSED DUE TO MUD SLIDE

this closure is being manned. Cal Trans stopped working on it in the dark as it was too dangerous because it was still moving.

NWS Weekend Forecast update

This is by far the worst prediction 20-24″ in TWO days?? *(Insert favorite swear word here)

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…Strong storm still on track to impact our region… (I’ve edited this to make it more specific for our area, but deleting SF Info.) NOTE: Remember, watch is to signify that the even is likely, but WARNING MEANS IT IS EMINENT.

UPDATE
· In general the forecast is generally the same as yesterday.
· Flash flood watch has been posted.
· Wind advisory and high wind watch is now in effect.

IMPACTS

*Impact 1 (Rain and Flooding) :
· Widespread rainfall through the weekend.
· 2 1/2″ to 4 1/2″ for most urban areas.
· 5-10″ for higher elevation spots. Locally higher amounts possible.
· Urban and small stream flooding is likely with the potential for stream and river flooding.
· Please see attached image for locations for the Flash Flood Watch and the rain forecast.

*Impact 2 (Wind):
· Southerly winds of 20 to 35 mph can be expected with local gusts over 50 mph possible. Higher elevation locations could see gusts over 60 mph.
· Drought stressed trees and weaken roots due to wet soil may fall down as a result of these wind speeds.
· Please see the attached images for wind speed forecasts.

*Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories as of 3 pm Friday:
WFO San Francisco/Monterey – MTR (Back to Top)
Outlook
Jan 07 1:00pm PST
Monterey
County

High Wind Warning
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 22h 2m
Jan 07 1:00pm PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Lucia Mountains
Expires in: 61h 2m
Jan 09 4:00am PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Pigeon Pt to Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
· Northern Salinas Hollister & Carmel Vlys
Expires in: 22h 2m

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· San Francisco Bay Shore
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· San Francisco Penn Coast

High Wind Warning
· Santa Cruz Mountains
Expires in: 37h 2m
Jan 08 4:00am PST

Flash Flood Watch
· Santa Clara Valley
· Santa Cruz Mountains
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
Expires in: 56h 2m
Jan 08 11:00pm PST

Small Craft Advisory
· Monterey Bay
Expires in: 42h 2m
Jan 08 9:00am PST

Wind Advisory
· Northern Monterey Bay
· San Francisco Penn Coast
· Santa Clara Valley
Expires in: 22h 2m

· For all current watch/warning/advisories, http://1.usa.gov/1boSTTW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE
· Precipitation: Moderate to High
· Wind: Moderate to High

TIMING
· Through the weekend for both rainfall and winds.
· Flooding concern will continue into Monday.

LOCATIONS
· This is for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay Region.

Palo Colorado Rd. & Coast Rd. Closed thru weekend, plus additional closures

Additional Closures: Sycamore Canyon Rd. and Pfeiffer Beach except to residents, due to road washout; Andrew Molera, and most of State Park, except Lodge Area at this time. Riverside Campgrounds is also closed.
Incident:  00084   Type:    Road/Weather Conditions   Location:   Monterey County  Loc Desc:  MONTEREY CO    Lat/Lon:  36.673409 -121.640636   
Detail Information
8:56 AM 3 [3] WILL BE CLOSED OVER THE WEEKEND
8:53 AM 2 [2] COAST RD IS CLOSED F/MPM 1.6 TO 9.89
8:52 AM 1 [1] PALO COLORADO RD IS CLOSED F/MPM 4 TO THE END /BOTCHER’S GAP\

 

Rain & Road Reports, 1/5/17

2:30 pm – I am adding the following link to the Carmel River Watershed to my list of links to the right, but you might want to bookmark it. You will really want to watch this this weekend. Remember the Bailey Bridge???

Carmel River Watershed

1:15 Highway completely open.

11:45 am – Okay, got the notice from Cal Trans. Just as they were getting ready to open, Paul’s Slide (MM 21.6) dumped. Mud Creek (MM 8.8) is now open to LOCALS ONLY, who can get from Ragged Point to MM 20, but not past Pauls Slide. Another assessment at 2 pm,

9 am – Cal Trans sent out a notice that Highway One remains closed this morning. They will reassess the situation at 11 am. I will notify all here at that time, so check back around 11;30.

On another note, my AirPort Extreme quit, so I am trying to configure up an old lap top so that I can connect with my satellite, without too much luck. I can still post here and do emails with my cell service, it is just slow and sometimes intermittent.

As to FB, we are still battling, but I don’t think they will let me use BigSur Kate. I may have to use Kate “bigsurkate” Novoa. Still working with them, sort of. Despite all the comments emails, etc. They are being a horse’s a$$

Highway One to remain closed

At 3 pm, a vehicle that went around the closure had an accident at Burns Creek by hitting some rocks, which caused his car to leak fluids. Yes, that is what happens. That is why the road is closed. Use your common sense, people.

Here is one by Brendon Shave of Paul’s Slide this afternoon. The rest of these are by Cal Trans. Please feel free to share on FB, I am still banned, but almost worked out.

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There are too many active slides that cannot be stopped nor cleared before dark, so  the road will remain closed from Fuller’s to Ragged Point. All of these slides shown in the photos are on the rambunctious South Coast, of course. Thank goodness we didn’t have a fire, or we wouldn’t see anyone until Spring – still may not, if this weekend’s storm comes in as predicted. Will let you know what happens tomorrow. Here are some photos supplied by Cal Trans

Okay, top one looks like Paul’s Slide, south of Lucia. Second one looks like Mud Creek, and last one also looks like Mud Creek from the other side, but can’t be sure. Could be Villa.

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