BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 622 PM PST MON NOV 3 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS FOR PART OF THE BASINS BURN AREA IN MONTEREY COUNTY. LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BIG SUR VILLAGE AND THE VENTANA CREEK AREA. * UNTIL 645 PM PST * AT 607 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF USGS MUD AND DEBRIS FLOW THRESHOLDS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE WARNED AREA. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO HEAVY MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS WHICH MAY BLOCK ROADS AND CULVERTS. TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 180DEG 0KT 3629 12172
Category: Weather Conditions
Flooding Photos
TODAY”S FORECAST: NOAA is predicting .38 inch of rain between 4 pm and 10 pm today for the Big Sur area. See 2008 Winter Conditions to the right for the new NOAA forecast map, just sent by Charles Bell of NWS in Monterey.
These photos of the Grange and Debbie’s house and yard were sent to me this morning. What a mess, huh?
Read Debbie’s Story under Storm Watch, 11/2/08, below, or click on post to the right.
The Grange and Parking Lot
Debbie’s Yard. This was a garden that was on the Hidden Valley Garden Tour. Under all that mud is a lawn, now buried.
Debbie’s Porch and Front Door
This is what Debbie came home to, after fleeing to Glen Oaks Saturday night. Sunday morning, Don Case brought her the Sunday paper, and offered his help. This, the man in the photo with Buddha, who lost everything in the Basin Fire. Don, if you read this, you epitomize the Big Sur Spirit!
Oh, Debbie! Thank you so much for sharing your story and your photographs. They are both just so heart-wrenching. I look at these, and remember all the wonderful 4th of July parties we had out here in this garden, in the sun belt! I’ll have to locate one of my photos from then (on the other computer?) and post so people can see how beautiful it is, when not covered in mud!
And here is later in the day: “Blaze to the Rescue!”
Real-time links & Monday’s Storm
Weather reports are indicating that the Monday night storm will be much weaker than Saturday night’s storm, bringing us only between 1/10 and 1/4 of an inch of rain, probably after about 10 PM and the rest of the week is predicted to be dry. Good news, both.
Thanks to Tom Hopkins, President of the VWA, I added two new links under “2008 Winter Conditions.” One is from the automatic weather reports at the MIRA Observatory on Chews Ridge, and the next one is the NOAA river discharge rates for the Big Sur River. These are “real-time” computerized reports, and should be very valuable as we keep an eye on things this winter. Thanks, Tom!
Also, I added a “real time” link to the automatic rain gauge on the Big Creek Reserve, up by Highlands Peak, thanks to Dr. Mark Readdie!
We are getting a good collection of sources of information so we can be aware and prepare this winter!
Storm Watch, 11/2/08
DEBBIE’S STORY:
Got a call from Debbie this morning. She lives at Juan Higuera Creek and the Big Sur River, for those who do not know her. She ran out of her house last night with nothing but the clothes on her back. One car was up on higher ground, but if she opened the door to the Explorer, the water would have rushed in. So she set out on foot, through mud up almost to her thighs, with Molly, her younger yellow lab walking with her up to the highway, by flashlight. Billy, the older yellow lab, had to be left behind, as he cannot walk well, and is WAY to big to carry.
“It all happened so fast,” she said.
BUT Blaze Engineering came to the rescue — Tevye Morgenrath and Dave Martin — with their BIG equipment. Tevye got Billy into the bucket of the loader, and drove him up to Glen Oaks, where Debbie was!! Her house is covered in mud, the porch is pretty much gone, but she and the dogs are okay, thanks to Blaze, who also redirected the water away from her house and back to the Big Sur River. What a story! She will send me photos tomorrow. She wishes she got one of Billy in the loader’s bucket!
And all of us who love Debbie send BIG hugs and kisses to Blaze Engineering’s Tevye and Dave for helping our friend during this winter storm event! Thanks, so much!!
And here’s a photo from this morning, just for grins. You’ve all seen my view to the north hundreds of times, during the fire. Here’s one looking south. That is Los Burros or Willow Creek top in the back.
9:30 AM Road conditions: As reported earlier this morning, the road is open again. However, as we all know, it could close again at any time, particularly at night, when Cal-Trans no longer patrols. For the next four months, use caution while traveling Highway One, particularly between Andrew Molera and Mill Creek, and particularly at night!
Juan Higuera Creek: Joyce Duffy just called with an “on the ground” report that the culvert and small bridge on JH Creek just before you get to The Grange is clogged and the river is now flowing OVER the bridge, through the parking lot of the Grange. Debbie is out, with her animals, thank god. Joyce just walked this area, and is going to higher ground herself.
Storm conditions: Reports from the north, and conditions here on the ridge, seem to indicate this storm is over, with a rainfall of 2.4 inches, or 2.9 for the season.
Predictions are that another storm will be arriving Monday night. I have not heard about the strength or timing of this storm, yet.
Interesting to compare rain totals down here at different elevations. At Highlands Peak, at Big Creek Reserve, the 24-hour total is 1.78″ at an elevation of 2490′; at Plaskett Ridge top the 24-hour total is 2.4″ (mine doesn’t do 1/100ths) at an elevation of 3272′ (okay, the rain gauge itself is probably only at 3200′, but I don’t have an altimeter); Mining Ridge is 2.91″ at an elevation of 4790′. (Mining Ridge is at the confluence of Big Creek and Devil’s Peak, north of Cone Peak). Fascinating the relationship between elevation and rainfall. Well, at least to me.
8:30 AM – Just had a serious cloud burst, here. Probably 1/10 of an inch in 10 minutes. Is letting up somewhat, now.
7:30 AM This “unofficial” report:
“Just got off the phone with Tom at Lucia. He says CalTrans has been by this morning and road is open now. Just lots of rocks down but, not any slides to speak of. The road at the [Coast Gallery] had some big rocks come down there according to Danny.” Reported by Keith. Thanks for this, Keith.
6:30 AM – 2.3 inches for this Saturday/Sunday storm. Season total: 2.8
5:30 AM Still raining. Will get rain totals when it is light and I can see the gauge. CHP reports below on closure. As I understand it, MM 46 is in the area around Sycamore Canyon Rd:
Storm Watch, 11/1/08
HEADS UP, EVERYONE!
jack is reporting: Posted by Jack
Mud is flowing onto Hwy 1 between Fernwood and Pfeiffer Big Sur State Park.
Redwood Creek is flowing over the culvert bridge/driveway inside the park.
9 PM Highway One reported closed 4 miles south of Lucia. Cal-Trans reports: [IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA]
IS CLOSED FROM 7.9 MI NORTH OF GORDA TO 6.2 MI NORTH OF PFEIFFER BURNS
STATE PARK (MONTEREY CO) AT 2053 HRS ON 11/1/08 – DUE TO ROCKS IN THE ROADWAY –
MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
I am on back-up power, so won’t be reporting until tomorrow am, but Dave Allen reports that the rains are significant in Carmel, about an hour ago, which means it will be arriving here shortly. PLEASE, stay safe, everyone!
6:30 PM – we are just over 1/2 an inch at the moment, around .6. So far, so good. However, I note roadway flooding is being reported in the NB lane of Highway 17 up in Santa Cruz County at the moment. Hope that is not indicative of what is coming our way. According to the NOAA precipitation map (see 2008 Winter Conditions link) Ben Lomand has received 3.4 inches in the last 24 hours. Mining Ridge (closest to me of the permanent reporting gauges) is showing .67, consistent with what I am reporting.
1/2 inch by 4:30 PM
Only 1/4 inch by 2 PM.
11:15 AM – Rain has begun, a little early. What better way to spend a Saturday than watching the rain gauge? Oh, and you might note, I added a new link category, “2008 Winter Conditions” to the blog roll, and turned off some of the fire-related ones. Here you will find links to Cal-Trans, CHP, Weather, and surfire2008. While I will post important information from all sites here, you may also want to check yourself. The fire-related links be back next fire season. For the next four months or so, 2008 Winter Conditions will be much more important for us to stay abreast. I will add more helpful links, as I find them.
9:30 AM – Winds picking up. Everything is either covered, closed, and/or battened down. Rain gauge emptied. I am ready. Here’s the national weather report:
DAY ONE...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WETTER LOCATIONS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS OF MONTEREY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS IMMINENT.
7:30 AM – No rain overnight. Season total = .50 inches. Will report throughout the day.
Emergency South Coast email list
I sent out a test message tonight to those email addresses I have. I have set up an emergency email list, called “Storm Watch 2008.” If you did not receive this test message, and you want to be on the email list, send me an email at: kwnovoa@mac.com with “Storm Watch 2008” in the title, and I will add your name to the list.
Unless it is an immediate emergency, this blog will still be the major source of my reporting of information. Also, for those out of the area who want to remain updated, everything I send via the emergency email list will also be posted here, so you will not need to be on the email list. Of course, you are always free to call me, too, if you are away from your email and want to check on conditions. Again, my number is 831-818-8026. If that number is ever out of service, for any reason (like the time I lost my charger), the voice mail will direct you to my other number.
Let’s hope this winter will not bring the dire predictions we are hearing about. OTOH, it is better to be prepared and not need it, then not prepared, and need it, as we all know.
I will be following the rain totals throughout tomorrow afternoon and evening. Otherwise, I’ll be home working. Have a peaceful, relaxing Hallowe’en, everyone! Remember, tomorrow night, daylight savings time ends. And with that, I bid you goodnight.
Storm Watch, 10/31/08
6:00 PM – Rain totals: .25 for storm; .50 for season. Tomorrow afternoon should be interesting, and I will report on rain activity as necessary.
NOON – Slight rain, on and off, nothing to speak of or even measure. Will continue to provide rain totals three times a day on the days when I am home, for those interested.
7:30 AM -Rain gauge total this am is .25 inches here at 3272′ in the Santa Lucia Mountains for the storm, .50 inches for the season. Very mild indeed. Still some wind, but pretty quiet.
Sorry about the fonts and spacing. Can’t seem to get it to change, line up, or do anything I want it to do. The information is there, it is just hard to read.
ICS being instituted by Frank Pinney, who reports at 7:OO am, including the weather predictions for our area:
ICS Core Group: Below is the National Weather Service prognostication for today and the weekend. Note the potential for 3” of rain in the Santa Lucia Mtns coincides with the number spoken at the SEAT meeting Wed night by the forecaster. (Total up to 4” for the system) Let me know by email now if you will be available Saturday for consultation by phone or email or both. I do not expect that we will need to convene at the MAF during this event, and it will be an opportunity to observe how information about the storm conditions gets to us and can be used to correlate what’s happening on the ground. Anyone have rain gauge figures storm-to-date from your location? The period of most likely storm activity appears to be Sat PM into the evening. I have some of your cell # but not all. Please send the number if you have one and we don’t regularly contact each other by cell. Thanks for your diligence. We will try to keep everyone up to date on developments. I take comfort in my Mom’s counsel, “Our worst fears never happen.” Frank AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA 444 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2008 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:57 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT LAST EVENING BUT ONLY DROPPED LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST FROM ABOUT SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. KMUX IS CURRENTLY SHOWING RESPECTABLE REFLECTIVITY RATES OF UP TO 40 DBZ WITH THIS RAIN BAND... ALTHOUGH THESE REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALOFT... AROUND 7000-8000 FEET AGL. AFTER THIS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR A DECREASING SHOWER TREND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASING AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM...AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO END AT THAT TIME AS CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM DUE IN ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS (I.E. SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES). THE SATURDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR SINCE THURSDAY. THE MODELS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON TIMING...INCREASING LIGHT WARM-ADVECTION RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SF BAY AREA...AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE COASTAL HILLS...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. THAT MUCH RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY A CAUSE FOR CONCERN IN THE BURN AREAS...PARTICULARLY IF THE BULK OF IT FALLS WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS OF NOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE BURN AREAS OF SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AND WINDS ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN PICK UP MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
On Top of the World in the First Storm
Weathering a storm up here is always exciting, exhilarating, and adrenaline pumping. Winds up here have been recorded at 140 mph. Yup, Category 5 type winds. Those are the times when I cover all the windows, for fear they will blow out; when I cannot walk upright outside without holding on to a railing; when the trailer where I sleep is rockin’ and rollin’ to the sounds of Elvis pumping out the tunes in the heavens. My cottage is much tamer. But tonight, the storm is mild, compared to what I can and do get. There are winds, which will stop when the rains begin, but the winds are only in the 30-40 mph range. Mild for The Top of the World. The dogs aren’t freaking out — that’s a clue that this one isn’t bad, at all.
So, I’m settled in, my silk long johns as my pjs, the down comforter on the bed, the tv going, mostly as background, and a new scary book by Dean Koontz to see me through the storm. Plenty of food, plenty of gas, plenty of things to do. I always enjoy the first storms; the first snow; the first of winter’s slower pace. Ah, yes, I am ready for that slower pace.
Meanwhile, I will be praying for all my north coast friends, hoping this weekend’s series of storms are as gentle as can be.
Fires, Floods, Elections
While I have been paying attention to the election, my blog has not. Too many other things to pay attention to. But now, with the election just around the corner, and many of my lawyer friends leaving in the next few days to be impartial observers in key states around the nation, it is time to chime in.
I have very strong views about what is right with this election, and what is wrong. However, my strongest view is that we need the largest turnout in the history of voting next Tuesday. Everyone who is registered to vote needs to exercise that power and responsibility, please. It is important.
Also, several weeks ago, I discovered one of the most delightful blogs: http://margaretandhelen.wordpress.com
Margaret doesn’t write, but Helen does. Helen is 82 years old, living in Texas, and best friends with Margaret for 60 years. Her grandson helped her start this blog a year and a half ago. She is witty, insightful, and opinionated. She has had a lot to say about this election, particularly Ms. Palin. If you want a good laugh, go see her blog. SNL, Rose O’Donnel, and many others have linked to her. I want to see her reach 1,000,000 hits by Election Day. She’s at 667,000 currently, so pass the word. You won’t regret it!
Oh, and she is listed in my blog roll to the right, if you forget how to find her.
First “winter” storm
10/30/08 – 10:00 AM
The winds here have really picked up. The Monterey Herald is reporting a chance of thunderstorms tonight, and again on Saturday night. Weather.com is NOT predicting such an event, but it IS predicting a wind event, with gusts up to 45 mph. Could be an interesting weekend, that is for sure! Hang in there, everyone, and above all, BE SAFE, especially my friends in flood-prone areas. Are you reading this gals?? You know who you are!!
Also, please mark your calendars for two items. CPOA annual meeting on Nov. 6th, and a special art showing at the Hermitage on Nov. 8th. Details of both events are posted on the announcement page.
Dave Allen sent me the info re this storm that is coming. There are apparently two, one Thursday night into Friday, and a second, Saturday into Sunday. Small craft advisories have been issued. Here are the stats:
THU SW WINDS 15 TO 30 KT...OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. MIXED SWELL NW 2 TO 4 FT AT 11 SECONDS AND S 2 FT AT 14 SECONDS. THU NIGHT SW WINDS 15 TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT. W SWELL 3 TO 5 FT AT 11 SECONDS AND S 2 FT AT 13 SECONDS. SHOWERS LIKELY. FRI SE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT. W SWELL 3 TO 5 FT AND S 2 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN. SAT SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 6 FT. W SWELL 5 TO 7 FT INCREASING TO 9 TO 11 FT. RAIN LIKELY. SUN SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 10 TO 13 FT AND S 2 FT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. Dave also sent me a satellite photo, but technical difficulties are preventing me from posting it here, so check out your favorite weather station. Santa Maria is reporting that Thursday/Friday is not going to be much but the Saturday/Sunday system might bring significant rain. Get ready, boys and girls, this seems to be the beginning.